DPM SHAWAYS EXPRESSES MISTRUST OF THE UIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 005090

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2015
TAGS: PHUM MOPS KJUS PINS PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: DPM SHAWAYS EXPRESSES MISTRUST OF THE UIA

REF: BAGHDAD 5024

Classified By: RULE OF LAW COORDINATOR JAMES YELLIN FOR REASON 1.4.(D)

SUMMARY
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1. (C) On December 17, First Deputy Prime Minister Rowsh
Shaways told U.S. officials that too strong a performance in
the December 15 elections by the predominantly Shia United
Iraqi Alliance (UIA) would undermine the prospects for
democracy in Iraq.


2. (C) Shaways said Iran controls the UIA and is developing
intelligence networks, cultivating local allies, and
identifying potential targets to create problems later if it
wants. END SUMMARY.

SHAWAYS EXPRESSES MISTRUST OF SCIRI
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3. (C) As reported reftel, on December 17 Embassy ROL
Coordinator and Deputy to the MNF-I Deputy Chief of Staff for
Intelligence met with First Deputy Prime Minister Rowsh
Shaways. When asked about likely developments in the wake of
the December 15 elections, Shaways said that:

-- Too strong an electoral performance by the predominantly
Shia United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) would undermine the
prospects for democracy in Iraq.

-- If the UIA wins more than 110 seats in the new parliament,
it will probably not build a broad-based coalition government
and will seize control of key ministries. This lack of
checks on its influence would allow the UIA to use the next
four years to consolidate power and build a new dictatorship.

-- SCIRI and the Badr Corps would like to have control of key
ministries, particularly Interior and Defense, to consolidate
Shia influence. In the current government, SCIRI succeeded
in controlling much of the Ministry of Interior because
Minister Baqir Jabr is a SCIRI member. SCIRI tried to fill
key positions in the Ministry of Defense with its supporters
but Minister Saadoun al-Dulaymi, a Sunni, resisted.

-- It is impossible to develop trust between secular parties
such as the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Islamist
parties such as SCIRI and Dawa because their worldviews are
so different. (Shaways is a member of the KDP.)

SHAWAYS EXPRESSES SUSPICION OF IRAN
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4. (C) Shaways claimed that both SCIRI and Dawa, the key
parties in the UIA, are controlled by Iran.


5. (C) He continued that foreign Islamic militants pose a
more immediate threat to stability in Iraq than Iran. In the
long term, he said, Iran poses a greater threat and is
developing intelligence networks and cultivating local allies
to create problems later if it wants.

COMMENT
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6. (C) The remarks by Shaways are a reminder that the main
Kurdish political parties, especially the KDP, are
uncomfortable working too closely with the Islamists. In the
end, they may cut a deal with the UIA, but many will not be
enthusiastic about it.
KHALILZAD