AT LATE HOUR, UNITED SHIA LIST STILL IN FLUX

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004343 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2015 TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ SUBJECT: AT LATE HOUR, UNITED SHIA LIST STILL IN FLUX Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford, for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Shia Islamists from the United Iraqi Alliance have still not settled on an electoral alliance as the clock ticks down on the coalition registration deadline. The last-minute IECI decision to extend that deadline to 28 October will provide more room for the Shia to narrow differences and attempt to reach a joint list but there are indications that the grand coalition that dominated the Transitional National Assembly (TNA) may split. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) Leading SCIRI official Humam al-Hammudi is leading efforts to negotiate an acceptable level of representation for each Shia Islamist group on a joint list, but he has not yet closed a deal. Leading Sadrist and TNA member Baha al-Araji told Poloff October 19 that the process will crystallize soon. He said there was a "high possibility" that Muqtada al- Sadr supporters would ally under a competing, independent list. Fadila Party leader Nadim al-Jabiri told PolFSN October 19 that his group has still not made a final decision on its electoral alliances. Jabiri all but ruled out participation in Allawi's coalition and complained that the Allawi conference took place too late in the game to produce productive negotiations. ¶3. (C) Deputy Fadila leader Muhammad Ismael predicted to PolFSN on October 20 that the Sadrists will break with the coalition, possibly hand-in-hand with the Da'wa Party. In response, he expected SCIRI to help lead a coalition that includes most of the groups in the former coalition while drawing in some new independent and Sunni leaders. Ismael said that Fadila is still considering running solo. ¶4. (C) As if to confirm Ismael's rumor of a broader but split Shia coalition, non-Islamist Shia leader Najib al-Salihi, leader of the hitherto unsuccessful Free Officers and Civilians Movement, told Poloff October 19 that he has been invited to join the Shia coalition. Salihi said Shia leaders claim privately that they intend this time to keep secular leaders, not clerics, at the forefront on the candidate lists. Shabak leader and current TNA member Haneen Qeddo told Poloff on October 20 that he saw little alternative but to remain in the Shia coalition in the coming elections, an indication that even in Mosul he needs the a stronger partner to help him compete with the Kurdish alliance. Qeddo said the Shia coalition has still not come together and may yet fail to congeal in time for the registration date. ¶5. (C) Comment: The Shia Islamists are working to unite ranks, but appear fractured in three camps led respectively by SCIRI, Fadila, and the Sadrists. They may seek a middle road, forming one coalition list with representatives from all sides alongside independent lists representing each party. Satterfield