ALLAWI BUILDS HIS POST-ELECTION COALITION

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 005030 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2015 TAGS: PGOV PINS IZ SUBJECT: ALLAWI BUILDS HIS POST-ELECTION COALITION Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (S) Summary. Head of the National Iraqi National List (731),former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, told the Ambassador he believes Iraq needs a national unity government to deal with the challenges ahead. He has begun talks to put together a cross-ethnic, cross- sectarian coalition that would include Sunni Arabs, Kurds, and some Islamist Shi'a. They intend to wait until the results of the election are known before announcing their coalition openly. Allawi also has security concerns with a number of recent moves by the Iraqi Transitional Government and fears a possible assassination attempt. The Ministry of State for National Security, 'Abd al-Karim al-'Anzi, is passing Iraqi government secrets to Iran and is gathering information on the movements of non-UIA Iraqi leaders, Allawi claimed. End summary. ¶2. (S) As part of a series of consultations with senior Iraqi political leaders, Amb. Khalilzad met on December 16 with the head of the National Iraqi List (731),former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi. Allawi thought the National Iraqi List had done well in the election overall, but that results are not yet known nationwide. In Diwaniyah (8 seats out of the 230 provincial seats) and Samawa (5 seats),he thought that the National Iraqi List had split the votes with the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) (555). In Nasiriyah (12 seats) and other southern provinces, Allawi said the UIA is leading. In pockets of Basrah (16 seats),which is Shi'a but has areas with a significant Sunni minority, Allawi's list will be in the lead, he opined. Government Formation Talks Already Beginning -------------- ¶3. (C) Allawi told the Ambassador that a national unity government is the right step for Iraq at this time. He has already begun separate consultations with Tawaffuq (618) leader Shaykh 'Adnan Dulaymi, Iraqi Front for National Dialogue (667) leader Salah Mutlaq, and Kurdistan Democratic Party head Ma'sud Barzani. Once the results of the election are known, but not before, they will announce their coalition openly. ¶4. (C) Allawi has also been in touch with the Fadhilla Party, now a part of the UIA, and with Sadr supporters including 'Abd al-Hadi al-'Araji. Independent Shi'a politician 'Ali al-Dabbagh, who had been a part of the UIA in January but ran in December as the head of the Independent Grouping of Iraq's Competent People (835),a separate Shi'a list, is someone who might serve in government. (Note: An Allawi aide told PolOffs that Dabbagh had approached Allawi and his senior staff in the week before the election after Dabbagh had seen Grand Ayatollah 'Ali al-Sistani's implicit endorsement of the UIA list despite promises that there would be no such endorsement. Dabbagh himself told PolOffs he was very disappointed about this implicit endorsement, and that even a direct conversation with Muhammad Ridha al- Sistani had failed to secure the marja'iyya's neutrality in the election. End note.) Allawi said that he has also been approached by the Jaysh al- Muhammad, associated with former supporters of the Ba'th Party, in which they expressed interest in ending their role in the insurgency and meeting with him. ¶5. (S) Some government ministries, according to Allawi, should be eliminated, such as the Ministry of National Security, now headed by the hard-line Da'wa Party-Iraq Organization head 'Abd al-Karim al-'Anzi. ¶6. (S) Allawi said that Iraq's next president could continue to be a Kurd or it could be a Sunni Arab, such as a tribal leader, a pre-Saddam Hussein military officer, or an elder statesman like 'Adnan Pachachi. The Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) would, of course, have to be compensated for giving up the presidency by giving them an important ministry like the Ministry of Defense, and he recognized that President Jalal Talabani himself would probably not accept a ministerial portfolio, no matter how important. The Ministry of Interior should probably go to a Sunni Arab, Allawi said. Security Concerns with the Present Government -------------- ¶7. (S) Confiding to the Ambassador, Allawi said that he feared an assassination attempt and stated that the Minister of State for National Security 'Abd al-Karim al-'Anzi's has established a cell to collect intelligence within the Iraqi government and pass it to Iran. Allawi added that Al-'Anzi is also collecting information on the movements of key Iraqis not part of the UIA. This information could be used to target them for assassination. ¶8. (S) Allawi said that Cabinet Secretary-General Khudayr Abbas Hadi (of Prime Minister Ja'fari's Da'wa al-Islamiya party) is seeking to identify Allawi supporters in the cabinet secretariat to replace them with Shi'a loyal to the Islamist parties. (Note: A Sunni aide to Deputy Prime Minister 'Abd Mutlak al- Jaburi told PolCouns that Abbas was trying to re- assign him from the Cabinet's payroll, from which he was seconded to Jaburi's office, to the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs. There are signs that the purge, if that is what it is, is directed at Sunnis as well as at Allawi supporters. End note.) ¶9. (C) Comment. Allawi is starting out to build a cross-ethnic, cross-sectarian coalition by starting with his base and expanding outwards. He and the other top leaders know they will need to be working together in the new Council of Representatives and the new Iraqi government. We anticipate a lot of hard bargaining ahead. Over the next few days, we anticipate urging all political leaders to lower the level of their campaign rhetoric and focus on coming together to deal with the practical challenges of forming a government. End comment. KHALILZAD