OBSERVATIONS ON UPCOMING COURT DECISION ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 008241

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/31/2015
TAGS: PGOV KJUS PINR CO
SUBJECT: OBSERVATIONS ON UPCOMING COURT DECISION ON
REELECTION

Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood
Reasons: 1.4 (b,d)


1. (SBU) Summary: Commentators continue to differ in their
predictions about the Colombian Constitutional Court's
decision on President Uribe's reelection. A leading
newspaper recently published an extensive article predicting
a 6-3 vote in favor of Uribe's reelection, while others
suggest different outcomes, none of which would permit Uribe
to run for a consecutive second term. We understand that the
Court could rule in late October.
End Summary.

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Four Scenarios
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2. (U) Post's contacts agree on the four possible directions
the Constitutional Court decision could take, but disagree on
which is the more likely outcome. The four scenarios are:

--Allow reelection;
--Allow non-consecutive reelection (as was the case prior
to the 1991 Constitution);
--Allow reelection, but only beginning with future
Presidents; or
--No reelection.

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Leading Weekly Predicts 6-3 Vote
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3. (U) On August 21, prominent weekly newspaper El
Espectador published an extensive article stating that, if
the vote were held now, the Court would rule 6-3 in favor of
President Uribe's reelection. The article claimed to be
based on knowledge of the legal opinion drafts of eight of
the nine Constitutional Court magistrates. (Note: the
article caused the magistrates to issue a rare press release
criticizing the newspaper for purportedly politicizing the
Court's consideration of the reelection matter. End Note.)

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Inspector General Says Law Unconstitutional
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4. (U) The article reached the opposite conclusion to that
of Inspector General (Procurador) Eduardo Maya, who wrote in
July that the reelection law was "null" because of procedural
irregularities associated with its passage in Congress. Maya
is regarded as a legal heavyweight whose opinion could be
persuasive for some magistrates. We understand that the
Court has sided with the IG's recommendation in roughly 90
percent of the cases it has heard since its inception in 1991.

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Hybrid Scenarios
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5. (C) In addition to potential up/down rulings, two
additional scenarios are possible. First, that the Court
might rule in favor of reelection, but not consecutive, as
was the case in Colombia from the late 1800s until the 1991
Constitution. Second, Bogota Law Association President
Alfonso Clavijo has told us that the Court is considering
striking a clause (the "transition paragraph") that states
that the current President or any former President may be
elected to an additional term. The clause in question was
added in the sixth round of voting (Senate plenary).
Colombian law states that any significant modifications of
legislation by either plenary must first be re-reviewed and
re-voted by the relative committee. In this case, re-review
did not occur. According to Clavijo, were the clause to be
annulled, the law would enter into force only with future
Presidents and Uribe could not benefit from it.

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Factors That Could Influence Magistrates
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6. (C) The Court could be influenced by Uribe's high
approval ratings. Uribe continues to maintain 70 percent
approval, and a recent poll showed roughly 65 percent
favoring his reelection. The majority of our political
contacts argue reelection will stand and Uribe will be able
to run in 2006. The argument they use is along the lines of
"no magistrate wants to be on the wrong side of public
opinion." Pro-Uribe actors are arguing that Congressional
debate was lengthy and detailed by any standard.


7. (C) Uribe's early August appointment of former President
Andres Pastrana -- a declared opponent of reelection -- as
Ambassador to the U.S. might carry weight with some
magistrates. Senior Conservative Party members, including
Senators Luis Humberto Gomez Gallo, Carlos Holguin, and Jesus
Carrizosa, have told us that two Court magistrates are
Pastrana loyalists. While these contacts have not indicated
first hand knowledge of a quid pro quo on supporting
reelection, they are confident that Uribe asked Pastrana to
lobby the Court in favor of reelection.


8. (C) On the other hand, we estimate that few if any of the
magistrates (who serve staggered eight year terms) have
high-level political ambitions. As such, they are not
necessarily concerned with a negative public reaction to a
potential ruling against reelection. Colombia's high courts
(Constitutional, Supreme, and Council of State) are
perceived to be biased towards the Officialist Liberal Party,
an organization that strongly resists reelection (for obvious
political reasons, including the prospect of facing Uribe in
2006). In particular, Liberal Party head and former
President Cesar Gaviria -- a leading opponent of reelection
-- appears to have several loyalists on the Court, including
Court President Manuel Jose Cepeda. The intent of the
framers of the 1991 Constitution was strongly
anti-reelection, and many members of the legal community
continue to argue in favor of the spirit of the 1991
Constituent Assembly.

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Late October Ruling Possible
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9. (C) President Cepeda told us recently that the Court
would try to issue its ruling prior to its mid-November
deadline because magistrates understood the importance of the
matter for Colombia. Cepeda's explanation of the procedural
requirements and deadlines that must be met prior to issuing
an opinion suggest that the Court could rule in late October.
WOOD