ICRC ON PROSPECTS FOR TALKS ON HUMANITARIAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 007922

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2015
TAGS: PHUM PGOV PTER SNAR KJUS CO
SUBJECT: ICRC ON PROSPECTS FOR TALKS ON HUMANITARIAN
EXCHANGE

REF: A. BOGOTA 7712 (NOTAL)

B. BOGOTA 7590 (NOTAL)

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires, a.i. Anne T. Callaghan
Reasons: 1.4 (b,d)

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) ICRC Head of Delegation Juan Pedro Schaerer (protect)
said August 18 that he was not optimistic about the prospects
for a GOC agreement with the FARC on an humanitarian
exchange. He said the ICRC is prepared to accompany FARC
members to a meeting place with the GOC and remain with them
for up to three days following the meeting to ensure GOC
security guarantees are kept. In Schaerer's view, the FARC
is interested in an humanitarian exchange because it wants to
boost its international credibility as a "political"
organization. Schaerer said Spain, unlike France, could play
a constructive role in the GOC's efforts to secure hostages'
release and with the EU on paramilitary demobilization. In
Schaerer's view, there are too many players engaged in trying
to secure an agreement on humanitarian exchange talks and
their efforts are not coordinated. End summary.

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ICRC OFFERS TO ACCOMPANY, REMAIN WITH FARC
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2. (C) Schaerer told D/PolCouns and Refugee Coordinator
August 18 that the FARC would call him to discuss logistics
if and when they were to reach agreement with the GOC on a
meeting place for humanitarian exchange talks. The ICRC had
previously offered to accompany FARC members to the meeting
place. The ICRC would be prepared to remain with FARC
members for up to three days following the end of a meeting
to ensure that the GOC's security guarantees were effective.

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FARC WANTS POLITICAL RECOGNITION, SECURITY GUARANTEES
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3. (C) Schaerer said the FARC is interested in a
humanitarian exchange primarily to bolster its credibility as
a political organization that exchanges "soldiers for
soldiers" with the government. Schaerer said FARC leader
Marulanda has wanted such international recognition for
years.


4. (C) In Schaerer's view, the municipalities of either
Florida or Pradera in the Valle del Cauca are viable meeting
places for the FARC because they are close to traditional
FARC spheres of influence. The issue of "demilitarizing"
such areas is something of a red herring, he said, because
the municipalities contain few GOC military personnel.
Schaerer suggested that an agreed meeting place would require
a "security perimeter" which the GOC and FARC would commit to
keep free of military forces.


5. (C) Schaerer said the FARC would insist on security
guarantees for its members who attend any meeting with the
GOC. The FARC's concern is less about its members' arrival
at an agreed meeting place than with their departure.
According to Schaerer, the FARC fears that the military could
attack at the conclusion of a meeting.

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COMPARING ROLES OF FRANCE AND SPAIN
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6. (C) Schaerer stated that France is "overly emotional" on
the hostage issue and is not playing a constructive role in
discussions associated with a humanitarian exchange. For
example, the ICRC asked the FARC to release all hostages who
are suffering from physical or mental ailments, and then
France complicated matters by immediately adding, "and all
the women". In Schaerer's view, France has some credibility
with the FARC but none with the GOC. Spain, on the other
hand, has credibility with the GOC and appears to be playing
a more useful role. Schaerer said Uribe's recent meeting
with Zapatero raised the possibility of an informal deal, in
which the GOC's progress on humanitarian exchange would be
met by Spain's efforts to persuade the EU to back
implementation of the Justice and Peace law.

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HOW COURT RULING COULD AFFECT HUMANITARIAN EXCHANGE
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7. (C) In Schaerer's view, the FARC would remain interested
in an humanitarian exchange even if the Constitutional Court
rules in favor of Uribe's right to seek immediate reelection.
Schaerer discounted the view that the FARC is likely to
attack to undermine Uribe's image as a president who has
delivered both security and government services. Such a FARC
offensive would, he said, be counterproductive because it
would almost certainly strengthen, not diminish, Uribe's
popularity.


8. (C) If the Court rules against Uribe's right to seek
immediate reelection, Schaerer said the FARC would probably
wait until a new president was inaugurated in August 2006 to
restart "talks about talks." He reasoned that the FARC would
not want to give Uribe a "parting gift" of hostages released.
Schaerer thought it possible, albeit unlikely, that the FARC
would "thank" the Court for such a ruling by releasing some
hostages.

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MEETING COULD BE BEST CASE SCENARIO IN SHORT TERM
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9. (C) Schaerer is not optimistic about the prospects for an
humanitarian exchange at this point. He said there are too
many actors involved in the "talks about talks," and too many
public statements. (Note: as reported ref B, Father Dario
Echeverri, Secretary General of the National Conciliation
Commission, is in Europe this week to meet with Spanish,
Swiss, and French authorities and try to coordinate better
the various peace efforts. End note.) The "best case
scenario" in the short term, according to Schaerer, would be
an agreement for the GOC and FARC to meet. He expects the
FARC to insist on the return of some of its heavyweight
operatives (he mentioned Rodrigo Granda) and the GOC to
resist.
CALLAGHAN