HZDS: OLD DOG MECIAR CAN STILL LEARN NEW TRICKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000854

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL KDEM LO
SUBJECT: HZDS: OLD DOG MECIAR CAN STILL LEARN NEW TRICKS

Classified By: Ambassador Rodolphe M. Vallee for Reasons
1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: During an October 19 lunch, HZDS
leadership (minus Meciar, whom we did not invite) told
Ambassador that the party cannot exist without Vladimir
Meciar, that they are working "behind the scenes" to reach
out to the current coalition, that Meciar (an "old dog who
can still learn new tricks") has ruled out ever serving as
Prime Minister again, and that the party will instead
consider "success" in next year's elections the return of
HZDS to a ruling coalition. Despite the overtures they are
making to the current coalition of SDKU, SMK, and KDH, the
HZDS leadership told us that they cannot rule out any course
of action. Still, when asked to look into the crystal ball
and predict what the government will look like in a year,
almost all agreed that it will involve a partnership between
HZDS and SDKU. END SUMMARY.

MECIAR'S EMISSARY: WE'RE REACHING OUT TO THE COALITION
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2. (C) During an October 19 lunch with HZDS MPs Milan
Urbani, Tibor Mikus, Katarina Tothova, and Diana Strofova,
Urbani -- Meciar's designated "emissary" to the United States
Embassy -- told us that HZDS is growing in popularity,
particularly with the young and the "forty-something" crowd.
The MPs speculated that this bump was due to Slovaks finally
getting over the mistakes of the 1990's, when Tothova -- then
Minister of Justice -- said disingenuously that HZDS was
forced to make "bad concessions" to its then-coalition
partners, particularly SNS. (Comment: Tothova was the most
unreconstructed of the group. End Comment). Tothova said
that she could see HZDS working together with Prime Minister
Dzurinda's SDKU party, and Urbani, who had opened the
luncheon by saying that all options were on the table for
HZDS in the upcoming elections, tipped his hand and admitted
that HZDS was reaching out to the current coalition. Urbani
was particularly interested in how the United States would
react to a SDKU-SMK-KDH-HZDS coalition government; the
Ambassador told Urbani that the USG is interested in having
Slovaks choose their own leaders in an election that is free,
fair, and transparent. He also laid down a marker on
Meciar's past transgressions and expressed our support for
many of the policies Slovakia has followed since Meciar's
fall.


3. (C) While the MPs admitted that Meciar is an "old dog,"
they had faith in his ability to learn "new tricks" in the
upcoming political campaign season. While Strofova -- a 32
year old new mother -- waxed sentimental about Meciar's role
as the "father of our country," the other MPs seemed unmoved
by her passionate display of loyalty. Urbani admitted,
however, that it is Meciar, and not HZDS, that does well at
the polls; without Meciar, Urbani felt the party would suffer
significantly. Clearly, there is no HZDS without its
unchallenged boss.

MECIAR WANTS POWER, BUT NOT RESPONSIBILITY
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4. (C) The MPs outlined their party as built upon three
"pillars:" "We are a Christian party, a nationalist party,
and a party that believes in social capitalism," Urbani said.
With an aggressive and well-defined outline of what reforms
it feels should be continued, and what should be rolled back,
the members clearly spoke from the perspective of their
traditional voter base in rural and eastern Slovakia, where
joblessness remains a problem and wages currently hover at
around 40 percent of the EU-25 average. When asked about
what would constitute "success" for Meciar, the MPs said
"power." When asked to clarify, they admitted that Meciar
wants HZDS to be in the ruling coalition again -- and is
actively pursuing partnership with SDKU, SMK, and KDH to get
there -- but that Meciar himself does not aspire to be Prime
Minister (or any other Minister, for that matter) again.
Urbani told the Ambassador that Meciar has on no fewer than
three occasions assured him that he does not want to be in
power again. Urbani smiled coyly when we asked if Meciar was
angling to be Chairman of the Parliament.

THE BIG QUESTION: WHEN CAN MECIAR MEET THE AMBASSADOR?
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5. (C) Following the lunch, Urbani pulled the Ambassador
aside to ask "when (Urbani) might be able to tell the
Chairman he can meet (the Ambassador)." The Ambassador told
him the time wasn't right.
VALLEE


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