THAILAND: THE SOUTH - IMPRESSIONS FROM FEBRUARY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 001008 SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EAP, EAP/BCLTV PACOM FOR FPA (HUSO) E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/03/2014 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER TH SUBJECT: THAILAND: THE SOUTH - IMPRESSIONS FROM FEBRUARY 1-2 VISIT REF: A. BANGKOK 869 ¶B. 04 BANGKOK 8377 ¶C. 04 BANGKOK 7171 ¶D. 04 BANGKOK 6647 ¶E. 04 KUALA LUMPUR 4806 Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Clarke. Reason 1.4(d) ¶1. (C) Summary: On February 1-2, Emboffs made a pre-election visit to Songkhla and Pattani provinces as part of an ongoing effort to monitor the situation in southern Thailand. In meetings with local businessmen, bankers, politicians, and journalists, they repeatedly heard claims that significant numbers of non-Muslims are abandoning the far south out of fear. Local business leaders reported that the worsening security has scared off new investment in the region and caused labor shortages, despite positive economic factors that normally should attract investors and workers. Just prior to the February 6 election, the Thaksin administration expanded existing security measures and increased the number of military personnel in the South. The phenomenon of increasing numbers of non-Muslim Thais leaving the region as a result of separatist violence, if accurate, would have serious consequences for the South. End Summary. ¶2. (SBU) Embassy Political and Economic officers completed a joint reporting trip to the southern Thai provinces of Songkhla and Pattani February 1-2 as part of Embassy Bangkok's continued close observation of the situation in southern Thailand. They met with local political leaders, leading businessmen and bankers, and journalists. TALES OF HEAVY MIGRATION -- CLAIMS THAT 100,000 NON-MUSLIMS HAVE FLED THE SOUTH ¶3. (C) As noted reftels B and C, anecdotal evidence is growing that the immediate goal of the separatist militants in southern Thailand is to drive non-Muslims out of the region. This theme was echoed repeatedly and more intensely across the entire range of interlocutors who met with Emboffs. A respected journalist said that he and other local observers estimate that 100,000 Buddhist and ethnic Chinese Thais have abandoned the three southernmost provinces of Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat over the past year, moving to Songkhla province, or further north. He said local security officials have similar estimates on the number of non-Muslims who have left the region. Chairat Thavarorit, the Senior 
Executive for the southern region for the Bank of Thailand, and a long-time regional resident, voiced an assertion repeated by many people during this visit: the separatist militants aim to destroy the bonds between the Buddhist and Muslim communities and to raise tensions to a point where non-Muslims leave; and they have succeeded. (Note: Official confirmation of these numbers is difficult. According to census figures from the Department of Religious Affairs taken in 1999, there are approximately 1.7 million people in the provinces of Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat. Of those, approximately 400,000 are Buddhists. Residents are required to inform their district office when they move, but this regulation is only loosely enforced. In any case, the RTG does not centrally collect such data. End Note.) THE MIGRATION'S ECONOMIC IMPACT ¶4. (C) Regardless of the exact number of people who have fled the region, the business community claims that migration out is having a noticeable economic impact. Boonlert Laparojkid, the President of the Songkhla Chamber of Commerce, and other chamber members insisted that the militants' push to drive non-Muslims out of the three southernmost provinces has resulted in business people leaving for Hat Yai, or locations further north. Some families moved to the next province north while the breadwinner continues to work in his/her job in the troubled area. (Note: These comments echo earlier sentiments expressed by members of the Narathiwat Chamber of Commerce - reftel B - End Note.) Boonlert claimed that "all the top people -- those with money and potential -- have left the south out of fear." Chamber members noted that the construction and housing industry is booming in Hat Yai because of the greatly increased demand for housing from people fleeing the deep south. Rosarin Sojiphan, the Director of the Government Savings Bank in Songkhla, confirmed this trend. Rosarin said that her bank handled a large increase in requests for housing loans in the Hat Yai area over the past year. Rosarin identified ethnic Chinese and Buddhist Thais from the far south as the applicants searching for homes in Hat Yai. Members of the Pattani Chamber of Commerce expressed similar opinions. They claimed to have observed a steady migration of Buddhist and ethnic Chinese Thais from the south, and said that at a minimum, these populations were moving out of the villages to larger urban areas. They noted that rubber and agricultural production has been impacted because militants often target agricultural works for shooting or intimidation and arson attacks. ¶5. (C) Banker Rosarin Sojiphan noted that skilled workers, and even civil servants, are moving north because they have transferable skills. In addition, laborers from Northeast Thailand (Issan),who normally make up the majority of construction and factory workers, have stopped coming to the south out of fear. A journalist contact agreed that laborers from Issan have disappeared from the deep south, making it difficult for construction companies to hire adequate labor for ongoing projects. Fishing industry executives complained about similar labor problems, saying