SHIA ISLAMIST LEADERS REACT TO ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 005027

SIPDIS

CENTCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2025
TAGS: PGOV PINS IZ
SUBJECT: SHIA ISLAMIST LEADERS REACT TO ELECTIONS

REF: BAGHDAD 5019 BAGHDAD 5010

Classified By: POL COUNS Robert S. Ford, reason 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Reacting to the December 15 elections,
prominent members of the Shia Islamist Coalition (List 555)
Dr. Saad Jawad Qindeel of SCIRI, Hassan al Rubaie of the
Sadr Bureau, Mohammed Ismael al-Khuzai of the Fadhila Party
expressed their confidence to PolOff and Pol/FSN. They all
feel UIC 555 will win at least 100 seats in the next
National Assembly. They all feel the election went rather
well throughout the country, but expressed some concerns
about the voting. One aide to coalition leader Abdel Aziz
al-Hakim told Poloff that discussion of cabinet seat
assignments had to wait for the election results. He
assured Poloff, however, that Sunni Arabs and Kurds would
get some seats in the next cabinet that the aide assumed
would be led by the Shia Islamist Coalition. END SUMMARY.

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Thus Spake SCIRI
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2. (C) SCIRI spokesperson Saad Qandeel told PolOff in a
December 15 phone interview that the election went well
overall. He is confident the United Iraqi Coalition (UIC -
List 555) will emerge as the largest party in the National
Assembly and have at least 100 seats. He did express
concern that some Iraqis who had recently moved from one
city to another, particularly from Tal Afar to Karbala and
Nasiriyah, were not able to vote because their names were
not on the voter registries.


3. (C) SCIRI Chief of Staff Haitham al Husseini told PolOff
in a December 15 phone interview that he thinks UIC 555
will win at least 110 seats in the National Assembly. When
asked about the distribution of ministries, he said that
will not be seriously discussed until after the election
results are announced. Haitham added, that, despite
reports to the contrary, the deal struck after the January
2005 elections in which the Prime Minister,s party will not
control any ministries will remain in effect. Haitham, a
confidante of SCIRI leader Abdel Aziz al-Hakim, also
assured PolOff that ministries would be held by Sunni Arabs
as well as Shia and Kurds.

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Sadrist Concerns
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4. (C) Hassan al Rubaie, head of the Sadrist list in the
UIC 555 coalition, told Pol/FSN in a December 15 phone
interview that UIC 555 received many votes in Baghdad and
southern Iraq. &This will prove that UIC 555 is the
strongest party in Iraq.8 He also expressed concerns about
possible fraud and the lack of ballot boxes in some areas
such as Anbar province (Ref A).

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Fadhila Confident
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5. (C) Prominent Fadhila Party member Mohammed Ismael told
Pol/FSN in a December 15 phone interview that, after
visiting polling centers in Al Amarah, he felt the election
went well. He felt UIC 555 performed very well in the Shia
heartland, especially in Nasiriyah, Basrah, Al Kut, and
Sadr City. He pointed to the Al Jazeera broadcast which
sparked protests on December 14 (Ref B) as having helped
UIC 555 win many sympathy votes among the Shia. He
predicts that UIC 555 will win at least 115 seats in the
National Assembly.


6. (C) COMMENT: These UIC 555 members are all confident
that their party will win the largest number of seats in
the National Assembly. It remains to be seen to what
extent they will share power - these Shia Islamists are
still not sure how well they scored. Moreover, they talked
a good game about bringing in Sunni Arabs and Kurds, but
they were tough in screening Sunni Arabs into the
transitional government cabinet in the spring of 2005.
That said, our first soundings from among the Islamist
ranks at least carry the right tone. END COMMENT.
KHALILZAD