BRAZIL SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF 3+1 DELEGATION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BRASILIA 003141 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2015 TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV ECON BR US SUBJECT: BRAZIL SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF 3+1 DELEGATION Classified By: PolCouns Dennis Hearne, Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) The Plenary Meeting of the 3 1 will provide an important benchmark for Brazil's willingness to increase cooperation with the United States on Counterterrorism, something the GOB has been reluctant to do. We do not expect a significant change in the GOB's position, which places great importance on not inflaming public opinion, especially among its large and influential Arab population, or damaging its relations with the nations of the Middle East, including those most responsible for terrorist actions worldwide. The GOB places rather less importance on implementing policies that will significantly reduce the amount of terrorist financing and other support that comes from the Tri-Border area, although it has implemented programs to comply with the requirements of UNSCR 1267. Indeed, the Brazilian's top political priority appears to remain preventing any public statements that might imply that any such activities take place there. The following paragraphs provide a backdrop against which to view our Counterterrism efforts with Brazil. -------------- The Bilateral Relationship -------------- ¶2. (C) While relations between the U.S. and Brazil are friendly, often the USG encounters major difficulties in gaining the cooperation of senior policymakers on issues of significant interest to the United States. Eager to assert its own influence, the Brazilian government shies away from cooperation with the USG - unless it can clearly be characterized as a reciprocal exchange among equals. Indeed, hyper-sensitivity on issues viewed as infringing on Brazil's sovereignty can get out of hand and may be seen as signs of political immaturity. Many Brazilians believe the U.S. has designs on the Amazon. Our fingerprinting of visitors to the U.S. drew reciprocal treatment for Americans here; visa and immigration issues remain sensitive points. ¶3. (C) During recent months, our ongoing dialogue with the Brazilians has focused on a variety of potentially useful projects for both sides. We sought to interest the GOB in a Defense Cooperation Accord, but the Foreign Ministry rejected the proposal even though the Defense Ministry was supportive. Gaining agreement on privileges and immunities to be granted U.S. servicemen engaging in military exercises has been just �00A;as tough sledding. While we seek to get the GOB to move forward with an agreement governing space launches at the country's equatorial base at Alcantara, our pleas are met with silence even as Brazil has executed space-related agreements with Ukraine and others. On trade issues, when unscripted, President Lula has characterized the FTAA as "off his agenda." IPR is another sore point, as it has become clear that the USG and the Brazilian government have differing views on the protection to be afforded to intellectual property. ¶4. (C) However, not all our conversations are difficult. On issues involving matters perceived as technical in nature - i.e., law enforcement and science (but not the environment or counter-terrorism) - the GOB is eager to engage. For example, from 2003 to 2004, the GOB worked quietly with us on the timing and details of its shoot-down program to accommodate our statutory requirements (although now a new crop of GOB bureaucrats appears to be unaware of the government's past promises). Foreign Minister Amorim's statements to the press in the wake of his September 26 meeting with Secretary Rice, i.e., to the effect that Brazil would seek intensified bilateral dialogue on scientific, education, and environmental issues, reflect this desire to cooperate only on matters of marginal interest to the U.S. -------------- Foreign Policy -------------- ¶5. (C) In large part due to Brazil's ambivalence towards the United States, President Lula has run an activist foreign policy with a focus on South America and the Third World, seeking to forge alliances with other mid-sized powers (South Africa, India, etc). He has traveled extensively in pursuit of a higher international profile for Brazil. Despite prodding from the USG and others, Lula has refused to condemn Cuba for human rights violations and, in fact, has pushed for Cuban membership in the Rio Group. Brazil has also advocated a Cuba-Mercosul trade pact. ¶6. (C) In addition, the GOB has worked to increase both its economic and political ties with Venezuela. Enhanced integration of the two countries' energy sectors is high on its agenda. Lula has been especially solicitous of Chavez. During the September 29-30 South American Community of Nations Summit in Brasilia, Lula praised the Venezuelan President's democratic credentials ("if anything, Venezuela has an excess of democracy") and declared that the Chavez government had been demonized by its foes. ¶7. (C) In the face of declining inter-bloc trade, Brazil has sought to revitalize Mercosul. It has pursued Mercosul-USG trade talks, an effort seen by many as a way to delay/derail the FTAA process. Indeed, given its size and natural resources, Brazil has long seen itself as the natural leader of the region (even though that perception is not shared by many of its neighbors). ¶8. (C) Emblematic