EU WILL NOT MEET SYRIA AT THE UNGA; WANTS TO KNOW

S E C R E T BRUSSELS 003276 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER SY USEU BRUSSELS SUBJECT: EU WILL NOT MEET SYRIA AT THE UNGA; WANTS TO KNOW LONG TERM STRATEGY REF: STATE 159137 Classified By: POLMINCOUNS Kyle Scott for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (S) SUMMARY. Syria has not yet approached the EU for possible meetings during the UNGA, but officials assure us they will send a unified position against high level meetings. END SUMMARY. ¶1. (S) Mission drew on reftel points in a September 6 discussion with EU Special Representative for the Middle East Peace Process, Marc Otte. He said that he is not surprised by Syria's attempt to conduct a "charm offensive" at the UNGA summit. Although the EU has not yet been approached, Otte is certain the Syrians will approach all EU member states. In fact, the Austrian government has already asked Otte for his guidance, following presentation of our demarche in Vienna. Otte confirmed that the EU will continue in the same line, sending unified messages to the Syrians, using the Roed-Larsen channel. Otte said he has not been in Damascus since before the Hariri assassination. Since then the EU has abstained from meeting and their only contact has been through the Barcelona Process. ¶2. (S) Otte cautioned that this unified message cannot last forever. Otte wants us to develop a long term strategy assessing the reasons for the isolation and defining what we would consider progress. There are social currents in Syria that want to see things change. We need to support those currents, and that will require some kind of engagement at some time in the future. ¶3. (S) Regarding Barcelona, Otte asked for U.S. views on Syrian participation at the Barcelona 10th anniversary meeting. It would be difficult to try to exclude member states from this heads of state level meeting. Otte also asked for U.S. views on coordination with other Arab countries. The Arab League, for example, continues to have a Syrian delegation. ¶4. (S) In a separate meeting, Wolfgang Barwinkle, from the Council's Middle East Directorate, agreed the Asad regime has an abysmal record. However, he opined that Syria has the potential to develop into another Iraq and suggested the current regime might be better than what could replace it. He labeled Asad a weak dictator, and suggested it is potentially more dangerous to isolate his regime. That said, Barwinkle confirmed that the EU would remain on message regarding Syria. He promised to advise us if the Syrians approach the EU. .