ANBAR POLITICS: NOBODY LIKES ANYBODY VERY MUCH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004289 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2015 TAGS: PGOV PTER KDEM IZ SUBJECT: ANBAR POLITICS: NOBODY LIKES ANYBODY VERY MUCH REF: BAGHDAD 4239 Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT FORD, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D). ¶1. (C) Summary. This is a SET Ramadi Cable. Anbar Sunni Arab politicos may feel besieged with worries about Shia, Iranians, terrorists, Iraqi Security Forces and the American military, but they are hardly circling the wagons. The lead political figure in Anbar, in terms of administrative prowess and political savvy, is technocrat Governor Mamoon Sami Latif al Rasheed (albu Alwan tribe). He is, however, bitterly criticized by even apparently close political allies such as the deputy governor, Talib Ibraheem Someer, and his own legal counsel and cousin, Haji Arif al Alwan. Provincial Police Chief Brigadier General Shaqr Mohammed Saleh (al Dulaym) has more reason to attack the governor, given that Mamoon seeks Shaqr's removal for corruption. Local politics and jockeying for the next election in December resemble a nest of vipers. End Summary. ¶2. (C) PolOff and military colleagues pulsed five leading Anbari politicians in the week leading up to the constitutional referendum. Police Chief Shaqr in his battle with the governor regarding the payment of policemen's salaries (reftel) accused the governor of being a member of the IIP. He elaborated on the indictment, citing Anbaris' natural distrust of political parties, given their experience with the Ba'ath. He claimed Mamoon was pressuring his police commanders to join the Islamic party. Mamoon, however, declared in an October 13 New York Times report (in the presence of PolOff) that he was not affiliated with any political party. Later the same day in a telcon, Mamoon described his own group (refusing to label it a party) as technocrats loosely aligned with the IIP for the January 30 election. ¶3. (C) Provincial Council Chairman Khudair Abdel Jabar Abbas also a self-described member of the educated class, is more forthcoming about his membership in the IIP, which garnered a meager 2800 votes in the January 30 election - the highest total for any group in Anbar in that controversial election. He noted, "The people consider us the IIP". He named the party's Anbar chief as Abdul al Salam, whom Khudair claimed had been unable to connect with IIP headquarters after the momentous announcement regarding the changes in the constitution. Of the five Anbar politicians PolOff has met, Khudair, the proud father of seven, was the only one to excuse himself from meetings to pray. He appears to have a good, if subordinate, working relationship with Mamoon and boasted of holding 21 Provincial Council meetings since the body's inception. ¶4. (C) Deputy Governor Talib denigrated both political parties ("not representative of the people of Anbar") and tribal leaders ("who have lost their constituencies"). He criticized the governor (in the presence of Haji Arif, Legal Advisor to Mamoon) for failing to understand his authorities vis-a-vis the Provincial Police Chief. Mamoon's cousin and advisor, Lawyer Arif, chimed in that the governor's influence was limited : "He can only travel between his homes and the governorate center." Talib accused Shaqr, meanwhile, of bribing officials in Baghdad, allegedly even the Minister of Interior. The deputy governor claimed he did not represent "any one party, but the people of Anbar". He tucked a copy of the Iraqi National Dialogue Council (INDC) party platform into the Poloff's notebook as he left. ¶5. (C) Police Chief Shaqr praised the INDC's leader, Ramadi native Shaykh Khalif Al-Uyan for his military experience. A few of the Anbar police commanders agreed Al-Uyan was "popular". Shaqr's old boss, former Anbar Governor Fassal al Ghaoud, did not get off so lightly. The Police Chief described al Ghaoud as "tired" and lacking any support in Anbar. (Note. Al Ghaoud's party newspaper, "Solidarity" is one of the few publications found on Ramadi streets, but the former governor has been scarce in the troubled province. End Note.) Mamoon decried al Ghaoud as not even the most senior representative of his Hit-based, Albu Nimr tribe. Shaqr seemed to approve of former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi, but found it difficult to imagine Allawi forming a coalition with the IIP. ¶6. (C) Comment: Organized and proactive political parties, like the Diyala IIP, do not seem to have materialized in Anbar. With the October 21 election commission deadline for coalition and candidate registration fast approaching, local politicians will need to finalize their coalitions and appeal to their (if any) constituents quickly. There appear to be no alliances among the leading local figures, another attestation of the divisive and fractured nature of Sunni Arab politics. The voter turnout in Ramadi and points west was very low. Focused education and public political forums may spark voter interest in the next elections. End Comment. Khalilzad