TOUR D'HORIZON WITH BASRAH GOVERNOR MOHAMMAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BASRAH 000153 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM PHUM IZ SUBJECT: TOUR D'HORIZON WITH BASRAH GOVERNOR MOHAMMAD REF: BAGHDAD 5030 CLASSIFIED BY: Ken Gross, Regional Coordinator, REO Basrah, Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b),(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a December 20 meeting with REO Basrah's new regional coordinator, Basrah Governor Mohammad Mossibh Al Wahili touted the possibility of a national unity government in Baghdad. After being pressed on the question of the Fadhila party's loyalty to the United Iraqi Alliance (555),Governor Mohammad admitted that it could realign itself with Sunni parties if an adequate power sharing arrangement was not possible within 555. The governor said that he and other governors will meet with the Prime Minister on December 21 to discuss the rise in fuel prices, and he said he would suggest that the Prime Minister address the nation to explain the increase. On security issues, the governor warned that the Basrah Provincial Council wanted to replace the Basrah police chief with a SCIRI/Badr member, a dangerous move he said he would block. Governor Mohammad affirmed the danger posed by militia groups in Basrah and especially singled out Thar' Allah as one of the most violent organizations. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Regional Coordinator (RC) on December 20 paid an introductory call on Basrah Governor Mohammad at his office. While waiting for the governor to arrive, the RC had a brief meeting with Deputy Governor Loway A. Al Batat, an independent politician who is not close to the governor. Batat, still sporting an ink-stained right index finger from voting five days ago, urged close cooperation between the USG and the Basrah Provincial Council and intercession with the British to curtail their "harassment" of council members by subjecting them to unwarranted searches and other security measures. Before the conversation could develop further, the governor arrived and the RC and deputy governor were ushered into his presence. After a few minutes of pleasantries, the governor politely told the deputy governor that he could go, and the conversation turned to more serious subjects. -------------- -------------- -------------- ELECTION - NATIONAL UNITY GOVERNMENT POSSIBLE? -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) When asked about last week's national election, Governor Mohammad said that the election was a success as evidenced by the large voter turnout. He opined that a national unity government, composed of 555, Ayad Allawi's National Iraqi List (731) and the Kurdish parties, was a distinct possibility as the various coalitions negotiate and jockey for position. (See reftel for more on the possibility of an Allawi-led coalition.) The governor said that his own list, 555 (Mohammad's Fadhila party is a member of 555 and the Basrah party leader, Jaber Khalifa Jaber, heads the 555 list here) would play the principal role in such a grand coalition. And the governor reported that the secretary general of Fadhila, Nadim Al Jabri, would be one of the three leading candidates for prime minister in such a government. ¶4. (C) Though the governor was sanguine about the possibility of a national unity government, he did admit that the Fadhila party could bolt from 555. Governor Mohammad said that it was possible that Fadhila might drop out of 555 and align itself with another party or group of parties. The final results of the election - and the allotment of positions of power to Fadhila members - will be the key factors of Fadhila's fidelity to 555, according to Governor Mohammad. He added that in Baghdad some Sunni parties have contacted Fadhila to sound out whether it would be willing to join with them in a coalition. ¶5. (C) In response to a question about the upcoming provincial elections, Governor Mohammad said that he does not expect them to take place until June. He believes that the new government will be formed by the end of January, but possible amendments to the constitution would delay provincial elections, and "besides, the IECI needs a vacation." -------------- -------------- -------------- FUEL PRICE INCREASE - AND THE PUBLIC'S REACTION -------------- -------------- -------------- ¶6. (C) Governor Mohammad said that the government's recent announcement of fuel price increases had shocked the people. Peaceful demonstrations took place December 19 in front of the Basrah governorate. In his opinion, any increase should be gradual to avoid the possibility that "other forces" could take advantage of the protests and turn them in another direction. The governor specifically cited the Badr Organization as one group that was attempting to use the price increase to push people to violence. He alleged that members of this group were burning tires in the streets on December 19 to incite the public to a more dangerous reaction. Governor Mohammad plans to start a media campaign to inform the public and at the same time prepare appropriate security measures. ¶7. (C) The governor said that he would fly to Baghdad later on December 20 for a meeting of all the governors with the Prime Minister on December 21. He said that the Prime Minister invited them to discuss a number of issues, but the fuel price increase is the most important subject they will discuss. Governor Mohammad said that he would urge the Prime Minister to address the Iraqi people on national television to explain the reasons for the price increase and to inform them that it would take effect on January 1. -------------- -------------- BASRAH CHIEF OF POLICE - IN OR OUT? -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) The RC next asked the governor about rumors that reform-minded Basrah Chief of Police Hassan Sawadi would be replaced soon. (NOTE: the governor and the chief of police have been at odds for some time and are known to be bitter enemies. END NOTE.) The governor said that Chief Sawadi is still in his position, though there is a plan in the Provincial Council to replace him. Governor Mohammad said that the council's choice to replace Sawadi is General Ashraf Salah Zatiji, a SCIRI/Badr member who has close ties to and is presently in Iran. ¶9. (C) Governor Mohammad noted that Chief of Police Sawadi has his negatives, but averred that General Zatiji would bring more militia members into the police force and allow them to operate more openly. With the Minister of Interior a SCIRI member, having a SCIRI adherent as Basrah police chief would be "dangerous," the governor warned, and he would block such a move. -------------- MILITIA IN BASRAH -------------- ¶10. (C) The RC asked Governor Mohammad about the prevalence of militia in Basrah and in particular their presence in government entities. The governor replied that the number of militia in Basrah has decreased somewhat, though they still are a major problem. He said that the Badr Organization, with its close ties to Iran, has assassinated many people in Basrah and that he is on its target list. Badr and other groups are present in the security forces and constantly subvert the law by allowing criminals sympathetic to their goals to go unpunished. ¶11. (C) Thar'Allah is a particularly dangerous militia, Governor Mohammad noted. Iranians work closely with Thar' Allah, Governor Mohammad said, and it carries out many assassinations at the behest of Iran. The governor laid blame for many of the recent political murders in Basrah with Thar'Allah and said that his forces are trying hard to capture Thar' Allah's leader, Sayed Yousif; he vowed that they would bring him into custody soon. ¶12. (C) COMMENT: Governor Mohammad was willing to spend considerable time with the new RC answering his questions, but we have no illusions that he spoke the unvarnished truth or provided any startling revelations. His answers were designed to provide information that he thought the U.S. Government would want to hear. Nonetheless, Governor Mohammad is open and ready to have a dialogue with REO personnel, and we will continue to increase our contacts with him. At the end of the 90 minute meeting, Governor Mohammad thanked the RC for coming to his office to meet with him, noting that our security requirements makes this difficult. END COMMENT. GROSS