URIBE'S PARTY CHIEF SAYS PRESIDENT NEEDS SOLID

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BOGOTA 010231 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2015 TAGS: PGOV PTER VE CO ELN SUBJECT: URIBE'S PARTY CHIEF SAYS PRESIDENT NEEDS SOLID MAJORITY IN CONGRESS TO ENACT STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC REFORMS Classified By: Ambassador William B. Wood. Reason: 1.4 (b,d) -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Juan Manuel Santos, President Uribe's hand-picked leader of the new Uribista political party ("Partido de la U"),told Polcouns October 28 it is imperative that Uribe win a solid working majority in March legislative elections. Only with an "ample and faithful" majority could Uribe pursue required pension and tax reforms, he said. Santos was scathing in his criticisms of Senator German Vargas Lleras, whom he characterized as jealous of Santos and "hated" in the Casa de Narino. Santos acknowledged concerns about undue paramilitary influence in electoral campaigns and said he was working on a proposal that all parties should adopt to ensure that paramilitaries cannot take office. Santos predicted that former Bogota mayor Enrique Penalosa would run for mayor again. He predicted that Uribe would win on the first ballot in May's presidential contest, and that a Constitutional Court ruling on the Electoral Guarantees law (expected November 11) should not be an impediment to Uribe's reelection campaign. He said the GOC-ELN peace process could be boosted by the Constitutional Court's reelection decision, and urged the U.S. to "embarrass and weaken" Chavez by exposing his attacks on democracy and corruption in Venezuela. End summary. -------------- "Ample and Faithful" Majority Required -------------- ¶2. (C) Santos said his principal task as leader of the "Partido de la U" is to ensure an "ample and faithful" majority for Uribe in March legislative elections. Uribe needs such a majority to pass required structural economic reforms, especially to address vulnerabilities in the pension and tax systems. Santos explained that Colombia's economic performance in recent years has been positive but the country remains vulnerable to a worldwide economic downturn or even to an increase in interest rates in the U.S. or Europe that could lead to capital leaving Colombia. In such a case Colombia's tax revenues might not cover pension and debt liabilities. Uribe knows he will need to expend political capital on tough reforms, which in turn requires high public opinion ratings and a strong congressional majority. ¶3. (C) Santos said his party already has 24 Senators and should have up to 28 within two weeks (out of 102). The "Partido de la U" is targeting Senators and Senatorial candidates from various sources, including from Senator Vargas Lleras' Cambio Radical party. Santos said former Bogota mayor Enrique Penalosa has given his supporters the green light to cooperate with the "Partido de la U," including to the extent of running for office under the party's colors. Popular Senator Jairo Clopatofsky is expected to join the "Partido de la U" in the next few days. -------------- Santos Tarnishes Vargas Lleras -------------- ¶4. (C) Senator Vargas Lleras is the head of the growing pro-Uribe Cambio radical movement, but is trying to position his group as an independent actor and potential pivot power in the next Congress. Santos said Vargas Lleras is "hated" in the Casa de Narino because he is a "hypocrite" and a manipulator. Vargas Lleras's standing went down further when he criticized Uribe for providing inadequate security measures in the days following the recent car bomb attack. According to Santos, the Senator is "rude" and jealous of Santos's role as principal vote-getter for Uribe. Santos claimed that his relationship with Vargas Lleras was cordial until Uribe named Santos to lead the "Partido de la U"; after that, Santos said, Vargas Lleras turned hostile ("even his girlfriend won't talk to me now"). ¶5. (C) Santos asserted that Vargas Lleras's jealousy towards him motivated the most recent spat, which occurred when Santos called on Vargas Lleras to unite his pro-Uribe forces in Cambio Radical with the "Partido de la U." Such a united effort could, Santos argued, increase the pro-Uribe Senator count by between 4 and 6 Senators because of the way votes are counted. Instead of discussing the matter, Santos said Vargas Lleras accused Santos of being disrespectful and aggressive. (A radio interview with the two men a few days after the latest disagreement was sharply hostile.) Santos agreed that the hostility could make it more difficult for Uribe to work with Vargas Lleras during a second term. -------------- Uribe on First Round; Penalosa for Mayor -------------- ¶6. (C) Santos predicted that Uribe would win the presidency on the first ballot with a vote total in the mid-50 percent range. The opposition's best chance of running a close race would be to unite on the first ballot, but Santos said he thought that unlikely. The Liberals and the Polo Democratico would unite on the second ballot if one took place, but by then it would be too late, he said. In Santos's view, a Constitutional Court ruling on the Electoral Guarantees law (expected November 11) would have minimal impact on Uribe's reelection campaign. Santos also suggested that Penalosa would run for mayor of Bogota. -------------- Paramilitary Concern, Santos Proposal -------------- ¶7. (C) Santos expressed concern with paramilitary influence in the electoral campaigns in certain regions and said he had a proposal to prevent paramilitaries from taking office. Santos will propose that all parties include in their constitutions a commitment to expel from their ranks any candidate elected as a result of paramilitary coercion. In this way, he said, Colombia would be able to break any link between paramilitary pressure and electoral results. -------------- ELN Peace Process -------------- ¶8. (C) Santos said the GOC-ELN peace process could get a boost from the Constitutional Court's reelection decision, as the ELN now knew it had to deal with Uribe for the next 5 years. He noted that the ELN was divided between hardliners who resisted peace talks and those who were more favorably inclined; the latter group could now be strengthened, he suggested. In any event, Santos said, Uribe is committed to pursuing any reasonable peace option with the ELN. -------------- Venezuela -------------- ¶9. (C) In response to a question, Santos said he fears that Chavez is getting stronger and urged the U.S. to "embarrass and weaken" Chavez by focusing on the "destruction of democracy" in Venezuela and on the Chavez regime's corruption scandals. WOOD