PREVIEW OF JUNE 13 EU FOREIGN MINISTERS' MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 002252 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/10/2015 TAGS: PREL EAID PGOV EUN USEU BRUSSELS SUBJECT: PREVIEW OF JUNE 13 EU FOREIGN MINISTERS' MEETING REF: A. STATE 105235 ¶B. USEU BRUSSELS 2231 ¶C. USEU BRUSSELS 2165 Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reason 1.4 (B/D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Much of EUFMs' energy at the June 13 GAERC will focus on preparing the June 16-17 EU Summit, especially negotiations on the EU budget and failed Constitutional Treaty. Decisions on Uzebkistan and CUBA should be as reported REFs B and C. Other topics are unlikely to produce much news, although there may be some debate about how clearly either the GAERC or the EU Summit should reaffirm the EU's commitment to continued enlargement, and on how to handle Croatia. China should not be discussed next week, but will almost certainly be on the agenda at the July 18 GAERC. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (SBU) We delivered REF A points on the upcoming General Affairs and External Relations Council meeting to Judith Gebestroithner of Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner's cabinet on June 10. Also on June 10 Luxembourg Perm Rep Martine Schommer provided a background briefing for the press on the Presidency's expectations for the June 13 GAERC. Both noted that a major focus of the EUFMs will be on preparing the agenda for the EU Summit on June 16-17, where the dominating issues will be how the EU responds to the French and Dutch rejections of the EU's Constitutional Treaty, and an effort to reach final agreement on the EU budget framework for 2007-2013. Both items remain under serious debate within the EU, and neither outcome is clear at this point. MIDDLE EAST -------------- ¶3. (SBU) In response to REF A points, Gebestroithner indicated there was likely to be no real news from the GAERC on the Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Middle East points. Participants in the EU-3 negotiations with Iran and in the EU Troika visit to Baghdad will report, but no new EU policies toward either country are expected to be decided. (NOTE: We understand from a Council source, however, that at least one EU Member State is urging the EU to name an EU Special Representative for Iraq. END NOTE.) Schommer told the press that the June 16-17 EU Summit would likely issue a declaration on the Middle East Peace Process, but did not discuss details of what would be in it. BALKANS AND ENLARGEMENT -------------- ¶4. (C) On the Balkans, FMs will discuss a joint paper on the EU role in Kosovo prepared by High Rep Solana and Commissioner Rehn (a copy of the paper - strictly protect - has been sent to EUR/ERA and SCE). A Declaration supporting the ideas in the paper and echoing recent language from Contact Group meetings will also be issued at the June 16-17 Summit. GAERC Conclusions will also take note of recent developments in Bosnia-Herzegovina, expressing regrets over the failure to agree on police reforms. The EU Task Force on Croatia will also meet on Sunday, June 12 to consider the most recent letter from ICTY Prosecutor Del Ponte (copy sent to EUR/ERA and SCE). While most of our contacts indicate that Del Ponte's letter will compel the EU to continue postponing Croatia's accession negotiations, Gebestroithner (who is also an Austrian diplomat) indicated the Austrian government would likely insist on a discussion of the issue during the GAERC lunch. ¶5. (C) Gebestroithner added that the Luxembourg Presidency was proposing that the EU Summit Conclusions on June 17 should include a reaffirmation the EU's commitment from Thessaloniki in 2003 that the Balkan states have a European perspective. The current draft Summit Conclusions also would repeat the December 2004 European Council's decision that accession negotiations with Turkey should open on October 3, assuming Turkey meets the conditions related to Cyprus. Gebestroithner stressed, however, that these draft Summit Conclusions had not yet been agreed by all 25 EU Member States. CENTRAL ASIA/UZBEKISTAN -------------- ¶6. (C) The GAERC will also consider the situation in Uzbekistan. As reported in REF B, the EU is considering tougher measures against Uzbekistan that it might take if the GoU rejects the EU's call for agreement by end of June on a commission of inquiry into the events in Andijon. Gebestroithner and Schommer both indicated, however, that what precise measures might be taken was still under discussion and unlikely to be included in the June 13 GAERC Conclusions. Gebestroithner also added that the Commission was very reluctant to see the EU's Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) affected by any punitive measures, although the proposal was under discussion in the Council. Schommer told the press the GAERC would likely agree in principle to name an EU Special Representative for Central Asia. CUBA -------------- ¶7. (C) As reported REF C, the EU is unlikely to make any significant changes to its policy on Cuba. Gebestroithner said that, while there would be some discussion of CUBA at the GAERC, it might be so brief that it was unclear if Development Commissioner Michel would even bother to attend. TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS -------------- ¶8. (U) The GAERC would discuss preparations for the US-EU Summit on June 20 and the Canada-EU Summit on June 19, but this was unlikely to be a major topic of EU FMs' discussions. UNITED NATIONS -------------- ¶9. (U) The GAERC will also issue Conclusions on preparations for the September UN Summit. Schommer indicated a focus would be on the EU's support for "effective multilateralism" and the UN reform process. CHINA -------------- ¶10. (U) Gebestroithner confirmed that there should be no discussion of China or the Code of Conduct at the June 13 GAERC. But she did note that China would be on the agenda of the July 18 GAERC in the British Presidency, as that would be the last GAERC prior to the EU-China Summit on September 5. (NOTE: According to the calendar we have for the UK Presidency, the informal EUFMs' Gymnich meeting will be held on September 1-2, however, just prior to the China Summit. END NOTE.) SCHNABEL .