OPPOSITION WINS 3 0F 4 THAI BY-ELECTIONS, BUT DOES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 006855 SIPDIS INFO ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI CIA WASHDC E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2015 TAGS: PGOV TH SUBJECT: OPPOSITION WINS 3 0F 4 THAI BY-ELECTIONS, BUT DOES IT MATTER? REF: A. A) BANGKOK 00980 ¶B. B) BANGKOK 06119 ¶C. C) BANGKOK 06798 ¶D. D) CHIANG MAI 00229 Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton For Reason 1.4 (C,D) ¶1. (C) Summary. Opposition parties may have won enough seats in the October 30th parliamentary by-election to initiate impeachment and censure moves against the ruling Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party government. Unofficial tallies have the opposition winning three of the four seats at stake despite intense campaign support from Prime Minister Thaksin for local TRT candidates, leading local press to portray the election results as a dramatic slap in the face for the PM and his party. While this is an important morale boost for the usually hapless opposition, these victories may have hinged more on local politicking than anger with the PM, and may yet be invalidated by fraud charges. Moreover, Thaksin,s majority in parliament remains unassailable and the opposition does not appear to have a clear plan for using the impeachment or fraud motions to regain broader power. End Summary. -------------- DO OVER ELECTIONS FOR FOUR SEATS -------------- ¶2. (U) Thailand held by-elections on Sunday, October 30th for four MP seats in Phichit, Uthai Thani, Singburi, and Satun. The Election Commission of Thailand (ECT) had concluded that questionable election practices occurred during the February 2005 general election in these constituencies, necessitating special by-elections for each (Reftel B). A few days before the by-election, a high-level opposition party member told Polcouns that he was very pessimistic about the upcoming elections (reftel C). Embassy Poloffs used this occasion to visit Uthai Thani and Singburi to meet with candidates, local officials, and NGOs involved, while Poloff from Consulate Chiang Mai did the same in Phichit (reftel D). -------------- WHY SO IMPORTANT? -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Given TRT,s dominant performance in the February election*netting 377 of the 500 seats*the contest for these four slots would hardly seem to be critical to the balance of power in Thailand. However, if the opposition coalition of the Chart Thai, Democrat, and Mahachon parties were able to pick up three of the four seats at play, they could have the 125 votes necessary to initiate censure or impeachment motions against TRT government ministers. ¶4. (SBU) With these stakes in mind, both Thaksin and opposition leaders poured their time, attention and other support into these races. The PM visited Uthai Thani twice in the weeks preceding the contest, including hosting a Friday night rally that drew between ten to twenty thousand people. Opposition leaders tried to mirror these efforts, with noteworthy MPs from around the country streaming into Singburi and Uthai Thani to campaign for their compatriots. These rallies were of noticeably smaller size and sparkle, reflecting opposition concerns that they could not compete against the slick, massively funded TRT campaign machine. Indeed, opposition candidates in both Singburi and Uthai Thani told us that their chances of victory were, at best, even. (Note, TRT did not field a candidate in the Democratic Party stronghold of Satun. End Note.) -------------- INITIAL RESULTS SUGGEST OPPOSITION WIN -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The unofficial results of the by-elections were a surprise to many observers, with the opposition parties capturing 3 of the 4 constituencies by considerable margins, and the TRT winning back their lone seat in Singburi by a mere 750 votes. Clearly the biggest surprise was in Phichit (reftel D),but nearly on par is the result from Uthai Thani, given the tremendous amount of TRT resources poured into that constituency. Below are initial vote counts for each race: Phichit --Siriwat Kachornprasart (Mahachon) 39,412 --Nawin Boonset (Thai Rak Thai) 22,000 Uthai Thani --Thirapan Wirayuthawattana (Chart Thai) 40,259 --Prasaeng Mongolsiri (Thai Rak Thai) 30,259 Singburi --Payap Panket (Thai Rak Thai) 53,669 --Chaiwut Thanakamanusorn (Chart Thai) 52,919 Satun --Horsaree Marem (Democrat) 46,296 (unopposed) -------------- WHAT WAS THE ELECTION ABOUT FOR THE VOTERS? -------------- ¶6. (C) Issue politics remains a mythic creature in Thai politics. Although the local media has cast the election as a public backlash against the TRT juggernaught and a humiliating defeat for PM Thaksin, our meetings in Uthai Thani and Singburi suggest that there were many other factors at work, including tactics, money, and local personalities. Both are overwhelmingly rural communities dependent on local, small-scale farming. Those voters working the land tend to vote for TRT, while those in the small cities and &urban8 areas lean towards the opposition. The public rallies we attended underscored these impressions. At both the opposition and TRT rallies in Uthai Thani, the loudest audience applause was saved for promises of new infrastructure projects and money for the community. Any mention