of Brazil's efforts to gain greater standing on the world stage is its tenacious pursuit of a permanent UN Security council (UNSC) seat. Brazil and other G4 states (India, Germany, Japan) are, despite recent setbacks, continuing to press their campaign for a vote on a resolution on UNSC reform. This stance is at odds with the position of many Latin American countries, including those which Brazil believes should follow its "natural leadership." -------------- President Lula -------------- ¶9. (C) President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was inaugurated in January 2003 after a career as a Sao Paulo metalworker and labor leader. He founded the left-of-center Workers' Party (PT) in 1980 and lost three presidential campaigns before winning in the October 2002 elections. Lula is eligible to run for reelection in October 2006. Elected in large part on promises of promoting an ambitious social agenda, including a "Zero Hunger" program, Lula's government has failed to deliver much in this area, as managerial shortcomings and the need for fiscal restraint have limited progress. The public's top concern -- crime and public security -- have not improved under this administration. ¶10. (C) In recent months the Lula Administration has been beset by a grave political crisis as interlocking influencing peddling/vote-buying scandals linked to important elements of Lula's PT party continue to unfold. The crisis has placed Lula on the defensive and caused near paralysis in the congress and the executive branch. Politics have become dominated by investigations, accusations and revelations. The President's Chief of Staff resigned his post, and he and several other congressmen are the subjects of investigations and expulsion proceedings owing to bribery allegations. ¶11. (C) Thus far Brazilian society -- including the opposition -- seems disinclined to hold Lula personally responsible for the scandals or press for impeachment proceedings. However, the breadth of the crisis and the continuing revelations have created a domestic political environment that is fluid and unpredictable. Indeed, some rumors link the President directly to the scandal. Lula's popularity has been badly damaged, with recent polls suggesting he could lose his re-election bid should he pursue it in 2006. -------------- Macro-Economic Developments -------------- ¶13. (C) Due to a cycle of monetary tightening that lasted much of the year, combined with the effects of the ongoing political crisis on investment and consumption decisions, Brazil's economy will be hard pressed to attain growth of 3% in 2005, after posting healthy GDP Growth of 4.9% in 2004. The modest growth in 2005 masks some economic strengths: Brazil has booming exports, healthy external accounts, inflation under control, decreasing unemployment and reductions in the debt-to-GDP ratio. In recent months, the real has risen sharply against the dollar and the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange (BOVESPA) has hit record levels. In March 2005, the Brazilian government declined to renew its Stand-by Agreement with the IMF and in mid-July it announced that it would pay early US$5.12 billion in Standard Reserve Facility payments due by March 2006. ¶14. (C) Overall, while Brazil has made considerable progress, problems remain. Despite registering its first year-on-year decline in 2004, Brazil's (largely domestic) government debt remains high, at 52% of GDP. Real interest rates (at more than 13 percent) are among the highest in the world. Income and land distribution remain skewed. Investment (including FDI) is low. The country's sovereign risk ratings are, in general, three to four levels below investment grade. And the informal sector constitutes between 35 to 40 percent of the economy, in part because the tax burden (nearly 38 percent of GDP) is so high. The good news is that, so far, the uncertainty surrounding the political scandal has neither retarded economic growth or frightened away foreign investors. ¶15. (C) Sustaining high growth rates in the longer term depends on the impact of President Lula's structural reform program and efforts to build a more welcoming climate for investment, both domestic and foreign. In its first year, the Lula administration passed key tax and pension reforms to improve the government fiscal accounts. Judicial reform and an overhaul of the bankruptcy law, which should improve the functioning of credit markets, were passed in late 2004, along with tax measures to create incentives for long-term savings and investments. -------------- Trade Policy -------------- ¶16. (C) To increase its international profile (both economically and politically),the Foreign Ministry (Itamaraty) is seeking expanded trade ties with developing countries, as well as a strengthening the Mercosul customs union with Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina. In 2004, Mercosul concluded free trade agreements with Colombia, Ecuador, Venezuela and Peru, adding to its existing agreements with Chile and Bolivia to establish a commercial base for the newly-launched South American Community of Nations. -------------- Free Trade Area of the Americas- FTAA -------------- ¶17. (C) As indicated above, the Lula Administration shows no serious interest in pursuing the FTAA. Despite serving as co-chair and having secured in the November 2003 Miami meeting a new framework for negotiation, Brazil has shown no inclination to move the process along and has failed to convoke the next FTAA Ministerial - which is now overdue. LINEHAN