DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PRO-URIBE POLITICAL PARTIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 008695 SIPDIS SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2015 TAGS: PGOV PINR CO SUBJECT: DEVELOPMENTS IN THE PRO-URIBE POLITICAL PARTIES REF: A. BOGOTA 4467 ¶B. 04 BOGOTA 11705 Classified By: Charge Milton K. Drucker, Reasons: 1.4 B & D. ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Four center-right political parties -- Radical Change, National Unity, Democratic Colombia, and the Conservatives -- are vying to be the lead vehicle for President Uribe's reelection drive. While all are viable electorally, the continued existence of National Unity and Democratic Colombia depends in large part on the Constitutional Court's allowing reelection legislation to stand. President Uribe has said several times that paramilitaries convicted of serious crimes are legally prohibited from serving in Congress, a position supported by Prosecutor General Mario Iguaran and other legal experts (but not an unanimous opinion). Paramilitary political supporters continue to vie for invitations to run for Congress, however, including under the banner of pro-Uribe parties. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) In late August, former Finance Minister (under Andres Pastrana) and current Presidential advisor Juan Manuel Santos and Uribista Senator Oscar Ivan Zuluaga announced the formation of the newest pro-Uribe political party, called National Unity (Unidad Nacional). Some 45 leading members of Congress, many of whom broke with the Officialist Liberal Party (PLC) to vote for legislation to permit Presidential reelection (Ref B),formally joined the movement. In essence, a handful of micro parties on the center-right aligned to form National Unity. At the National Unity announcement ceremony (which President Uribe did not attend), leaders highlighted the electoral strength of the affiliated members of Congress. In addition, National Unity promised to attain double the number of votes of another nascent pro-Uribe party, Radical Change (Cambio Radical),led by Senator German Vargas Lleras, in Congressional elections to be held on March 12. During the second week of September, Democratic Colombia (Colombia Democratica),led by Senator Mario Uribe, President Uribe's first cousin and long-time political counterpart and ally, announced a potential fusion with "Wings" (Alas),a small center-right movement headed by fellow Senator Leonor Serrano. The long-standing Conservative Party (Partido Conservador Colombiano, PCC),an erstwhile Uribe ally currently under the direction of Senator Carlos Holguin, continues to operate under the presumption that reelection will stand, and that the party's faithful will vote, in a (date yet to be determined) national referendum, to support Uribe as its official candidate in ¶2006. The Conservatives have been on record asking that Uribe replace VP Francisco Santos with a Conservative VP running mate. ¶3. (SBU) Vocal pro-paramilitary political actors, like Representatives Rocio Arias and Eleonora Pineda, continue to vie for invitations to run for Congress. While Santos stated that paramilitaries were not welcome in his party, and blackballed both Arias and Pineda, immediate past House Speaker Zulema Jattin, a member of National Unity, publicly invited a prominent demobilized paramilitary member to run for Congress under the UN label. (Note: The paramilitary in question, Jairo Andres Angarita, was the number two of the AUC's Sinu-San Jorge Bloc, formerly led by Salvatorre Mancuso. He demobilized in early 2005 and was processed under Law 782, for having committed only minor, pardonable crimes. End Note.) In an interview in leading daily El Tiempo on September 10, Senator Uribe, head of Democratic Colombia, welcomed members of Congress sympathetic to paramilitary interests into his party. Senator Uribe was quoted as saying "after December 31, we will no longer have paras (paramilitaries),we will have demobilized who may be candidates and eventually be elected." ¶4. (C) President Uribe has said on a number of occasions that paramilitary leaders guilty of serious crimes will not be legally permitted to serve in Congress. Prosecutor General Iguaran and former vice minister of Justice Rafael Nieto endorsed this legal analysis in recent speeches and meetings, though others, such as former Supreme Judicial Council (Consejo Superior de la Judicatura; the judicial branch's administrative and disciplinary arm) head Gilberto Orozco, have demurred. ¶5. (C) Comment: The continued existence of National Unity and Democratic Colombia is largely contingent on the Constitutional Court allowing reelection to stand. A Court decision adverse to President Uribe would send most of the two parties' members scurrying back to the Officialist Liberal Party, the original political base of the majority. Vargas Lleras, by most accounts, is hedging his bets, supporting President Uribe publicly yet working his substantial media connections to garner regular, positive, and prominent personal coverage, in the event reelection dies and he enters the 2006 Presidential contest. Electoral laws permit alliances of parties for the Presidential election. However, one party would appear as the lead vehicle for Uribe on the ballot. As such, much of the current jockeying is a battle of political egos. In addition, new and complex rules will take effect in upcoming Congressional elections (Ref A), and Congressional aspirants are brooding over their safest electoral options. DRUCKER