IRAQI ELECTIONS: CANDIDATE LIST DEADLINE LOOMS;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004432

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/27/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQI ELECTIONS: CANDIDATE LIST DEADLINE LOOMS;
IECI SAYS WILL HOLD FIRM

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for
reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. One day before the Candidate List
deadline, the IECI had only received 40 - 50 political
entity candidate lists containing a little over 600
potential candidates. Although this amalgamation of
names is enough to conduct the December 15 elections
in 15 of the 18 governorates, the major political
parties have yet to submit their lists. Despite this
low showing, IECI Commissioners have stressed that
they intend to firmly enforce the October 28 deadline.
Political parties tonight are busy working on their
coalitions and election slates. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) On October 26, PolOff met with IECI Chairman
Izaddin Al-Mohammdy, Commissioner Abdul Hussein Al-
Hindawi, and Commissioner Farid Ayar separately.
During these meetings, the Commissioners each strongly
stated their commitment to holding firm to the October
28 deadline for party coalitions and candidate lists.
Chairman Al-Mohammdy was especially adamant, noting
that the IECI had already given parties an extension
to the original deadline and that any additional
extension could delay the December 15 elections.
Later in the day, Dr. Farid Ayer told PolOff that
there was little wiggle room, if any, to the October
28 date. He added with flourish that if not enough
parties handed their candidate submissions in on time,
the December 15 elections would be postponed.
(Comment: as we have reported, we do not believe the
TAL allows for a postponement. End Comment.)


3. (C) Al-Mohammday explained to PolOff that time
constraints on ballot printing dictated that the IECI
know on October 28 or 29, which coalitions and parties
would run in which governorates. He stressed that the
candidate lists submission went hand in hand with
political entities declaring in which governorate they
would run. Part of the reason for candidate lists, he
said, would be to know which parties to print on the
Anbar ballot, the Basrah ballot, and so on. He
stressed that many political entities would only run
in some of the governorates and not all.


4. (C) On October 26, Deputy Chief Electoral Officer
Harith Hassan, gave Pol FSN a preliminary listing of
the numbers of candidates registered for each
governorate. According to that listing, 15
governorates have sufficient candidates to hold an
election. No candidate lists have been submitted for
Anbar, and insufficient candidates have been submitted
in Baghdad, and Nineweh.

--Anbar; 8 seats, 0 candidates
--Basrah; 17 seats, 40 candidates
--Erbil; 13 seats, 19 candidates
--Qadissiya; 8 seats, 65 candidates
--Baghdad; 59 seats, 50 candidates
--Nineweh; 19 seats, 11 candidates
--Karbala; 6 seats, 6 candidates
--Kirkuk/Tameem; 9 seats, 18 candidates
--Diyala; 10 seats, 12 candidates
--Wassit; 8 seats, 38 candidates
--Theqar; 12 Seats, 70 candidates
--Sulaymania; 14 seats, 31 candidates
--Babil; 11 seats, 102 candidates
--Dohuk; 7 seats, 20 candidates,
--Najaf; 8 seats, 41 candidates
--Salahadeen; 8 seats, 13 candidates
--Muthana; 5 seats, 37 candidates
--Misan; 7 seats, 60 candidates



5. (C) Of the "small player" entities that have
submitted candidate lists to date, only a handful have
opted to run in multiple provinces. The Iraqi
Communist Party currently is leading in its scope with
candidate lists in 12 governorates. The major Shia,
Sunni, and Kurdish parties, such as the SCIRI, DAWA,
Al-SADR, PUK, KDP, and IIP, have yet to hand in their
coalition and candidate lists. Various contacts told
us on October 27 that they were busy finalizing lists.


6. (C) Al-Mohammday told PolOff that he and other
members of the IECI have continued to conduct outreach
to emphasize the firmness of the deadline. A press
release was issued on October 24 as well as on October
27 affirming this exact message. Additionally, Al-
Mohammady said, the IECI has been conversing and
promulgating this theme one-on-one with various
politicians.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) While the Commissioners have affirmed that they
will uphold the October 28 deadline, lack of big name
party candidate lists could put pressure on the IECI
to be flexible. However, the IECI will most likely by
the deadline's time have sufficient candidates to hold
the election. This being Iraq, with the lottery to
determine party/coalition order on the ballots set for
November 1, some parties may attempt to test the limit
by delaying their slate registrations until the last
possible moment.


Satterfield