Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BAGHDAD4376
2005-10-24 12:23:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

ALLAWI AIMING FOR SIZE OVER SUBSTANCE IN

Tags:  PGOV KDEM IZ 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004376 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: ALLAWI AIMING FOR SIZE OVER SUBSTANCE IN
COALITION NEGOTIATIONS

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford
Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004376

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: ALLAWI AIMING FOR SIZE OVER SUBSTANCE IN
COALITION NEGOTIATIONS

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford
Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT: With coalition
negotiations entering their final four days, former
Prime Minister Allawi appears to have opted for size
over substance in forming his slate. He has pulled
together a moderate -- but not clearly liberal --
coalition including Ghazi al-Yawar's party, the Iraqi
Communist Party, and several smaller Islamist,
nationalist, and minority groups. He appears to have
failed to convince major Sunni Arab groups to join his
coalition or to persuade major Shia Islamist leaders
to break with theirs. He has also, perhaps
inevitably, alienated some liberal politicians who
insisted on a tighter coalition with a clearer, shared
vision.


2. (C) SUMMARY AND COMMENT CONTINUED: The breadth of
Allawi's coalition appears to have scared the Shia
Islamists into feverish and continuing negotiations to
preserve the United Iraqi Alliance. Allawi is clearly
counting on amassing strength in numbers and must be
hoping that Grand Ayatollah SISTANI abstains from
specific party endorsements in this vote. He is also
banking that promises of post-election support from
Sunni Arab politicians will propel him to the prime
ministership even if his is not the largest bloc in
the next parliament. Much of the hurried negotiating
is not finished, and we can expect more political
alliance twists and turns before the October 28
election list filing deadline. END SUMMARY AND
COMMENT.

--------------
A Polyglot Coalition
--------------


3. (C) Wael Abd al-Latif, a former judge and TNA
member, told PolOff October 24 that Allawi has made
major strides in pulling together a diverse coalition
that includes Shia, Sunni Arab, Islamists, minorities,
and nationalists. Latif insisted that Allawi was
still working to convince the Sunni Arab Iraqi Islamic
Party and Adnan al-Duleimi's "Iraqi Conference" to
join the fold. Top Allawi confidante and TNA member
Rasim al-Awadi told PolOff October 24 that
negotiations are ongoing, but the slate currently
includes the following key groups and leaders:

-- Iraqi National Accord (Wifaq)
-- Iraqi Communist Party
-- Vice President Ghazi al-Yawar's Iraqiyoon list
-- Arab Socialist Movement leader Abd al-Ilah Nasrawi

-- Yunadam Kanna's Assyrian Democratic Front
-- Sabean Mandaean leaders
-- Da'wa Islamic Movement (a splinter of the Da'wa
Party in Basra)
-- TNA Speaker Hachim al-Hasani
-- Basra religious leader Shaykh Khayrallah al-Basri


4. (C) Allawi's success has produced a counter-
reaction from the Shia Islamist bloc, Latif
acknowledged. The Islamists appear determined to
recreate the United Iraqi Alliance in the face of
Allawi's coalition, he said. Latif predicted that the
Shia Islamists would succeed in that effort despite
Allawi's efforts to draw away the Fadila (Islamic
Virtue) Party. He insisted, however, that even Grand
Ayatollah SISTANI's backing would not offer the boost
in this election that it did in the last one.

--------------
Sunni Arab Bloc Aligned
--------------


5. (C) Leading Sunni Arab parties appear aligned in a
coalition to be entitled the "National Consensus
Front." The coalition includes the Iraqi Islamic
Party, National Dialogue Council, and Adnan Duleimi's
Conference of the Iraqi People, previously known as
the Sunni Conference. National Dialogue Council
Secretary General Abd al-Nasser al-Janabi told PolOff

SIPDIS
October 23 that Salah Mutlak had not really broken
with the Dialogue Council despite his public
announcements to the contrary.

--------------
One Sunni Leaders Stays Solo
--------------


6. (C) Liberation and Reconciliation Bloc Leader
Mish'an Jaburi, who won a single TNA seat in the
January elections, told PolOff October 23 that he
would run independently in the coming elections. He
said he had rejected entreaties from the Iraqi Islamic
Party to join the larger Sunni coalition because he
did not consider the grouping liberal enough. He also
said he rejected offers from Ayad Allawi because of
political differences that he would not specify.
Jaburi said he had assured Allawi that he would
support him in the next parliament. Jaburi briefly
served as governor of Mosul in 2003 but is a native of
Salah al-Din. He said he plans to run lists in Salah
al-Din, Ninewa, Basra, Anbar, and Kirkuk.

--------------
A Smaller Liberal Slate In the Works
--------------

7. (C) Several smaller liberal, democratic figures
appear to have given up on joining the Allawi
coalition and are discussing a separate slate.
National Democratic Party leader Abid Faisal al-
Sahlani, who won a single seat in the January
elections, told PolOff October 23 that Allawi had
essentially rebuffed his efforts to unite. Sahlani
said he had sought out a partnership with Allawi that
would draw together exclusively liberal, democratic
figures. Instead, he lamented, Allawi had worked to
bring together an amalgam of Islamists, nationalists,
and communists who are not united by any single
vision. Sahlani is forming a competing group with
what he described as an alliance of alienated and
uncompromising liberals. He said that group would
include Baghdad leaders included Provincial Council
chairman Mazin Makiya, Karada District Council
Chairman Muhammad Rubai'e, former Shia General Tawfiq
al-Yasiri, and moderate cleric Ayad Jamal al-Din.


Satterfield