THAILAND: VISIT TO FAR SOUTH JULY 18-19

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 004778 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV, INR PACOM FOR FPA (HUSO) E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2015 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER TH SUBJECT: THAILAND: VISIT TO FAR SOUTH JULY 18-19 REF: A. BANGKOK 4697 ¶B. BANGKOK 1008 Classified By: DCM Alexander A. Arvizu. Reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On July 18-19 Poloff and DRL/PHD Foreign Affairs Officer Vanessa Golding visited the far southern Thai provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani and Songkhla. Officers heard widespread concern that the deteriorating security situation is increasing tension between the Buddhist and Muslim communities and that Buddhist Thais, including large numbers of teachers, continue to leave the region. Several of our interlocutors believe the militant groups are attempting to draw international attention to the situation in the South by making Islam a more central part of the conflict. Many local observers believe the government's newly issued security decree will only further alienate the local population and complain that RTG security forces seem increasingly afraid to act against them. END SUMMARY ¶2. (C) Poloff and visiting DRL/PHD Foreign Affairs Office Vanessa Golding traveled to the far southern Thai provinces of Narathiwat, Pattani, and Songkhla July 18-19 as part of the Embassy's ongoing effort to monitor the continuing violence plaguing the Muslim majority region. Officers met with: Abdulkarim Gali, Vice Chairman of the Narathiwat Islamic Committee; Dr. Ibrahim Narongraksakhet, Professor of Islamic Studies at Prince of Songkhla University (PSU); Dr. Chidchanok Rahimmula, Professor of Political Science at PSU; Songkhla Deputy Governor Suthep Komonphamon; Somphong Chutansuan, Chairman of the Law Society of Thailand for the southern region; and Niphon Bunyamani, Member of Parliament from Songkhla who is from the opposition Democrat Party. SITUATION CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE ¶3. (C) Our interlocutors were uniformly gloomy about the overall situation in the South. Abdulkarim Gali, from the Narathiwat Islamic Committee, said the security situation in the South is deteriorating daily. Songkhla Deputy Governor Suthep Komonphamon agreed about the deteriorating security situation. He lamented the significant drop in tourism in Songkhla province, noting hotel occupancy rates are down 70 percent. Suthep was one of many of our interlocutors who said that the daily acts of violence had become a "cycle" of revenge killings involving Muslim militants and RTG security forces. BUDDHIST AND MUSLIM COMMUNITIES - RELATIONS GETTING WORSE ¶4. (C) Rising tension between the Buddhist and Muslim communities in the South was a central focus of discussion with many of our interlocutors. Opposition MP Niphon told us he is concerned with the possibility of more overt communal violence between the Buddhists and Muslims. Professor Ibrahim commented that the gap between the Buddhist and Muslim communities continues to widen in the South. Professor Chidchanok agreed, saying that while many Muslims feel persecuted, the Buddhist community often blames the government for offering "unfair concessions" to Muslims while failing to protect Buddhists from militant attacks. She is worried that some Buddhists in the South, feeling increasingly isolated, will take "matters into their own hands" and begin to attack Muslims. Chidchanok claimed that some Buddhist monks have been encouraging members of their communities to take up arms to defend themselves. Deputy Governor Suthep also expressed serious concern about the potential for a backlash by Thai Buddhists in the South. TEACHERS LEAVING THE SOUTH ¶5. (C) As with past trips to the South, we heard numerous reports of growing numbers of Buddhist Thais leaving the region, especially from Narathiwat province. PSU Professor Chidchanok noted that PSU, a highly regarded university, had seen a number of student transfers to the PSU Hat Yai Campus, or to other universities in Thailand even further north. In apparent confirmation of recent press reports, we heard several anecdotal accounts of teachers attempting to leave their posts in the South. Abdulkarim Gali said the continued departure of teachers from the South was complicating the Islamic Committees' efforts to work with the government on education reform initiatives. Deputy Governor Suthep noted that 300 teachers from Songkhla have requested transfers from the province. He said that Buddhist teachers have been receiving threatening leaflets and are living in fear. (NOTE: In subsequent conversations in Bangkok, Ministry of Education of Education (MOE) officials confirmed to Emboffs that they had received approximately 3,000 transfer requests from teachers in Narathiwat, Yala, Pattani and four districts of Songkhla. MOE officials would not say how many teachers had actually left the region. END NOTE) MILITANTS USING ISLAM TO "INTERNATIONALIZE" CONFLICT? ¶6. (C) Dr. Ibrahim Narongraksakhet from PSU explained about the changing nature of the conflict in the South. Ibrahim noted that historically the resistance of southern Muslims to Thai central authority had been more nationalistic than religious in nature. Ibrahim said that militants are working, and often succeeding, in trying to turn the conflict into a cause for "Jihad" in order to force the larger Muslim population into the conflict. Professor Chidchanok agreed that the militants are trying to make Islam the central feature of the conflict. She noted that in recent propaganda the militants have given added emphasis to calls for the creation of the "Islamic Republic of Pattani," vice