COMMISSION AND COUNCIL EXPECT SHORT GAERC MEETING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001593 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2015 TAGS: PREL EAID KPAL IZ LE ZI CG SU EUN USEU BRUSSELS SUBJECT: COMMISSION AND COUNCIL EXPECT SHORT GAERC MEETING ON APRIL 25 REF: A. STATE 72185 ¶B. USEU BRUSSELS 1550 Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolOff, Reasons 1.4 (B/D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (U) A shorter than normal GAERC on April 25 is unlikely to take any significant decisions on external relations topics. On the Middle East, the GAERC is exepcted to issue Conclusions on the MEPP, Iraq and Lebanon. Africa discussion will focus on the Great Lakes, with any new decisions on Zimbabwe or Sudan likely to await further assessment of these situations. A discussion on Russia should focus almost entirely on preparations for the May 10 EU-Russia Summit. EUFMs are unlikely to have much substantive discussion on the Balkans, although the first meeting of an ad hoc Task Force on Croatia and its cooperation with the ICTY will meet in the GAERC margins on April 25 (septel). END SUMMARY. ¶2. (U) In response to Ref A points, Commission and Council sources told us they expect a rather short discussion on external relations topics at the April 25 General Affairs and External Relations Council (GAERC) in Luxembourg. Media attention will be more focused on the signing ceremony that afternoon of the EU Accession Treaty for Romania and Bulgaria, and EU FMs will end the GAERC early to participate in that event. Much of the morning GAERC discussion will also be taken up by discussion of the Luxembourg Presidency's most recent proposals on the framework for negotiating the EU's 2007-2013 budget, despite the fact that no serious budget negotiations will begin until after the May 5 UK elections and May 29 French referendum. MIDDLE EAST TOPICS -------------- ¶3. (SBU) GAERC discussions on the MEPP and Iraq should follow familiar lines, although a Council source expressed some questions about how the GAERC might respond to reports that the Israeli Defense Minister has proposed a delay of the Gaza withdrawal. On Iraq, the Luxembourg Presidency plans to brief ministers on the modalities for the upcoming international conference, following the visit of U.S. Iraq Coordinator Amb. Jones to Brussels on April 21, but wants to avoid negotiating details of the conference with the 25 member states. ¶4. (C) On Lebanon, External Relations (RELEX) Commissioner Ferrero-Waldner's cabinet told us the EU would reiterate its earlier readiness to assist with electoral preparations. Beyond that, our contact said the April 16 Gymnich discussion on Lebanon established a strong consensus that the EU should be prepared to step in quickly to support a new government post-elections. The Commissioner returned from the Gymnich eager to act on this view and has asked RELEX staff to begin preparations for a technical assessment mission even before the elections are held, so that the EU can respond "faster than we usually do." AFRICA -------------- ¶5. (C) Africa discussions at the GAERC will focus largely on the Great Lakes. The EU remains concerned DR Congo's draft constitution does not contain sufficient balance of powers to ensure democratic governance. The "winner takes all" system could be a catalyst for post-election violence, since losers will have no incentive to support the new government. Furthermore, it will generate another autocratic regime on the continent. Another area of concern is the slow pace of the DRC's security sector reform. The EU is pleased with developments relating to MONUC and feels that AU peacekeepers will not be necessary if an integrated Congolese force can help MONUC ensure stability. High Rep Solana and Commissioner Michel will visit Kinshasa Apirl 29 to press these points. ¶6. (C) A Commission source said the UK was pressing for the EU to respond to developments in Zimbabwe, but other member states were not so ready to react. The EU is still assessing the impact of Zimbabwe's election; only at a later GAERC are they likely to discuss possible measures (such as expanding the travel ban list). On Sudan, the EU shares our concern about the deteriorating food situation. They are still examining the technical aspects of expanding the AU mission. RUSSIA -------------- ¶7. (C) Ferrero-Waldner's cabinet said the GAERC discussion on Russia would focus entirely on the EU-Russia Summit, and the Summit agenda should be focused on agreements over the four "common spaces." The Commission is "still optimistic" that all four can be agreed by the Summit, although our source acknowledged this would only be possible by agreeing language that leaves some critical issues for further negotiations. It is doubtful agreement will be found by May 10 on the dispute over Siberian overflights, or on procedures for a readmission agreement on illegal migrants. The Commission expects that other issues of concern with Russia such as human rights, or rule of law and the business environment (Yukos or BP cases) would only be raised on the margins. OTHER ISSUES -------------- ¶8. (SBU) The Commission on April 20 proposed a package of measures, drawing on the post-tsunami experience in December, on how the EU can improve its disaster response. The Commission expects member states to ask for more time to review the proposals, and serious debate on these topics will come only in May. On the Balkans, the Commission expects the GAERC to easily agree on it's recommendation that the EU begin negotiations on a Stabilization and Association Agreement with Serbia and Montenegro later this year. GAERC Conclusions should also be issued on recent developments in Macedonia (see REF B for details). MCKINLEY .