DPM SHAWAYS EXPRESSES MISTRUST OF THE UIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 005090 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2015 TAGS: PHUM MOPS KJUS PINS PGOV IZ SUBJECT: DPM SHAWAYS EXPRESSES MISTRUST OF THE UIA REF: BAGHDAD 5024 Classified By: RULE OF LAW COORDINATOR JAMES YELLIN FOR REASON 1.4.(D) SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) On December 17, First Deputy Prime Minister Rowsh Shaways told U.S. officials that too strong a performance in the December 15 elections by the predominantly Shia United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) would undermine the prospects for democracy in Iraq. ¶2. (C) Shaways said Iran controls the UIA and is developing intelligence networks, cultivating local allies, and identifying potential targets to create problems later if it wants. END SUMMARY. SHAWAYS EXPRESSES MISTRUST OF SCIRI -------------- ¶3. (C) As reported reftel, on December 17 Embassy ROL Coordinator and Deputy to the MNF-I Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence met with First Deputy Prime Minister Rowsh Shaways. When asked about likely developments in the wake of the December 15 elections, Shaways said that: -- Too strong an electoral performance by the predominantly Shia United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) would undermine the prospects for democracy in Iraq. -- If the UIA wins more than 110 seats in the new parliament, it will probably not build a broad-based coalition government and will seize control of key ministries. This lack of checks on its influence would allow the UIA to use the next four years to consolidate power and build a new dictatorship. -- SCIRI and the Badr Corps would like to have control of key ministries, particularly Interior and Defense, to consolidate Shia influence. In the current government, SCIRI succeeded in controlling much of the Ministry of Interior because Minister Baqir Jabr is a SCIRI member. SCIRI tried to fill key positions in the Ministry of Defense with its supporters but Minister Saadoun al-Dulaymi, a Sunni, resisted. -- It is impossible to develop trust between secular parties such as the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Islamist parties such as SCIRI and Dawa because their worldviews are so different. (Shaways is a member of the KDP.) SHAWAYS EXPRESSES SUSPICION OF IRAN -------------- ¶4. (C) Shaways claimed that both SCIRI and Dawa, the key parties in the UIA, are controlled by Iran. ¶5. (C) He continued that foreign Islamic militants pose a more immediate threat to stability in Iraq than Iran. In the long term, he said, Iran poses a greater threat and is developing intelligence networks and cultivating local allies to create problems later if it wants. COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) The remarks by Shaways are a reminder that the main Kurdish political parties, especially the KDP, are uncomfortable working too closely with the Islamists. In the end, they may cut a deal with the UIA, but many will not be enthusiastic about it. KHALILZAD