of broader, national issues was met with tepid hand-clapping, at best. ¶7. (C) Personality and tactics matter too. In Uthai Thani, the TRT candidate barely squeaked out a victory in the February election against three divided opposition candidates before the race was voided by the ECT. This time, the opposition pooled their resources behind a single candidate, noticeably improving his chances. Moreover, neutral NGO pollwatchers explained that the TRT candidate Prasaeng was generally disliked for his aloofness and long residency in Bangkok. A Chart Thai official added in a separate conversation that Prasaeng hadn't even tried to meet with the voters in the first few weeks of the campaign. ¶8. (SBU) In Singburi, opposition candidate Chaiwut focused most of his public presentations on the need to hold the current government accountable thru the magic 125 opposition seats. We accompanied Chaiwut, trailed by a handful of helpers and a couple of grim-faced Democrat MPs from other provinces, as he walked through a city neighborhood, quietly explaining his background in finance and making his case face-to-face with voters. ¶9. (SBU) When we caught up with his opponent, Payap, we were treated to a slightly different style. Riding on the back of a custom pick-up truck trailed by several other vehicles and wielding a bullhorn, Payap was trumpeting his long service to the community as a farmer, local official and MP. He proudly told us that his convoy would number nearly 100 vehicles the day before the election. Payap also explained that over 80% of Singburi,s voters were farmers and that their top concerns were water for irrigation and development projects. -------------- BUT THE GAME ISN,T OVER YET -------------- ¶10. (C) Accusations of election irregularities may delay the official results by up to several weeks and could force yet another do-over election. In both Phichit and Uthai Thani, each candidate filed complaints against the other for illegal campaigning activities, which are referred to the ECT in Bangkok. The ECT will take anywhere from a few days to a few weeks to consider the charges, and then decide whether or not to penalize a candidate or uphold the election results. That said, NGO pollwatch officials in Uthai Thani told us that the ECT would only invalidate the election there if the TRT candidate won; if Chart Thai took the seat, the ECT would let the election stand. ¶11. (SBU) No complaints of illegal activities were filed in Singburi, but the opposition parties have asked for an examination of the invalidated ballots. The vote counters invalidated nearly 5,600 ballots (4.9%) in Singburi, which is higher than expected. (Note, in the February election nearly 9% of ballots were voided, in large part to the problems senior citizens had making a correct mark on their ballot. Local officials switched to rubber stamps to avoid this problem this time around. End Note.) Given the narrow gap between the two candidates, it is remotely possible that the opposition may yet capture the fourth seat. ¶12. (C) Finally, the ECT is on the brink of announcing a second round of violations stemming from the February 2005 parliamentary elections, putting the exact number of opposition controlled seats in doubt. Our contacts suggest that the ECT will invalidate elections (i.e. hand out "yellow" or "red" cards, per the soccer terminology used by the ECT) for five more MP,s, three of whom are opposition party members. -------------- SO WAS IT WORTH IT? -------------- ¶13. (C) Opposition candidates made their crusade for 125 seats a central tenet of their campaigns, suggesting that this authority would allow them to hold the TRT government accountable for mismanagement and corruption. If the opposition bloc is able to hold on to enough seats to hit the 125 mark, it remains unclear how much effective their new powers will be. When a censure or impeachment measure against a government minister passes, it then goes to the nominally non-partisan Senate for a vote that is the final determinant of the outcome. However, a majority of the Senate tends to be TRT-leaning. When queried on what the opposition planned to do with this new power, if successful, none of the MP,s we spoke to were able to elucidate a clear plan, or explain which ministers would be targeted. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶14. (C) The opposition parties' success in the by-elections arms them with a potentially significant power that is, in reality, more bark than bite. Although they now have the power to initiate impeachment and censure proceedings, the likelihood of actually pushing these measures to completion is slim, given that much of the officially non-biased Senators are unofficially TRT-leaning. We have no doubt that the election results have prompted some frustration in TRT (at the rally in Uthai Thani the PM said that he would likely lose his mind if the TRT candidate lost there*we have seen no evidence of such, yet) but it is hardly the serious public backlash presented in the press. Thai Rak Thai remains very popular nationwide, and still holds the largest single-party majority in Thai political history. That said, the next round of red and yellow cards will probably force yet another round of by-elections soon and with that, another chance for the opposition to irritate the Prime Minister. BOYCE