GROWING OPTIMISM BUT LITTLE POLITICAL INSPIRATION

UNCLAS BRATISLAVA 000365

SIPDIS


SENSITIVE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PHUM ECON LO
SUBJECT: GROWING OPTIMISM BUT LITTLE POLITICAL INSPIRATION
AMONG SLOVAK VOTERS



1. (U) Summary. The Institute for Public Affairs' (IVO) 2004
annual Summary Report on Slovakia shows growing public
optimism about the direction Slovakia is taking, increased
apathy toward high-level corruption, and increasing
acceptance of economic reforms. Slovak parties are becoming
more similar, and with parliamentary elections a bit more
than a year away, they are searching for ways to distinguish
themselves. End summary.

Weakening Pessimism Bodes Well For Reformers
--------------


2. (SBU) According to the report's author, Olga Gyarfasova,
Slovak pessimism is a long-held and well-documented cultural
trait. Nonetheless, in 2004, 46 percent of Slovaks surveyed
said the state is going in the right direction, while 48
percent said it was heading in the wrong direction. This
was a tremendous improvement over 2003, when 29 percent said
Slovakia was heading in the right direction, and 66 percent
said Slovakia was heading in the wrong direction. Optimism
is strongest among the young, more educated, city dwellers,
and businesspeople. Sixty percent of respondents in 2003
said they could not think of a single positive step by the
governing coalition; this dropped to 40 percent in 2004.


3. (SBU) Gyarfasova credited the government program of
economic reforms in part for the rise in optimism. EU
accession, the influx of large and visible investments
outside of the Bratislava region, lower unemployment, higher
real wages, and having "survived" the early economic reforms
have contributed to lower pessimism. Nonetheless, large
regional disparities remain and residents of eastern
Slovakia perceive that they are being cheated. In the two
eastern regions, 91 and 92 percent of respondents said their
chances for material improvement are worse than in other
regions. The 2005 Government study on the socio-economic
disparity of the regions showed that unemployment in the
Bratislava region is 8 percent, Kosice 24 percent, and
Presov 22 percent. Average monthly salaries vary widely by
region as well: 20,168 SKK in the Bratislava region, 14,630
SKK in Kosice, and 11,829 in Presov. (Exchange rate is
currently 30.2 SKK to 1 USD.)

What Does it Mean for 2006 Parliamentary Elections?
-------------- --------------


4. (U) In 2002, voters went to the polls in support of, or
in opposition to, Slovakia's "rejoining Europe" by
continuing vigorous post-communism reforms and entering NATO
and the European Union. The public is likely to be more
apathetic before the 2006 elections; the stakes are viewed
as lower and party differences less stark than in 2002.
Gyarfasova predicts lower voter turnout, and other analysts
agree. SMK politicians have told us Hungarian voters are
dissatisfied at the slow economic benefits of reforms; they
won't vote for other parties, but may not vote at all. The
main challenge for all parties will be to get their
supporters to the polls.


5. (SBU) The IVO polling data showed Slovak voters are
becoming more apathetic about high-level corruption. Media
reports create a culture of permanent scandal, Gyarfasova
said. Citizens consider political corruption as normal and
do not punish corrupt politicians at the polls. This
tendency benefits the incumbent parties (which does not
imply that they are any more or less corrupt than opposition
parties).


6. (SBU) The three largest parties in parliament--SDKU,
Smer, and HZDS--are currently developing platforms for the
2006 elections, each trying to distinguish itself. With EU
directives driving a good part of the domestic agenda, there
is little room for a complete overhaul. Even with the
strong social rhetoric of Robert Fico, it would be difficult
for a Smer-led government to dramatically reverse the
reforms or change Slovakia's participation in Euro-Atlantic
institutions. Gyarfasova speculated that the most anti-
reform government possible after 2006 would be a Smer-HZDS
coalition. However, she warned this is highly hypothetical.
Important personalities in HZDS prefer aligning with a
center-right government, which is consistent with their
warming to SDKU. A center-right government that includes
HZDS would necessarily have a more liberal direction, but
Gyarfasova could not imagine any Slovak government that
would roll back the major reforms.


7. (U) SDKU has raised the possibility of making the EU
Lisbon Agenda central to their 2006 party platform. They
are considering advancing a "knowledge economy" agenda,
warning against Slovakia supplying only relatively cheap
European industrial labor. The smaller parliamentary
political parties have clear ideological priorities and are

unlikely to revise them before 2006. The Christian
Democratic Movement (KDH) party triumphs social
conservatism, the Hungarian Coalition Party (SMK) promotes
the interests of this ethnic minority, the Communists (KSS)
are a fading remnant of the past, and the Slovak Nationalist
Party (SNS) promotes isolationism and opposes political
influence by minorities. The liberal social agenda of the
party Alliance for a New Citizen (ANO) is likely to
disappear, as polling numbers remain below the five percent
threshold to enter parliament.

Comment
--------------

8. (SBU) At present, the political parties are keeping their
options for future coalition partnerships open. They are
brainstorming their platforms, and we expect a contentious
campaign. There may be an element of anti-Americanism,
particularly Smer's criticism of the Dzurinda government's
support for the Iraq war. Polls are not good predictors of
election outcomes in Slovakia, and we are still far away
from election day. It remains to be seen whether the level
of optimism will increase enough in the coming year to give
the current government a third term.

THAYER


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