SMALL SECULAR PARTY: IECI SAYS 468 VOTES, OUR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 005099 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/2015 TAGS: PGOV PHUM IZ SUBJECT: SMALL SECULAR PARTY: IECI SAYS 468 VOTES, OUR OBSERVERS SAY OVER 100,000 Classified By: Pol Couns Robert Ford, reason 1.4 (d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Abid Faisal al-Sahlani, the leader of the National Democratic Alliance, told PolOff and PolFSN December 21 that the IECI's preliminary results for Baghdad contrasted massively with the results collected by their election observers (462 votes versus 109,000 votes). The 468 votes also contrast sharply with the 14,000 votes the party received in January. PolOff encouraged them to file a complaint with the IECI since they claimed to have specific information, but they appeared uncertain about doing so. We doubt they got anywhere close to 100,000 votes but the issue is bigger: their reluctance to file complaints points to doubts we hear from other contacts about the election commission's credibility. Small political actors now need confidence that the system is free enough for them to grow to be big political actors later if Iraqi democracy is to grow. End Summary -------------- -- WHAT HAPPENED TO THE 105,000 VOTES WE RECEIVED? -------------- -- ¶2. (C) Poloff and PolFSN met December 21 with Abid Faisal al-Sahlani, a leading figure in the National Democratic Alliance (List 660),and his daughter, Beera al-Sahlani. The National Democratic Alliance is a small liberal, secular party, and al-Sahlani is their only member in the TNA. According to both, 80 percent of their 250 election monitors in Baghdad stayed until the ballots were counted in the polling centers, and they estimated the party had received 109,000 votes. They also claimed that one of the computers in the tally center December 18 showed the party had received 95,000 votes (Note: this allegation is somewhat misleading since it is difficult, if not impossible, for tally center observers to see IECI staff computers screens and no one tally center computer would have the results of the elections. End Note). However, according to the uncertified preliminary results released by the IECI December 20, the party received only 468 votes. As a comparison, the party received 14,350 votes in the January TNA elections and 46,265 votes in the Baghdad provincial council elections. ¶3. (C) Both Abid Faisal and Beera were stunned by the preliminary results, particularly since they said their campaign had began just after the elections in January and they had been in touch with people through their pre-election activities. They added that Abdul Satar Al-Ubeidi (List 554),an independent candidate they helped support in the election, received 4,312 votes in Baghdad. They also said that, since the January elections, the party added several prominent members to their Baghdad candidate list: Mazin Makia, recently-deposed Chairman of the Baghdad Provincial Council and former member of the Shia Alliance; Zaidan al-Zuhairi, former member of the Islamic Action party; and Muhammad al-Rubai, Chairman of the Karada District Advisory Council and former member of the Shia Coalition. They claimed that both Makia and al-Rubai were invited to leave the National Democratic Alliance before the elections and return to the Shia Alliance, but they refused. They speculated Makia's recent removal was the result of his refusal to return and the Shia Alliance's focus on marginalizing those who left their list. -------------- ELECTION VIOLATIONS - USING THE IECI ? -------------- ¶4. (C) They said the Jaish al-Mehdi (JAM) was present in force on election day in Sadr City and Bab al- Sharqiyah. They claimed to have specific information that, when Shia Alliance supporters learned that a polling center in Karada was voting for Ayad Allawi, this mobile group was called in to vote in the center and balance out the vote. ¶5. (C) They said they had filed only one complaint during the pre-election period, when a radio station said the National Democratic Alliance was joining Ayad Allawi's National Iraqi List (List 731). When PolOff asked whether they would file an official complaint to the IECI about the fraud allegations, they initially said they had to wait for final results to be announced. PolOff encouraged them to file a complaint with the IECI since they had specific information: polling center names and numbers; names of election observers, and the number of votes they thought they received by polling center. They seemed unsure since they did not believe it would have any effect. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) The number of votes the National Democratic Alliance claims to have received is very likely exaggerated, particularly given their past voting history. However, it seems credible that the party did better than 468 votes in the governorate where they received over 14,000 votes in January. The local political figures they added to their lists suggest that they should not have finished worse than they did in January. Their reluctance to file complaints points to problems with the election commission's credibility. We are hearing complaints about the commission from Sunni Arabs and some of the independents who got shut out for reasons they say violate Iraqi law (such as Ali Debagh). For Iraqi democracy to grow, those who are small political actors now need confidence that the system is open enough for them to grow to be bigger political forces later. End Comment. KHALILZAD