SLOVAKIA'S VIEWS OF U.S. POLICY TOWARD BELARUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000861 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2015 TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM EAID PGOV BO LO EUN SUBJECT: SLOVAKIA'S VIEWS OF U.S. POLICY TOWARD BELARUS REF: A. (A) STATE 188900 ¶B. (B) BRATISLAVA 00804 Classified By: CDA LAWRENCE R. SILVERMAN FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Charge discussed Deputies Committee decisions on policy toward Belarus (ref A) with MFA Director for CIS and Balkans Stefan Rozkopal Oct. 21. Rozkopal provided a preliminary reaction to some of the points, but said the GOS hoped to have a clearer picture of the situation and how to influence it after he and MFA PolDir Miro Lajcak visit Belarus December 4-6. Lajcak will meet with opposition figures as well as the Lukashenko government during his visit. ¶2. (C) Among GOS initial, informal reactions: -- GOS shares view that EU is not moving fast or far enough on Belarus. The EU is also taking an unwarranted break from re-focusing its attention on Ukraine. -- The one-time tough, direct approach to Lukashenko is good as a shot across his bow and a marker for future relations with the regime, but Lukashenko will not budge an inch. Slovakia expects him to run and obviously win the elections. Neither internal nor external forces will be able to affect this outcome, although that should not stop support for democratic forces. -- The world will have to decide whether to recognize a Lukashenko victory in the 2006 elections, regardless of our position on his candidacy. This will depend on the conduct of the elections. The EU has agreed at the working level whether to consider his candidacy illegal, and he expected that stance to be endorsed. Rozkopal asked on a strictly informal basis whether there might be public or private U.S. funding for Slovak election observers, either directly or as part of a larger delegation of Visegrad 4 observers. -- There is a role for engagement of GOB officials. Belarus Deputy FM Alexander Mikhnevitch recently visited Bratislava to discuss economic issues, and the Slovak Deputy Minister of Culture is visiting Minsk now to open a cultural center there. Mikhnevitch raised the issue of EU limits on Belarus textiles and asked for help against the prospect of further EU sanctions, which he argued would only hurt the little man by increasing unemployment. Rozkopal noted that a strong anti-EU campaign in Belarus is helping Lukashenko. -- Relations between Russian President Putin and Lukashenko were "very good," in Slovakia,s view; there was no sign of a positive evolution of Russian views. -- The GOS is very supportive of getting radio and perhaps TV broadcasting going as soon as possible. Having studied data on the Belarus radio audience, Slovakia concluded that most programming should be done in Russian, with a minority of time devoted to broadcasting in Belorussian. ¶3. (C) As we were leaving Rozkopal,s office, Slovak MP Lazlo Nagy was stopping by to provide Rozkopal a briefing on his own recent visit to Minsk to attend a Congress of Democratic Forces gathering. Nagy, the Chairman of the Slovak parliament,s Human Rights Committee and someone who works hard to promote human rights issues both inside and outside Slovakia, has invited Belarus opposition leader Milinkevich to visit Bratislava soon. SILVERMAN NNNN