SMALL SECULAR PARTY: IECI SAYS 468 VOTES, OUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 005099

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM IZ
SUBJECT: SMALL SECULAR PARTY: IECI SAYS 468 VOTES, OUR
OBSERVERS SAY OVER 100,000


Classified By: Pol Couns Robert Ford, reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary. Abid Faisal al-Sahlani, the leader of
the National Democratic Alliance, told PolOff and
PolFSN December 21 that the IECI's preliminary results
for Baghdad contrasted massively with the results
collected by their election observers (462 votes
versus 109,000 votes). The 468 votes also contrast
sharply with the 14,000 votes the party received in
January. PolOff encouraged them to file a complaint
with the IECI since they claimed to have specific
information, but they appeared uncertain about doing
so. We doubt they got anywhere close to 100,000 votes
but the issue is bigger: their reluctance to file
complaints points to doubts we hear from other
contacts about the election commission's credibility.
Small political actors now need confidence that
the system is free enough for them to grow to be big
political actors later if Iraqi democracy is to grow.
End Summary

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WHAT HAPPENED TO THE 105,000 VOTES WE RECEIVED?
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2. (C) Poloff and PolFSN met December 21 with Abid
Faisal al-Sahlani, a leading figure in the National
Democratic Alliance (List 660),and his daughter,
Beera al-Sahlani. The National Democratic Alliance is
a small liberal, secular party, and al-Sahlani is
their only member in the TNA. According to both, 80
percent of their 250 election monitors in Baghdad
stayed until the ballots were counted in the polling
centers, and they estimated the party had received
109,000 votes. They also claimed that one of the
computers in the tally center December 18 showed the
party had received 95,000 votes (Note: this allegation
is somewhat misleading since it is difficult, if not
impossible, for tally center observers to see IECI
staff computers screens and no one tally center
computer would have the results of the elections. End
Note). However, according to the uncertified
preliminary results released by the IECI December 20,
the party received only 468 votes. As a comparison,
the party received 14,350 votes in the January TNA
elections and 46,265 votes in the Baghdad provincial
council elections.


3. (C) Both Abid Faisal and Beera were stunned by the
preliminary results, particularly since they said
their campaign had began just after the elections in
January and they had been in touch with people through
their pre-election activities. They added that Abdul
Satar Al-Ubeidi (List 554),an independent candidate
they helped support in the election, received 4,312
votes in Baghdad. They also said that, since the
January elections, the party added several prominent
members to their Baghdad candidate list: Mazin Makia,
recently-deposed Chairman of the Baghdad Provincial
Council and former member of the Shia Alliance; Zaidan
al-Zuhairi, former member of the Islamic Action party;
and Muhammad al-Rubai, Chairman of the Karada District
Advisory Council and former member of the Shia
Coalition. They claimed that both Makia and al-Rubai
were invited to leave the National Democratic Alliance
before the elections and return to the Shia Alliance,
but they refused. They speculated Makia's recent
removal was the result of his refusal to return and
the Shia Alliance's focus on marginalizing those who
left their list.

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ELECTION VIOLATIONS - USING THE IECI ?
--------------


4. (C) They said the Jaish al-Mehdi (JAM) was present
in force on election day in Sadr City and Bab al-
Sharqiyah. They claimed to have specific information
that, when Shia Alliance supporters learned that a
polling center in Karada was voting for Ayad Allawi,
this mobile group was called in to vote in the center
and balance out the vote.


5. (C) They said they had filed only one complaint
during the pre-election period, when a radio station
said the National Democratic Alliance was joining Ayad
Allawi's National Iraqi List (List 731). When PolOff
asked whether they would file an official complaint to
the IECI about the fraud allegations, they initially
said they had to wait for final results to be
announced. PolOff encouraged them to file a complaint
with the IECI since they had specific information:
polling center names and numbers; names of election
observers, and the number of votes they thought they
received by polling center. They seemed unsure since
they did not believe it would have any effect.

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COMMENT
--------------


6. (C) The number of votes the National Democratic
Alliance claims to have received is very likely
exaggerated, particularly given their past voting
history. However, it seems credible that the party
did better than 468 votes in the governorate where
they received over 14,000 votes in January. The local
political figures they added to their lists suggest
that they should not have finished worse than they did
in January. Their reluctance to file complaints
points to problems with the election commission's
credibility. We are hearing complaints about the
commission from Sunni Arabs and some of the
independents who got shut out for reasons they say
violate Iraqi law (such as Ali Debagh). For Iraqi
democracy to grow, those who are small political
actors now need confidence that the system is open
enough for them to grow to be bigger political forces
later. End Comment.
KHALILZAD