SO FAR SO GOOD: BOGOTA MAYOR GARZON'S FIRST YEAR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 001696

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV ECON CO
SUBJECT: SO FAR SO GOOD: BOGOTA MAYOR GARZON'S FIRST YEAR
IN OFFICE


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Summary
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1. (U) Bogota's left-of-center mayor, Luis Eduardo ("Lucho")
Garzon, has avoided controversy and generally refrained from
speaking out on national issues, particularly public
security. Garzon has drawn relatively little criticism for
his administration's management of the city, although his
governing coalition in the City Council has shown signs of
strain. He has maintained Bogota's credit rating, initiated
promised social investment, and maintained existing programs
(such as "Transmilenio" metro bus system construction). The
democratic left is starting to use him as proof that the left
can provide responsible government, but Garzon has deferred
any presidential hopes to 2010. End Summary.

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Fiscal Responsibility
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2. (U) Despite fears that Garzon would empty the city's
coffers with social spending, Bogota maintains its AAA credit
rating. Revenues are up 10 percent since he took office in
January 2004.

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Political Inclusivity
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3. (U) Garzon named his cabinet from across the political
spectrum. He has worked with the private sector to develop
his social programs. Unlike his predecessors, Garzon has
maintained good relations with the pluralistic City Council,
which passed his development plan and requested a budget/debt
ceiling (1.7 billion pesos, or roughly USD 7,650,000) for
social investment with near unanimity. However, his
governing coalition in the Council, which includes members of
Garzon's Democratic Pole (PDI, or "Polo") as well as
Officialist Liberals and Conservatives, has shown recent
signs of strain, including a birthday present to the mayor of
a live rabbit (symbolizing unfulfilled promises) by an
"Uribista" (allied with President Uribe) councilman.


4. (SBU) Press has reported that Garzon has distanced himself
from the PDI and has not delivered expected levels of
patronage. Fifteen councilmembers submitted blank ballots in
protest when the Council elected Conservative Hipolito Moreno
to be its president, despite a post-election deal giving the
PDI the presidency in the first year, the Conservatives the
second, the Liberals the third, and independents the fourth.
However, PDI head and Senator Samuel Moreno told poloffs that
Garzon has treated the PDI well and that several leading
members are in key positions in the Bogota Administration.

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Social Programs
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5. (U) "Bogota Without Hunger" is Garzon's signature social
program. It features adult and school nutrition programs in
Bogota's poorest neighborhoods, farmer's markets to provide
low-cost food (the first has opened in Ciudad Bolivar),and
augmented vitamin and vaccination programs. Another
representative program will pay families that send their
children back to school USD 14 per month to offset what the
children might have earned on the street. Construction of 38
new high schools is planned.

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Public Space: An Achilles Heel
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6. (U) Bogota residents complain bitterly about the invasion
of public space by street vendors since Garzon took office.
After initially relaxing the city's hold on public space, the
Mayor has made efforts to limit the influx of under- and
unemployed into the city's streets, but with little success.
Murders and kidnappings are down, but there is a public
perception that an increased presence of street vendors makes
for more street crime.
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Challenges
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7. (U) Construction of the multi-billion dollar
"Transmilenio" metro bus system continues despite the
necessary repair of defective paving contracted by the
Enrique Penalosa administration (late 1990s) with Mexico's
Cemex. Cleaning up the Bogota River will be a daunting
challenge, if Garzon chooses to pursue it.
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Presidential Hopes Deferred to 2010
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8. (SBU) Should the Constitutional Court approve the new
reelection law, Garzon could run for President in 2006,
provided that he resigns from office by May of this year. He
has said publicly, however, that he will not do so. Edgar
Ruiz, Garzon's private secretary, told poloffs that Garzon
will not run, but added that with a 72 percent approval
rating in Bogota, he was just two points behind President
Uribe in the city (end of 2004 polling numbers). Ruiz said
Garzon's goal is the Presidency in 2010, ideally in coalition
with small left and center-left parties and the Officialist
Liberals. A near-term goal is for the PDI to develop a
strong list of House and Senate candidates. Ruiz pointed to
the neck-and-neck polling numbers for Uribe and Garzon in
Bogota as a sign that voters might split their ballots in
2006 -- Uribe for President but center-left candidates for
Congress. Should the Constitutional Court strike down the
reelection law and derail President Uribe's hopes for a
second term, several potential opposition candidates --
including Garzon -- might reconsider their options.
DRUCKER