PRESIDENT TALABANI ON ELECTIONS, CITIZENSHIP LAW

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004776 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/28/2015 TAGS: PGOV PNAT PHUM CPAS IZ SUBJECT: PRESIDENT TALABANI ON ELECTIONS, CITIZENSHIP LAW Classified By: AMBASSADOR ZALMAY KHALILZAD FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) In a November 27 meeting, President Talabani outlined to the Ambassador his predictions for the December election results: 90-110 seats for the Shia list; 50-60 seats for the Kurds; 45-50 seats for the Sunni Arabs; 25-35 seats for former PM Ayad Allawi's coalition; and 5-10 for Deputy PM Chalabi's group. Of the Sunni Arab seats, Talabani predicted the majority would be won by List 618, with Saleh Mutlaq's Iraqi Front for National Dialogue relegated to 5 seats at most. ¶2. (C) In response to the Ambassador's query on election preparations, Talabani stated that the propaganda and publicity machinery was active and working well. However, Talabani deprecated Allawi's statements to the British press that the current state of human rights in Iraq "was worse now than under Saddam." (Note: Talabani's aide Kamiran Karadaghi repeatedly tried to correct Talabani to reflect more accurately Allawi's statement that the current human rights situation in Iraq is as bad as it ever was under Saddam. End Note.) Talabani became very animated, wondering how Allawi could make comparisons between the freedoms Iraqis enjoy now and the brutal mass graves of Saddam Hussein. ¶3. (C) The Ambassador then brought up the topic of citizenship rights, noting that the Transitional National Assembly (TNA) had passed a bill that specifically excluded Iraqi Jews from reclaiming their Iraqi citizenship. The Ambassador characterized the move as unnecessary and unwise, pointing out its incompatibility with the tenets of the new Iraqi Constitution. Talabani vowed to reject the bill and later during the meeting he instructed Karadaghi to find the bill immediately and reject it. ¶4. (C) Finally, the Ambassador raised the issue of the four Western citizens who recently had been kidnapped from their car after meeting with the Muslim Ulema Council. Talabani expressed his concern and urged the Ambassador to speak with the Ulema Council for their assistance. KHALILZAD