the "Republic of Pattani." She said that the hard core of separatist are not fundamentalist, but see the use of Islam as a tool to rally the Muslim population and create further psychological separation from the rest of Thailand. She warned that the separatist groups are becoming closer ideologically, and operationally. (NOTE: Chidchanok claimed that the separatist groups in the South have created a new overarching separatist coordinating body known as the "Dewan Pemperbasan Patani" (DPP or "Assembly for the Liberation of Pattani") that aims to unite the many different ideological and operational separatist groups. She claims that the DPP has created a formal training course for indoctrinated youths called the "D-10" and that students must commit a violent act as part of the "final exam." END NOTE) ¶7. (C) During several of our meetings we were cautioned that the militants are trying to draw international attention to the situation by committing dramatic incidents -- most recently an increased number of beheadings. Deputy Governor Suthep opined that pervasive rumors of U.S. involvement in instigating the violence in the South are being spread by the militants as part of their strategy to broaden the conflict. NEW SECURITY LAW - NOT WELL RECEIVED ¶8. (C) The Emergency Decree approved by the cabinet on July 15 imposes emergency rule in the provinces of Narathiwat, Yala and Pattani. While the Bangkok press has focused on the potential impact the new law will have on civil liberties, most of our interlocutors in the South saw the new law as driving another wedge between an already disaffected community and the central government. Abdulkarim Gali said local Muslim leaders are worried the decree would lead to even more abuses from government security forces. Opposition MP Niphon Bunyamani agreed, also expressing concern that the new law would further alienate the local populace. Somphong Chutansuan, Chairman of the Law Society of Thailand for the southern region, said many Muslims view the new Emergency Decree as confirmation that the government is focused on force instead of compromise. Professor Ibrahim agreed, warning that the new security law will not only further alienate local Muslims from the rest of Thai society, but will further isolate the South economically by discouraging investment and tourism. ¶9. (C) Even local government officials, like Deputy Governor Suthep, are reluctant to endorse the decree. Suthep said that "officially" he supported the new Emergency Decree, but privately acknowledged to us that he was very concerned about the impact the law would have in the South. He said that extremists would view the law as a "declaration of war" against the Muslim community. Suthep worried that militants will use the law as another recruiting tool to rally sympathy and support from the international Muslim community. THAI SECURITY FORCES - AFRAID TO ACT? ¶10. (C) We heard numerous reports that Thai security forces are not actively patrolling or are failing to respond immediately to insurgent attacks, making the civilian population feel even more isolated and adding to the growing sense of lawlessness in the region. As with our previous visits to the region, we noticed most checkpoints were only nominally manned with police and soldiers hunkered down behind sandbags. Deputy Governor Suthep explained that the police and military are hesitant to respond to reports of attacks out of fear of secondary bombs or ambushes. Suthep is concerned that the outright hostility between local Muslim villagers and security forces are making Muslim areas effective "no go" places for RTG officials, and that security forces, sent to conduct a search or investigation in Muslim villages, will often withdraw to avoid the possibility of violent confrontation. Professor Ibrahim suggested that the July 14 Yala attacks had been a message to the government that "we (the militants) can strike wherever, whenever we want." Professor Chidchanok said that local government officials feel overwhelmed by the situation and that some believe the South has become uncontrollable. COMMENT ¶11. (C) In the far South most local residents do not cite separatism as the central cause of the violence afflicting their region. Southerners want the violence to stop so they can go about their lives -- the vast majority, as best we can tell, don't want a separate state. Most southern Muslims do want the government to "atone" for an accumulated list of grievances, respect their culture and schools, and stop what they see as the daily "injustices" committed by security forces -- but they don't support radical separatist or Islamist ideals. However, it appears that a small group of committed militants is framing the parameters of the debate, even though they are hardly representative of the desires of the vast majority of Muslims in the South. Combined with the continued flight of non-Muslims, the growing alienation among the larger Muslim populace with the central government is making the national reconciliation effort significantly more difficult. ¶12. (C) Of growing concern is the fact that the climate of fear and mutual distrust between the Buddhist and Muslim communities risks creating a cycle of violence that could take on a life of its own. Since the level of violence in the far South began to seriously escalate in January 2004, the fighting has largely centered on attacks by militants on Thai security forces and symbols of the Thai regime (especially schools),followed by heavy-handed responses from Thai security forces. This extended period of violence has created a widespread feeling of fear, isolation and anger in both the Buddhist and Muslim communities, and has the potential to expand the violence between the communities. END COMMENT BOYCE