KDH IS HOT; SDKU IS NOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000738

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/16/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR SOCI LO
SUBJECT: KDH IS HOT; SDKU IS NOT

REF: BRATISLAVA 730

Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Prime Minister Dzurinda is taking
advantage of a long holiday weekend to try to gather the
support of at least three independent MPs needed to open
parliament on September 20 (reftel). Coalition partners KDH
and SMK and ANO "Lintners" hope Dzurinda is successful, but
if not, the prefer to hold elections as soon as possible
(March 18, but only if 90 MPs vote to approve them) rather
than continue the current deadlock. Polling numbers to be
released publicly September 19 will show KDH has received a
significant bump up after successfully removing Pavol Rusko
from his Ministerial position, while SDKU's popularity has
fallen. SDKU is in firm opposition to early elections except
as a "last resort." END SUMMARY.

DZURINDA SEARCHES FOR QUORUM
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2. (C) SDKU MP and close Embassy source Roman Vavrik
(please protect) told us September 16 that Dzurinda continues
to try to get the required votes for a quorum to open
parliament September 20, but that, in his personal opinion,
KDH now wants early elections and wants to get rid of PM
Dzurinda. He said that KDH was supposed to reach out to
former SDKU MP Ivan Simko to help Dzurinda hold the line, who
has so far failed to participate in the reopening of
parliament. Simko demanded a formal statement of support
similar to the one brokered between the coalition and Lubomir
Lintner (who leads 9 MPs formerly of the ANO party),and
wants to be included in the extraordinary sessions of the
Coalition Council (which met today). Vavrik termed Simko a
"dirty blackmailer" but didn't discount the fact that the
Coalition Council, which is meeting late September 16, might
strike a deal with Simko (Note: We will update Department as
warranted). KDH agreed that Simko's price is too high, and
said ultimately it will be Dzurinda's responsibility to have
enough votes to open parliament on September 20.

KDH MEETS WITH THE OPPOSITION TO SHOW ITS STRENGTH
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3. (C) Julius Brocka, Deputy Chairman of KDH and MP, said
that the KDH and SMK call for early elections is in part an
attempt to demonstrate to the independents that the coalition
is not desperate, and that the independents' cooperation was
not worth the political price they thought it was. When the
opposition parties called for early elections, Brocka claims,
KDH decided to show it has "nothing to fear." He claims this
was the reason that KDH leader (and Chairman of Parliament)
Pavol Hrusovsky met with the leaders of Smer, KSS, and HZDS
this week -- to demonstrate that independent MPs will not be
needed if there are early elections, and that they need the
parliament to continue if they want to stay in it. This
strengthens Dzurinda's hand in negotiations with the
independents. Furthermore, KDH wants it to be the coalition
-- not the opposition -- that determines when the elections
will be held, and on whose terms.

HRUSOVSKY PREPARED FOR EARLY ELECTIONS
--------------


4. (C) Hrusovsky spokesman Michal Dyttert told us that the
issue is simple: "we need 76 MPs. We don't have them yet."
Dyttert said Dzurinda hopes to pick up three independents by
that time, but that KDH isn't sure it will happen, as Smer is
actively courting some of the same independents. The party
believes that, if parliament can't open, early elections will
be the only option, and the earlier, the better.
Constitutionally, the earliest possible date for early
elections at this point would be March 18, but the current
headcount shows that only 82 MPs support early polls (90 MPs
are required). According to Dyttert, Smer hopes to find more
votes in HZDS. Meanwhile, Vavrik reports that Vladimir
Meciar's HZDS party has offered to help open the government
in exchange for early elections in June; this would "satisfy"
his voter base.

SMK: WHY PROLONG THE POLITICAL AGONY?
--------------


5. (C) SMK, according to spokeswoman Livia Solymos, is not
yet resigned to the idea of early elections (they are still
waiting for the results of Hrusovsky's outreach to opposition
and independents) but if the independents do not cooperate,
SMK would not oppose March elections. If parliament cannot
get a quorum, she asked rhetorically, "why prolong the
political agony?" She said that the opposition supports June
elections, because the opposition and independents would
therefore continue to draw their salaries through the summer.
She expressed disappointment that SMK cannot get parliament
to open session so it can swear in a new deputy (to replace a
recently deceased SMK MP).

COMMENT: WHO'S HOT (KDH),WHO'S NOT (SDKU, ANO)
-------------- ---


6. (C) Dzurinda's SDKU party continues to treat elections
as an absolute last resort, and according to polling data to
be released September 19, they have good reason to want more
time to campaign. According to the data, if the elections
were held today, Slovaks would vote for the following parties
in the following distribution:

Party Percent Support
-------------- --------------
Smer 35
KDH 12.3
HZDS 11.5
SMK 10.5
SNS 8.8
SDKU 7.4
KSS 4.8
SF 4.4
HZD 2.6
ANO 2.1


7. (C) According to this polling data, KDH, bolstered by
its successful removal of Rusko and ANO from the coalition,
has climbed to second place (for the first time in the last 8
years),while coalition partner SMK has the solid support of
ethnic Hungarians. Smer may have picked up "votes" from some
former ANO supporters. We also note that nationalist party
SNS is now more popular than Dzurinda's own SDKU party in the
polls, and that the Communist party KSS hovers near the "five
percent threshold." Once again, Slovak politics proves
fickle. It is still possible that Dzurinda -- a gifted
politician -- may find the support he needs. Elections as
early as March are the alternative. END COMMENT.

VALLEE


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