PRELIMINARY ELECTION RESULTS FOR ALL GOVERNORATES

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 005087 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2015 TAGS: PNAT PGOV PTER KDEM IZ SUBJECT: PRELIMINARY ELECTION RESULTS FOR ALL GOVERNORATES Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: Post analysis on the preliminary and partial election counts shows the Shia Coalition winning 131 of the 275 Council of Representative Seats, with 53 seats going to the Kurdish Alliance, and 41 seats to Sunni Arab-dominated Tawaffuq. This would put the Shia Coalition in a very strong position going into negotiations about the formation of the next governorate. These estimates are preliminary and may change somewhat after the 300,000 - 400,000 OCV and special voting ballots are tallied and a full and certified count has been conducted. The IECI has counted 90 percent of the results nationwide, and only 50 percent in Al Anbar. Among the notable seat absences is the Ahmed Chalabi's Iraqi National Congress (List 569),who did not win a governorate seat. With a little over 20,000 votes nationwide, List 569 is about 20,000 short in gaining a compensatory seat. Chalabi's luck may change, however, with a full counting of votes. End Summary. ¶2. (C) The IECI announced in its press conference December 20 that it had counted 90 percent of the votes for 17 governates, and approximately 50 percent of the vote for Anbar. Using data posted on the IECI website, Post estimated the following seat allocation. We strongly caution that not all votes are tallied yet, but we expect results to appear roughly as follows: -- Shia Alliance (List 555) - 131 seats -- Kurdish Alliance (List 730) - 53 seats -- Tawaffuq (List 618) - 41 seats -- National Iraqi List (List 731) - 25 seats -- National Dialogue (List 667) - 11 seats -- Kurdistan Islamic Union (List 561) - 5 seats -- Liberation and Reconciliation (List 516) - 3 seats -- Al-Rissaliyun (List 631) - 2 seats -- Mithal al-Alusi (List 620) - 1 seat -- Al-Rafidain (List 740) - 1 seat -- Iraqi Turkman Front (List 630) - 1 seat -- El Ezediah Movement (List 668) - 1 seat We obtained a copy of the IECI's initial tally of the 230 seats awarded at the provincial level, and it matched ours exactly. We have not seen any IECI preliminary tally of compensatory seats; they may well wait until the OCV votes are tallied. ¶3. (C) This count puts the Shia Alliance in a very strong position. To reach a two-thirds voting majority to name the presidency council, the Shia Coalition List 555 would only need 53 more votes - the exact number projected for the Kurdish Alliance. ¶4. (C) A surprising feature of these preliminary results is that none of the compensatory seats likely will be awarded in a compensatory fashion. The higher voter turnout - over 10.5 million - has raised the threshold for getting a compensatory seat on a national tally very high. The smaller, underrepresented parties so far do not have enough votes nationwide to reach that threshold. Instead, those smaller parties had a better chance winning a governorate seat - Al Rafidain (List 740) for example is projected to win 1 governorate seat with less than 10,000 votes, instead of the 40,000 votes nationwide needed for a compensatory seat. If the data holds, we estimate the Shia Alliance will win 21 compensatory seats and the Kurdish Alliance will win 10. KHALILZAD