CONFIDENT OPPOSITION LEADER SENSES THAKSIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 004646 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/19/2015 TAGS: PGOV TH SUBJECT: CONFIDENT OPPOSITION LEADER SENSES THAKSIN VULNERABILITY, BUT SEES HARD WORK AHEAD REF: (A) BANGKOK 4596 (B) BANGKOK 4367 (C) BANGKOK 4238 (D) BANGKOK 3208 Classified By: AMBASSADOR RALPH BOYCE. REASON: 1.4(D) ¶1. (C) Summary. Ambassador met with opposition leader and Democrat Party (DP) head Abhisit Vejjajiva over tea on July ¶14. This was not the dispirited Abhisit we had met with in the wake of his party's shattering defeat at the hands of Prime Minister Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) juggernaut earlier this year (ref. D). This time the opposition leader exuded quiet confidence during a wide-ranging discussion as he enumerated Thaksin's recent reverses and described his own party's need to rebuild its popular base around the country. Abhisit said that Thaksin's spending policies and ham-fisted actions in Thailand's south were causing a steady dissipation of his public support. That said, Abhisit acknowledged that to successfully challenge the TRT in the future, the DP had to build its base in the north and northeast parts of the country as well in Bangkok. End Summary. OPPOSITION LEADER WITH POSITIVE PUBLIC IMAGE ¶2. (SBU) The charismatic Abhisit is one of the strongest assets of his party. He was accompanied by party Deputy Secretary General Korn Chatikananjii and MP Sirichoke Sopha SIPDIS -- both young, articulate and considered up-and-comers within the DP hierarchy. The general election defeat earlier this year of former DP leader Banyat Bantadtan signaled to many here the end of the old guard and brought about Abhisit's appointment to the helm of the party. Abhisit had led his party in a spirited clash with Transport Minister and TRT stalwart Suriya and his advisors in a recent Parliamentary censure debate over the CTX controversy (ref. C). Although the DP's defeat in the ensuing censure vote was a foregone conclusion because of the DP's 96-seat minority in the 500 seat assembly, Abhisit's performance won him points with a Thai public grown more disenchanted over the issue of corruption by the current government. ABHISIT SEES GROWING ECONOMIC WOES FOR THAILAND UNDER THAKSIN ¶3. (C) When asked for his read of Thaksin's current economic problems, Abhisit said that Thaksin's policies, not external forces were the main causes of Thailand's slowdown. He blamed the Prime Minister's spending practices, both for populist-style programs such as universal cheap health care access as well as large infrastructure projects as fueling inflation and building current account deficits. Rising diesel prices are magnifying these policy-made economic problems, Abhisit added. Deriding Thaksin's recent announcement of civil-service raises, Abhisit opined that the amounts would do little to improve living standards but would contribute to existing inflationary pressures. HARSH POLICIES IN SOUTH NOT WORKING AND CAUSING THAKSIN LOSS OF SUPPORT ¶4. (C) Ambassador asked Abhisit if the Prime Minister's personnel changes, security tactics and the formation of the National Reconciliation Commission (NRC) several months ago were showing any progress. After all, the Ambassador pointed out, Thaksin's critics had advocated for a more wide-ranging dialogue and less heavy-handed tactics against the local inhabitants. Abhisit shook his head, saying that he saw "no progress, no coherence" in resolving the crisis in the southern border provinces. Sirichoke, a representative from the southern province of Songkhla, said that he was deeply worried over what he sees as a worsening Buddhist-Muslim divide in his constituency. Abhisit added that no matter what the NRC recommends to improve civilian-government relations in the region, police and military "violence" will continue and will further alienate the very people that the RTG needs to win over. ¶5. (C) Rather than backing off from his harsh security policies in the region, Thaksin has allowed security personnel to run unchecked, according to Abhisit and Sirichoke. "In the past the police caused people to disappear," Abhisit alleged, "now they kill suspected separatists and others openly." Abhisit and Korn argued that the Prime Minister had lost interest in the southern provinces and had essentially turned over the problem (and potential blame) to the NRC while continuing his harsh security policies -- "a violent gamble," Abhisit said. The continuing violence is hurting Thaksin with the Thai public and will continue to drain popular support from the Prime Minister. (Note: Ambassador's conversation with Abhisit took place the day before the Cabinet announced new powers given to the Prime Minister to deal with the violence in the deep south. End note.) (ref. A) ABHISIT FEARS PM MAY ANNOUNCE NEW OFFENSIVE AGAINST DRUGS ¶6. (C) Claiming that the most popular policy of Thaksin's was his brutal "war on drugs," Abhisit stated that he was fearful that the Prime Minister, mindful of his eroding public support over the economy