SLOVAKIA POLITICAL ROUNDUP, DECEMBER 12, 2005

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000979 SIPDIS FOR EUR/NCE E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM PINR ETRD SOCI BO LO SUBJECT: SLOVAKIA POLITICAL ROUNDUP, DECEMBER 12, 2005 REF: A. BRATISLAVA 936 ¶B. BRATISLAVA 948 ¶C. BRATISLAVA 950 Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D ). SLOVAKIA TO INCREASE FOCUS ON BELARUS -------------- ¶1. (C) SMK MP Laszlo Nagy told Poloff on December 7 that the SMK party continues to develop venues through which to promote democracy in Belarus. Having signed agreements with opposition parties in Minsk already, Nagy said that he has met with the Minister of Education to begin discussions of bringing Belarusian students to Slovakia on study stays, and has begun working through the private sector to get Slovak businesses -- many of whom do business with Belarusian partners -- to finance reform efforts in Belarus. In addition, Slovakia has been working with the V-4 to coordinate "message" and determine at what level such a message should be delivered (Nagy mentioned the possibility of Javier Solana traveling to Minsk to demarche the Lukashenko regime),and said that SMK -- through MFA State Secretary Berenyi -- may dedicate as much as 70 percent of SIPDIS its 2006 foreign aid budget to democracy promotion in Belarus. THOSE FAMILIAR FACES AT THE PROTEST? SMER MPS -------------- - ¶2. (C) Katarina Nevedalova, a young Smer activist who is involved in the party's foreign affairs and youth portfolios, told Poloff that Chairman Robert Fico was "quite pleased" with the Smer party congress on December 3, which yielded no significant changes to the party's platform or organization and insured stability moving in to next year's election cycle. While some Smer members remain "SDL members at heart" following SDL's merger with Smer last December, Nevedalova told Poloff that other members have embraced their new party and have leadership positions within Smer. Nevedalova noted that many of the participants in the Smer party congress used the mid-day break to walk the short distance to the government offices, where they joined protesting police employees in their rally for higher pay and more benefits (see para 5). (COMMENT: KDH Minister of the Interior Vladimir Palko would not be surprised by the news that Smer members were joining his police officers in the rally, as he has been claiming from the onset that the rallies are more motivated by politics than labor issues. END COMMENT.) ¶3. (C) When asked about Smer's performance in the regional elections (ref B),Nevedalova said Fico was pleased with the outcome, which showed that the party had significant "coalition potential." Nevedalova said Smer "will enter the elections as a single party and will worry about coalitions the next day." Still, she admitted, some options were more attractive than others, especially given the "personality conflicts" between Fico and several other party heads. DOES SMER HAVE THE SUPPORT IT THINKS IT HAS? -------------- ¶4. (C) Despite the high polling numbers often cited by Smer party leaders, the party may not have the support it thinks it has. During a meeting with the head of the Mayor's office in Liptovsky Mikulas, Poloff was told that voters in that region "see through" Smer's facade and consider them "the same as the Communists who used to occupy this (the mayor's) office." Additionally, Slovak pollster Pavel Haulik told DCM that Smer has a young and therefore "unstable" voter base that will not show up on election day. He believes that the party pays too much attention to polling in shaping its message. Instead, Haulik said, the party should soften its "negative" rhetoric and focus on offering concrete proposals. POLICE PROTEST AGAIN -------------- ¶5. (SBU) In another in a string of police protests in Bratislava, 3,000 officers -- augmented by representatives from EuroCop, a Europe-wide law enforcement trade union -- protest low wages as well as the decision by Minister of the Interior Vladimir Palko to demote the head of the Slovak police union in the days following the previous protest on October 25. One sign that drew media attention and the ire of many onlookers was one policeman's sign stating that "If police officers aren't paid by the state, the mafia will gladly step in." Palko, who has taken a rhetorical beating from socialist European Parliament members in Brussels for his tough stance, declared the protest yet another "small coup" within his Ministry; no follow-up actions have been taken, but some police officials tell us that they feel the protests have become counter-productive and that they are losing confidence in the labor union's leadership. UKRAINE, SLOVAKIA TO INCREASE ENERGY SECTOR COOPERATION -------------- -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Ukrainian Charge told DCM on November 29 that the late November visit of Ukrainian Prime Minister Yuriy Yekhanurov went "extremely well," and that Dzurinda and Yekhanurov agreed to more economic cooperation, particularly in the energy sector. Ukraine will export gas to the Czech Republic via Slovakia; Slovak companies, in turn, are joining in the privatization of electrical power in Ukraine. MIKLOS: ELECTION DATE A TEST OF HRUSOVSKY'S LOYALTY -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Finance Minister Ivan Miklos told Ambassador that he is looking forward to the announcement of the national election date next summer, as it will be very important for SDKU. Two dates are possible -- September 9 and September 16 -- and the September 16 date would, in effect, extend an already long Holiday weekend in Slovakia. If Hrusovsky chooses September 16, SDKU's urban voter base will likely be away for the weekend, which could hurt SDKU at the polls. Thus, Miklos said that the announcement of the date by Chairman of Parliament Pavol Hrusovsky will be an "important test of loyalty" for the coalition. Miklos also told the Ambassador that he feels Freedom Forum (SF) could meet the five percent parliamentary threshold in the national elections. OECD: SLOVAKS FOURTH FATEST PEOPLE IN WORLD -------------- ¶8. (U) In the OECD's 2005 international rankings for adult obesity, the United States remained in first place, followed by Mexico, Britain and then the Slovak Republic. VALLEE NNNN