SLOVAK PARLIAMENT CAN'T GET QUORUM; OPPOSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000730 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/13/2015 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR SOCI LO SUBJECT: SLOVAK PARLIAMENT CAN'T GET QUORUM; OPPOSITION CLAIMS SMALL VICTORY REF: A. BRATISLAVA 705 ¶B. BRATISLAVA 694 ¶C. BRATISLAVA 682 ¶D. BRATISLAVA 677 ¶E. BRATISLAVA 663 ¶F. BRATISLAVA 626 ¶G. BRATISLAVA 618 Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) The GOS failed to get enough votes to reopen parliament September 12 after its summer break. After failing to achieve quorum both Monday and Tuesday (falling three members short of the 76 required),we are told that Chairman Pavol Hrusovsky will postpone the session until 9:00am Tuesday, September 20. Meanwhile, members of Prime Minister Dzurinda's SDKU party are scrambling to convince independent MPs to show up. This does not mean the government will fall; in fact, it remains well in control. However, it may make it more likely that national elections will take place before they are scheduled (September 2006), though we do not think the Slovaks will be heading to the polls to pick a new government before June. MPs: ALL DRESSED UP BUT NO PLACE TO VOTE -------------- ¶2. (SBU) After Monday's failed roll call, opposition leader Robert Fico touted the lack of quorum -- which his Smer party helped to orchestrate -- as evidence of a "government crisis" caused by the departure of Pavol Rusko's Alliance of New Citizens party (ANO, reftels) from the ruling coalition. He emphasized the need for early elections. Fico claimed that the government does not have sufficient support in parliament to continue legislating its agenda. Late last week the leadership of the Christian Democrat Party (KDH) told the press it had thought about the feasibility of early elections and was not worried. COALITION MEMBER UPSET BY HIS "HYENA" COLLEAGUES -------------- --- ¶3. (C) SDKU Deputy Chairman Roman Vavrik told us that SDKU has been reaching out to the 22 independent MPs upon whom the coalition relies to maintain its majority voting block (and thus power). According to Vavrik, former HZDS MP Gustav Krajci pledged his support to the government Monday morning only to change his mind by the afternoon; another independent MP they were counting on for support is in the hospital. SMK has a replacement for a deceased MP, but parliament needs a quorum in order to swear him in. As of Tuesday morning, Vavrik told us that the coalition still lacked three votes. Vavrik was upset by what he called the "hyena-ism of good Christians" like Zuzana Martinakova of Free Forum and Ivan Simko of Mission 21, both former leaders of SDKU. Simko has been "playing games," demanding a similar sweetheart deal between the coalition and himself as the one recently signed with the former ANO MPs lead by Lubomir Lintner. Former ANO MP (and former Minister of Economy) Nemcsic wants Lintner's group to apologize for their actions while members of ANO, when they removed Nemcsic from the party (and thus his Ministry) to clear the way for Pavol Rusko's accession to the position; only then will he cooperate again with the coalition. ¶4. (C) Vavrik told us that the coalition suspended parliament until Tuesday, September 20, at which time they hope to have rounded up the three remaining votes required to open the session. SMK MP Pal Farkas said by next week the coalition would have enough votes, and that HZDS will help. However, Farkas said that in exchange for HZDS' help, the coalition may have to agree to early elections in June. COMMENT: NO DISSOLUTION LIKELY -------------- ¶5. (C) We fully expect this parliamentary "crisis" will be overcome. The President of the Slovak Republic can dissolve the parliament after three months of inactivity. However, this is unlikely. The MPs (and particularly the independent MPs) will prove more interested in their positions -- and their immunities and handsome monthly stipends -- than in allowing the current deadlock to escalate to that point. No one but Fico is talking about early elections before June 2006, which, we note, would only be three months earlier than scheduled. VALLEE NNNN