and the south, may in a fit of desperation announce a new anti-narcotics offensive. "Drugs are back on the streets," Abhisit alleged, and went on to predict that Thaksin, not wanting to lose his one popular "accomplishment," would begin anew the police violence against drug suspects. Abhisit maintained that Thaksin may go so far as to blame foreign pressure for the failure of his earlier campaign to permanently eradicate narcotics trafficking in Thailand. Rather than allowing his police to shoot suspected traffickers under very questionable circumstances, Abhisit argued, the Prime Minister needed to establish more retraining and rehabilitation centers for addicts. WITH ALL HIS CURRENT HEADACHES, THAKSIN STILL DOMINATES THE SCENE -- ABHISIT DETERMINED TO CHANGE THAT ¶7. (C) When Ambassador asked about the DP's own intentions, Abhisit and his advisors readily admitted that their party has a lot of work to do - especially in TRT strongholds of the North and Northeast and vote-rich Bangkok. Abhisit and Sirichoke pointed to a recent poll that, while not showing a decisive swing towards the DP, did indicate an increased level of public support moving to their party. "In the last election we were weak," Abhisit admitted. But with Thaksin's ongoing troubles and a determined campaign by a new party leadership to expand its base and take on the Prime Minister over issues such as corruption, economic mismanagement and failed policies in the south, the DP feels it is on an upward trend. Abhisit said that the Party is currently in the midst of a nationwide membership drive headed by party Secretary-General Suthep Thaugsuban. SIPDIS ¶8. (C) Korn (not surprisingly) opined that the DP is a different party than TRT -- more interested in the long-term interests of Thailand. "Thaksin is not an idealist," Abhisit emphasized. Ambassador raised the issue of Thaksin's motives. Doesn't the Prime Minister have any vision of making Thailand a better place for the Thai people and not simply seeking office for power and profit? No, Abhisit stressed. Maybe in part, allowed Korn, but his idealistic urges are overwhelmed by his instincts as a businessman. Abhisit added that, apart from striving to keep his party factions happy, the cynical Thaksin constantly shuffles his cabinet so that ministers vulnerable to censure for corruption or incompetence are no longer in office when the time comes to debate their activities. ¶9. (C) Referring to that day's splashy opening by the Prime Minister of the TRT's large new high-tech headquarters in Bangkok, Abhisit joked that the Prime Minister is pushing hard to make the TRT a permanent institution. Ambassador asked him what role the 1997 Constitution played in enabling Thaksin to hold such power over his party. Abhisit replied that Thaksin used the articles in the first half of the Constitution -- which included provisions to restrict party-hopping and thus strengthened the PM's hand -- and ignored the second half relating to the establishment of neutral commissions to monitor the government's activities. In the latter case, Abhisit referred to the recent passage of a constitutional amendment that stipulated the inclusion of party MPs in the selection committee of the National Counter Corruption Commission. (ref B.) ABHISIT COMMENTS ON US-THAI RELATIONS -- CTX, COUNTER TERRORISM AND FTA ¶10. (C) Abhisit acknowledged that the whole CTX issue, involving allegations of bribery connected with the sale of American airport security screening equipment to Thailand, would not have come under public scrutiny without U.S. assistance. Referring to Thai Muslims, Abhisit cautioned that the U.S. should not allow its war on terror to be mistakenly perceived as a war on Islam. Abhisit also noted that the Thai public is sensitive to the outcome of the FTA discussions between Thailand and the United States. There is a fear that Thailand will be on the losing end. Ambassador reminded Abhisit -- and he strongly agreed -- that the Thai need more transparency on their side when it comes to the government reporting on the substance and status of the negotiations. That would do much to reduce any public unease over the discussions. ABHISIT AND DP SEE AN OPENING ¶11. (C) Comment: This was a new and confident Democrat Party leadership compared to our meeting earlier this year. Abhisit and his advisors perceive Thaksin as beginning to reap the results of profligate spending policies and a cavalier approach to the long-term southern crisis. If they appeared to sense political blood in the water, they also seemed to harbor few illusions over the tough job they have ahead. Behind their often sarcastic comments about Thaksin's political insensitivities was their acknowledgment that the PM is a tough political operator with formidable political and financial resources. The opposition appears to have regrouped, and seems prepared to adopt a long-range approach while seizing any tactical initiative, such as challenging any misstep by the Prime Minister (especially corruption charges where he is somewhat vulnerable) and keeping the issues before the Thai public. BOYCE