SHIA ISLAMIST FADHILA LEADER THROWING HIS HAT IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 005162

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/30/2025
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: SHIA ISLAMIST FADHILA LEADER THROWING HIS HAT IN
THE RING TOO

Classified By: POL COUNS ROBERT FORD, REASON 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) Fadhila Party members Muhammad Ismail al-
Khazali and Hassan al-Shimry told PolCouns and PolOff
December 30 that Dr. Nadeem al-Jabiri, the party's
Secretary General, is one of four candidates for Prime

SIPDIS
Minister within the Shia Alliance ? the others being
PM Jafari, VP Abdel Mehdi, and TNA Deputy Speaker
Shahristani. They anticipated that deciding who the
Shia Coalition prime minister candidate would be could
take weeks still. Prime Minister Jafari has strong
Dawa and Sadr support, they asserted. By contrast,
SCIRI backs Adil Abdel Mehdi. Al-Shimry later told
PolFSN that Fadhila is dissatisfied with PM Jafari and
his performance but Dawa and Sadr won't accept Abdel
Mehdi. If there is a real deadlock, the two Fadhila
leaders guessed that SCIRI may accept al-Jabiri as PM.
They characterized Dr. Hussein Shahristani's candidacy
as weak, opining that he may withdraw his name soon.


2. (C) Al-Khazali and Al-Shimry agreed with the
assessment that the next government needs to be
inclusive and include ministers that are chosen for
their experience and competence, and not on the basis
of the political spoils system. They said Fadhila
supports the idea of a national unity government with
an open door to all parties. They cited al-Jabiri's
role as a bridge between the Sunni and Shia
communities, especially during the Cairo Conference.
They added that they do not close the door on
discussions, "even with Dr. Allawi." They reminded us
that Jabiri had attended the conference at which
Allawi's Patriotic List was established in October.


3. (C) Al-Khazali and Al-Shimry said that security and
economic investment would be top priorities for an al-
Jabiri-led government. PolCouns stressed the
importance to the Sunni Arabs of the issues of
detainees and the actions of the security forces. The
two Fadhila members defended the leadership of the
security forces, saying that many of the incidents are
the result of low-level officers and men acting
without orders. They blamed the mindset inherited
from Saddam, saying that additional training is
required to change it. They also warned of
"penetrations" of the security services posing a major
threat to security. (Comment: They were obviously
referring to alleged Baathist penetrations. End
Comment.) They did acknowledge the presence of
militias, but said that the reasons why they exist --
insecurity in neighborhoods and unemployment -- must
be addressed to solve the militia problem.


4. (C) Comment: What a difference two months make.
In November, Fadhila's dissatisfaction with their
position in the Shia Coalition fueled a public desire
to leave the Coalition. Now, given the intense
competition between PM Jafari and VP Abdel Mehdi,
Nadeem al-Jabiri might be seen as a viable alternative
and be the next Prime Minister. Certainly Abdel Mehdi
supporters had counted on Fadhila party support, and
if that proves false, Abdel Mehdi's candidacy will
suffer a real blow. We sense there is still much
horse-trading ahead, but already the competition
inside the Shia Coalition is hard and getting harder.
KHALILZAD