FEBRUARY 8 EU APPROVAL UNLIKELY: GEORGIA BMO

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRUSSELS 000541 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/07/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV GG EUN OSCE RU USEU BRUSSELS SUBJECT: FEBRUARY 8 EU APPROVAL UNLIKELY: GEORGIA BMO REF: STATE 21669 Classified By: USEU POLOFF TODD HUIZINGA. REASONS: 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Poloff delivered reftel demarche on February 7 to key Solana adviser Kees van Rij (protect),Head of the EU Council Secretariat Policy Unit Task Force on the Caucasus, and Mario SIPDIS Mariani (protect),OSCE desk officer in the External Relations Directorate-General of the European Commission. They both said they would circulate our points and ensure that they receive consideration at the February 8 EU Political and Security Committee (PSC) meeting. Van Rij said the PSC had three main options on the table: (1) the preferred option, namely to make some "tweaks" in order to get Russian agreement on continuing the OSCE Border Monitoring Operation (BMO); (2) a Georgia BMO run by the EU under the OSCE aegis; and (3) a fall-back train-and-equip program for Georgia. Van Rij remarked that these three options appeared to fit well with reftel points. ¶2. (C) Both van Rij and Mariani predicted a consensus in favor of an EU BMO would likely not/not be an outcome of the February 8 PSC meeting, given the reticence of some EU member states to risk offending Russia. Both also said that Russian agreement to continuing the OSCE BMO remained highly unlikely. Van Rij said he was traveling, with Luxembourg EU presidency reps, to Vienna on February 14, where EU-OSCE talks would include the BMO issue. Finally, van Rij said the issue would be on the agenda of the EU-Russia Ministerial Troika on February 28. SCHNABEL .