COALITION DROPS ANO, PM HOLDS ALL THE CARDS MOVING

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000705 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/02/2015 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL LO SUBJECT: COALITION DROPS ANO, PM HOLDS ALL THE CARDS MOVING INTO ELECTION YEAR REF: A. BRATISLAVA 694 ¶B. BRATISLAVA 682 ¶C. BRATISLAVA 677 ¶D. BRATISLAVA 663 ¶E. BRATISLAVA 626 ¶F. BRATISLAVA 618 Classified By: DCM Lawrence R. Silverman for Reasons 1.4(B) and (D). ¶1. (SBU) The coalition parties announced September 1 that Pavol Rusko's ANO party (weakened by the departure of 7 of ANO's 11 MPs) is no longer a member of the coalition. The coalition will work instead with the group of breakaway ANO MPs and cabinet ministers lead by Lubomir Lintner (Ref A). Prime Minister Dzurinda, who believes that the ruling coalition will be able to maintain stability with the support of Lintner's group, has decided not to honor Rusko's request to recall ANO cabinet Ministers Rudolf Zajac (Health) and Frantisek Toth (Culture). Rusko and his remaining 3 MPs are widely expected to move over to the opposition, and the PM will likely allow Lintner's group to nominate someone to replace Rusko at the Ministry of Economy. The latest rumors again indicate former ANO deputy chairman (and breakaway MP) Jirko Malcharek as a possible successor. MIKLOS TO AMBASSADOR: DZURINDA HOLDS ALL THE CARDS -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) During the Ambassador's August 31 courtesy call with Minister of Finance (and, concurrently, acting Minister of the Economy) Ivan Miklos, Miklos said that the Prime Minister holds all the cards heading into the budget debate. Whereas the PM was previously relying upon ANO's support to pass the 2006 national budget, he now feels his position is win/win: either he is able to pass the budget with the help of Lintner's splinter group, or fails and pins the blame on Rusko. In addition, Miklos pointed out that in the event the budget does not pass, the previous year's budget is simply rolled forward to the next year, meaning that even in the event he cannot pass a budget, the PM would be able to highlight a silver lining: no net budget spending increase. KDH SATISFIED -------------- ¶3. (C) Two advisors to Chair of Parliament Pavol Hrusovsky told us September 2 that KDH was satisfied with the results of the initiative to have Rusko removed. The coalition will now be able to hold on until the end of its term with the support of the ANO defectors and other independents. KDH anticipates that there will be "some costs to pay" in the form of pork barrel projects to get the budget passed, but that the financial costs would not be prohibitively high. Hrusovsky's advisor on domestic policy predicted that opposition politicians including Rusko would try to take advantage of the situation by calling for votes of no-confidence in ministers, and arguing that the coalition politicians only want to hold on to power for as long as possible (therefore refusing to hold early elections). She thought the government could successfully counter these arguments by "perfecting" or correcting some reforms and showing real benefits to the citizens. NOBODY PUTS RUSKO IN THE CORNER -------------- ¶4. (C) COMMENT: In spite of the rough and tumble events that have seen Rusko go from his powerful Ministerial position to likely opposition member over the course of two weeks, Rusko was spotted Wednesday night -- the day before the remainder of his party was booted from the coalition -- smiling and enjoying himself at his television station's gala "TOM awards," hosted by Patrick Swayze. On the other hand, we noticed at the event that people were not running over to Rusko to demonstrate their solidarity with him. VALLEE NNNN