THAKSIN ALLY PAINTS GLOOMY PICTURE OF PM'S STANDING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 007732 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/15/2015 TAGS: PGOV TH TRT SUBJECT: THAKSIN ALLY PAINTS GLOOMY PICTURE OF PM'S STANDING REF: A. BANGKOK 07529 (LUNCH WITH THAKSIN) ¶B. BANGKOK 07317 (COURT VICTORIES FOR RABBLE-ROUSING JOURNALIST SONDHI) ¶C. BANGKOK 06978 (FORMER PRIME MINISTER ANAND CRITICIZES SURAKIART RUN FOR UN SECRETARY GENERAL POST) Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reasons 1.4 (b) (d) ¶1. (C) Summary and Introduction: I met with Deputy Prime Minister Surakiart Sathirathai on December 16, expecting to hear another campaign speech from the would-be UN Secretary General (ref C). Instead, Surakiart unexpectedly delivered a downbeat analysis of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's standing in the wake of the King's speech (ref A). Surakiart contradicted Thaksin's rosy view of the speech completely, reinforcing the view that the palace remains unhappy with the PM. Surakiart recognized that Thai Rak Thai (TRT) is still strong, particularly in the countryside, but repeated the adage that "Prime Ministers are elected in the countryside but deposed in Bangkok." He said that rabble-rousing journalist/businessman Sondhi Limthongkhul (ref B) is not the man to lead a successful opposition to Thaksin, but he may continue to plague TRT with his (accurate) revelations of government corruption. Although Surakiart is an opportunist who has hitched his wagon to Thaksin's star, he is also a member of the Bangkok elite, tied into the palace through his wife, the daughter of the King's former principal private secretary and current Privy Counsellor. His personal SIPDIS interests give him a keen concern for the PM's fortunes. End Summary and Introduction. ¶2. (C) At the very outset of our meeting, Deputy Prime Minister Surakiart dismissed Thaksin's contention that the King and the PM had discussed the issues in the King's December 4 speech beforehand and reached an understanding. Surakiart explained that, if the King thought that Thaksin would listen to his private advice, then he would have given it privately. The King had 60 years of experience dealing with prime ministers, and he knew how to handle them. The problem was that Thaksin simply doesn't listen, so the King felt compelled to make his points in a public, albeit typically veiled way. Surakiart also refuted Thaksin's claim that the Queen urged the PM to meet the King regularly to "cheer him up," maintaining that the Queen was also no fan of Thaksin. Overall, Surakiart's view tallied with what we've heard from other sources, that the palace, including the King, still has issues with the Prime Minister. Surakiart leaned toward the view that Thaksin had convinced himself that this was not so, and was just refusing to acknowledge the signs to the contrary. ¶3. (C) I pointed out that Thaksin and TRT still have strong support, especially in the countryside. I noted also that the general populace were probably only dimly aware, if at all, of tensions between the beloved monarch and the popular PM, and did not see any need to choose between them. Surakiart acknowledged this, and added that TRT is the first political party to have "two legs" -- support both upcountry and in Bangkok. Nevertheless, Surakiart assessed that the Bangkok elite were now really engaged in opposing Thaksin. He cited the saying, "Prime Ministers are elected in the countryside but deposed in Bangkok," to illustrate the dangers that this development posed for Thaksin. ¶4. (C) Surakiart said that the steady opposition to the PM demonstrated by the crowds who turn out to hear Sondhi each week was significant, but that Sondhi himself was not the man to spearhead a successful campaign against Thaksin. However, the King's speech had implicitly absolved Sondhi of any wrongdoing, and forced the PM to drop the lawsuits against him. Sondhi would have to tone down one of him most saleable themes -- defending the "King's prerogatives" -- but he was doing a good business in exposing and highlighting corruption scandals. According to Surakiart, it was clear that Sondhi had excellent sources for these stories, since "everything he's said is true." Given the high levels of corruption in the government, this could be a deep well to draw from, and there was apparently no shortage of sources to dish dirt on the government. For the next few weeks, Surakiart predicted, political activity would quiet down somewhat as people would be busy with vacations and the new year holiday, but things might pick up around mid-January. (Note: Sondhi announced last Friday that he was taking a break and would be back in mid-January. End note.) Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) Surakiart's insistent, unequivocal contradiction of Thaksin's upbeat claims about his relationship with the palace was striking. Surakiart is not above manipulation, and his comments need to be taken with the proverbial grain of salt. But their basic thrust is consistent with other soundings we're detecting. Surakiart has the contacts to speak with authority about both the palace and TRT. Like many other prognostications of trouble for Thaksin, Surakiart's account was short on details of where Thaksin, with his 375 seat parliamentary majority, could be vulnerable. However, TRT is not a political party unified around a set of principles; it is a loose confederation held together by networks of favor and self-interest. There continue to be rumors that some of the marginalized factions within the party are disgruntled and looking for options, but no real indications to date of serious or significant defections from TRT. Still Surakiart's final question shows that even some of the TRT stalwarts are worried. If Thaksin goes down, he asked, "how will it affect my bid to be UN Secretary General?" BOYCE