SLOVAKIA: BELARUS IS DETERIORATING, NEEDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000804

SIPDIS


STATE FOR EUR/ACE TOM ADAMS AND LIANE DORSEY
USAID FOR EE/AA THOMAS MEFFORD, EE/ECA, MARILYN SCHMIDT,
AND PPC/SPP GARRET HARRIES

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/03/2015
TAGS: EAID PREL KDEM PGOV LO BO
SUBJECT: SLOVAKIA: BELARUS IS DETERIORATING, NEEDS
COORDINATED APPROACH

REF: STATE 168836

Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On September 30, DCM and Poloff
(notetaker) delivered reftel demarche to Stefan Rozkopal, MFA
Director for CIS and Balkan Peninsula Countries. Rozkopal,
who had met the day before with two opposition politicians
from Minsk, offered Slovakia's support for democratization
efforts in Belarus, and noted that despite Slovakia's limited
finances, "if we see a way ahead, we can figure something
out." Rozkopal told us that he believes that Lukashenko has
the opposition infiltrated and that he thinks an AM radio
station in the local language would be most beneficial, but
recommended that action be taken "quickly" to maximize impact
on the 2006 elections. Post notes Slovakia's continued
emphasis on Belarus as a foreign policy "niche capability,"
and Rozkopal told us that the MFA will send its PolDir to
Minsk in the near future for consultations. The MFA
continues its active engagement and coordination with Slovak
NGOs, a sensitive subject that Rozkopal says he is forced to
frequently deny in conversations with the "brainwashed"
Ambassador of Belarus in Bratislava. Rozkopal went on to
present DCM with a copy of a three page document on
"Contribution of Slovakia to the policy paper on Belarus,"
which he said had just been approved for delivery in
Brussels. Among other things, the policy statement calls for
cooperation and coordination with the USG on democratization
activities in Belarus. END SUMMARY.

BELARUS NEEDS RADIO IN ITS OWN LANGUAGE
--------------


2. (C) During a September 30 courtesy call with MFA
Director for CIS and Balkan Peninsula Affairs Stefan
Rozkopal, DCM again presented reftel points on coordinating
Belarus assistance. Rozkopal, who had received a copy of the
points in advance of the September 23 TACIS meeting, noted
that he had raised the issue of radio broadcasting with two
opposition politicians from Minsk who had been visiting
Bratislava the day before, and that they were very receptive.
They said that while FM radio would be "perfect," it is not
possible to transmit FM radio signals to Minsk from abroad;
AM radio is not as popular in Minsk. However, they believed
that a radio station in Belarussian would be "something
special," as there are several stations already that
broadcast in Russian (including Deutsche Welle). While the
Russian language is widely spoken in Belarus, the MPs
believed that having a radio station in Belarussian would
help it "stand out," as one noted that people would
understand that it was intended "for us."


3. (C) As far as funding was concerned, Rozkopal noted that
Slovakia's funds are "limited," but that if they saw a "way
ahead" with definitive international consensus, Slovakia
would "figure something out." Even though such a Slovak
contribution would likely be symbolic, he felt that a truly
multilateral approach would be more beneficial than having
efforts directed at Minsk funded "50 percent by the U.S. and
50 percent by Poland."

SLOVAKIA WORKS WITH NGO COMMUNITY
--------------


4. (C) Rozkopal said that in the wake of his meetings with
the opposition politicians and in advance of the upcoming
opposition party congress in Belarus, he fears that the
Lukashenko will "use" the congress to his own gain by citing
it as evidence of democracy at work in Belarus. Highlighting
the strong coordination between Slovak NGOs and the MFA on
Belarus issues, Rozkopal said that they work closely with the
Pontis Foundation (a group which Belarus has "blacklisted,"
but which remains active in Belarus and which sponsored the
travel of the two opposition MPs on September 29) and others,
as they have "access to people and areas" that the MFA does
not. Although Lukashenko has never complained directly about
Slovakia's activities, the MFA frequently "pretends" it has
no influence on NGOs when asked by Belarus' Ambassador in
Bratislava. While there is no high-level contact between the
GOS and the GOB, Rozkopal did say that the MFA would be
sending Miro Lajcak, their PolDir, to Minsk in the future for
consultations. Slovakia is also be trying to engage Russia
"as a way to influence the situation in Belarus." Rozkopal
said that Russia could be "tough" with Belarus in a more
effective way than other states.

MINSK'S AMBASSADOR: WE'LL GET TOUGHER
--------------


5. (C) Rozkopal did mention one chilling message from his


recent meeting with Belarus Ambassador to Slovakia. During
their meeting, the Ambassador told Rozkopal that "the closer
we come to elections, the stronger the tools we will use."
Rozkopal said he was concerned with the use of such "tough
and open" language, but noted that it reiterates the need for
quick action on a "broadcasting timetable" that could be used
to bolster democracy in the advance of the elections.
Waiting until next year to begin broadcasting, he fears,
could be "too late."

SLOVAKIA ON BELARUS: THE OFFICIAL STANCE
--------------


6. (SBU) During the courtesy call, Rozkopal gave us a
document entitled "Contribution of Slovakia to the policy
paper on Belarus" that he said had just been finalized for
presentation in Brussels. Rozkopal said that the document
reflects the cleared, official stance of Slovakia towards
Minsk. In sum, it notes that the "political situation in
Belarus with regard to the human rights and democracy (sic)
is deteriorating" as "Lukashenko's regime escalates its
repression against democratic forces in the country."
According to the document, Slovakia expects the pressure on
opposition and NGO groups to continue in advance of the
Presidential election, and urges the EU to establish a
Commission presence in Minsk as soon as possible (again,
before the 2006 elections) to increase the EU's visibility in
Minsk and contribute to more effective coordination of
democratization efforts.


7. (SBU) The document also notes that, "in order to achieve
progress in the democratization of Belarus" Slovakia fully
supports coordination with the United States, and dedicates a
paragraph to the need for the immediate development of
"alternative TV and radio broadcasting as well as print
media" outside the realm of the current state-controlled
media.

VALLEE


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