SMER-SDL MERGER CONSOLIDATES LEFT, BUT DOES IT

C O N F I D E N T I A L BRATISLAVA 000314

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR LO
SUBJECT: SMER-SDL MERGER CONSOLIDATES LEFT, BUT DOES IT
MATTER?


Classified By: CDA Scott N. Thayer for reasons 1.34 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. In late 2004, the Party of the Democratic
Left (SDL) and two other small, leftist parties merged with
Smer ("Direction"). Smer leader Robert Fico has successfully
consolidated the center-left, but a slight increase in votes
in 2006 will not necessarily correspond to an increase in
coalition potential. Pollsters continue to interpret support
for Smer as "soft." End Summary.

Let's Make a Deal
--------------


2. (U) On December 11, 2004, precisely five years after
Robert Fico broke from the Party of the Democratic Left to
form Smer, SDL merged with Smer. The SDL ceased to exist as
a legal entity on January 1, 2005, and began to transfer all
its property to Smer. The move followed the November 2004
mergers of the Social Democratic Party of Slovakia (SDSS) and
the Slovak Democratic Alternative (SDA) with Smer, and united
all the remaining parties of the center left.


3. (SBU) Based on the agreement it signed with Smer, SDL
received one vice-chair post, two seats on the Smer Board of
Directors, and vice-chair positions in all district and
regional party organizations. The total number of leadership
positions reserved for SDL members throughout the country was
nearly 300, and was guaranteed for two years. In return,
Smer acquired an active and experienced membership base,
strong district organizations (aproximately 1,400
institutions were affiliated with the SDL),and the right to
use the label "Social Democrat." Most importantly, Smer
eliminated the competition.

A Brief History Lesson
--------------


4. (SBU) In the first Dzurinda government (1998-2002),SDL
was a coalition member and controlled five ministries and one
Deputy Prime Minister post. Fico broke with the party after
disagreements over coalition partners and ministerial posts.
SDL suffered a significant decline in support when several
high-ranking members left to form SDA before the 2002
parliamentary elections due to personality conflicts. Smer
was able to capitalize on the divisions within the left and
its pre-election poll numbers soared. SDL didn't obtain
sufficient votes to enter parliament in 2002 (a party needs
five percent of the vote). Nonetheless, it maintained a
small but loyal membership and a number of elected officials
at the local level.


5. (C) Former SDL Chairman Lubomir Petrak told emboffs in
January that the party still possessed an active membership
and strong regional organizations, but lacked national
personalities that could raise its standing in the polls. He
saw no alternative to the merger. He said Smer secured a
good deal, considering SDL's experience as a former coalition
partner and the number of locally-elected officials
representing SDL. Petrak believed that the disciplined SDL
party members would re-register with Smer, and stated the
reactions were still entirely positive a month after the
merger. He pointed to recent polls showing an increase in
Smer's popularity as proof that SDL's loyal members supported
the merger.

The Other Side of the Coin
--------------


6. (C) The December 11 Smer party congress featured countless
speeches about all the benefits of the merger. However, in
the eyes of some Smer members, SDL may do more harm than good
to the party image. Peter Pelligrini, the head of Smer's
Banska Bystrica district office, told poloff that by
integrating unpopular elected officials and people connected
to the former communist regime, Smer politicians will lose
their image as the fresh faces on the political scene. For
example, Banska Bystrica'S SDL Mayor Jan Kralik will join
Smer, but his economic development program is extremely
unpopular. His reputation among local citizens and NGO's
grows continuously worse. In addition, Pelligrini said the
SDL had not delivered on its claims that most members would
join Smer. A month later, only 40 of 400 SDL members in
Banska Bystrica had re-registered.


7. (C) As a member of the Smer board of directors, Pelligrini
cast a risky dissenting vote against the merger, believing
the agreement was made too quickly and ideological
differences could come to a fray. He fears that fiercely
loyal SDL members may use Smer to get elected, and then in
the future may break from Smer and steal parliamentary seats.


8. (C) According to Pelligrini, the only advantage of the
merger was to be a stepping-stone to membership in Socialist
International and in the EU parliament Social Democrat club.


Pelligrini said it was important for Smer to adopt the label
"Social Democrat" and erase the confusing campaign slogan
"the third way." Eugen Skultety, the Vice President for
Labor Policy at the Confederation of Trade Unions (KOZ),told
emboff that cooperation with Smer could become easier and
more acceptable under the guise of the Social Democratic
label. He stated unionists in Europe are inclined to work
with Social Democrats on some issues, even while maintaining
loyalties to other parties.

Next Steps
--------------


9. (C) The December 2005 Smer congress will begin to discuss
the 2006 parliamentary elections and candidate lists. Both
Pelligrinni and Petrak said they don't expect ideological
disputes in the timeframe leading up to elections, though
internal problems could result from candidate selection and
personality conflicts. Petrak said completing this merger
nearly two years in advance of elections would give SDL
members time to shift their loyalty to Smer and contribute to
its growth. Pelligrini viewed future negotiations of
candidate lists as a Pandora's box, since SDL members are
more experienced at political maneuvering than young Smer
upstarts.


10. (C) Michal Vasecka, a sociologist from the Institute for
Public Affairs (IVO),told emboff that SDL members may become
dissatisfied if they don't get top positions in candidate
lists for the November 2005 regional elections. He said the
regional elections will be the litmus test of Smer's
strength, the merger, and the party's penetration in the
regions. If Smer has good results, analysts will have to
start viewing their popularity ratings as real numbers rather
than inflated. (Note: In the 2002 parliamentary elections,
Smer led the polls at nearly 20 percent, but only got 13
percent of the vote.)


11. (SBU) A small group within Vladimir Meciar's Movement for
a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) favors closer cooperation with
Smer. They have publicly and privately expressed dismay that
Meciar is taking the party closer to Dzurinda's SDKU and away
from its voters. HZDS MP Dusan Jarabik left the party in
mid-April for this reason, and it is rumored he may join
Smer.

Comment: Has Anything Really Changed?
--------------


12. (C) Smer has consolidated the center-left, and may gain a
few percentage points in the 2006 elections as a result, but
it has not acquired more coalition potential. Fico behaves
in a confrontational manner toward all other major party
leaders. He has proven he can make deals with nearly-extinct
parties, but he can't get along with the bigger ones.


13. (C) Fico continues to employ the populist rhetoric that
keeps him near the 30-percent mark in polls. He recently
promised that, if elected, he would eliminate fees for health
care, increase the minimum wage, and cut the VAT on fuel,
medicine, and food. However, most Slovaks remain skeptical.
Economic reforms are well-entrenched, and even a Fico-led
government would find it hard to dramatically reverse course.
Even if a new "Social Democrat" label brings clarity to the
party program, Smer is still not offering a simple, concise
alternative to the current government. Smer's support is
traditionally very "soft" because its (mostly young)
supporters tend not to vote, even when they indicate in polls
that they will. Most pollsters to whom we have spoken
interpret Smer's strong showing as an expression of
dissatisfaction with the current government, rather than a
real vote for Fico. Like Vasecka, we remain doubtful of
Smer's true strength.
THAYER


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