that many Burmese laborers have left for safer regions. This apparent labor exodus is underway despite the fact (per Bank of Thailand reports) that factory workers in the south are paid higher daily wages (about Bt200/US$5.1) than counterparts elsewhere in Thailand (Bt139/US$3.6) ¶6. (C) Thawon Senniem, a Democratic Party (DP) leader in Songkhla province, noted that while rubber prices are at record highs, many Buddhist rubber tappers are afraid to collect at their groves because of attacks and intimidation. Chairat Thavarorit, senior Bank of Thailand official, agreed. He said that violence is also having a direct impact on overall investment in the region. New investment in additional or expanded rubber plantations is lacking despite high prices for raw latex and rubber products. Olarn Uyakul, the Chairman of the Songkhla chapter of the Federation of Thai Industries, averred that he and other business people are prepared to invest additional capital in their southern operations, but not until the security situation improves. Banker Chirat concurred that if there is a further escalation of violence in the region, existing businesses will rapidly disinvest. He said that the recent closures of hotels (reftel B) and restaurants, and the absence of Malaysian and other tourists, are only the first signs pointing to future business failures. Pattani business contacts complained that their businesses are being affected by the reluctance of government product inspectors from outside the region to conduct their normal safety and health inspections due to perceived dangers from terrorists. ¶7. (SBU) Despite all these reported problems, the economy in the three southern provinces has in fact remained fairly stable due to the strong demand for rubber and the region's seafood -- the largest contributors to the southern economy. A car/motorcycle dealer said his business is good. The assistant manager of the Pattani "Big C" department store (reftels B, C) also reported steady profits. Only those whose businesses are directly tied to tourism (mostly Malaysian) seem to be suffering decline. The Bank of Thailand regional economist told Emboffs that the price of the area's rubber crop has increased 16.2 percent in 2004 and that the economic effect of this flowed through the entire regional economy. (Economic statistics are not broken out by province). ELECTIONS - HEIGHTENED SECURITY, BUT POLITICIANS AFRAID TO CAMPAIGN ¶8. (C) Emboffs found the security presence in Pattani more visible than in previous trips there. Checkpoints that before had not been manned, or were only nominally manned, now had fully armed troops inspecting passing vehicles. According to the Pattani Election Commission (EC),these measures were not specifically directed at election security but are part of the government's overall plan to increase the number of security forces in the region. (Note: The week of Emboffs' visit the RTG announced plans to create the 15th Infantry Division for southern Thailand, a force that reportedly will focus on civil affairs projects. End Note.) EC members noted, however, that the troops would be on a heightened state of alert during the election. (Note: There were no serious instances of violence on election day. End Note.) ¶9. (C) The increase in security forces apparently did not reassure candidates in the region. DP leader Thawon Senniem told Emboffs that many politicians were afraid to campaign in much of the deep south, especially outside of the cities. In the past large rallies where held, but during this year's campaign, most politicians had opted for small gatherings only. Thawon noted that even when former DP Prime Minister Chuan Leekpai went on a southern campaign swing, his appearances were deliberately subdued due to security concerns. The Pattani MP candidate of Thaksin's Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party, Atthachan Chaowanit, sounded similar concerns. He said lack of confidence in security had directly impacted the TRT's election strategy in the south. Members of the Pattani EC repeated these observations, noting that campaigning for the February 6 election was very different in style from the past because politicians were afraid to be in public. ¶10. (C) Comment: Increased emigration of non-Muslim Thais from the provinces of Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat -- and rising intra-communal tensions -- resulting from the current violent situation would have serious consequences for the south, for all the reasons outlined by Embassy interlocutors. It may be that the emigration trend has not garnered sufficiently widespread attention inside and outside Thailand partially because it is happening on a family-by-family basis. Daily shooting, bombing and arson attacks get the headlines, and certainly would draw attention away from the possible reality on the ground: non-Muslim Thais are leaving Pattani, Yala, and Narathiwat. ¶11. (C) The premise of the Thaksin government's response to the problems in the South is that economic hardship is the underlying source of the Muslim discontent (reftel A). None of Emboff's interlocutors agreed with this assessment, citing instead lack of justice, the corruption of local officials, social issues and "troublemakers" as the real causes of the problem. There is no shortage of jobs, both skilled and unskilled, in the southern region, and wages are higher than average, so the poverty argument seems weak. Rather than economic issues being the source of the violence, the violence could be the cause of emerging provincial economic difficulties. (Note: After the failure of Thaksin's TRT party even to hold its ground in the South in the February 6 election, the Prime Minister indicated that he may rethink his strategy there. End Note.) End Comment. BOYCE