ALLAWI ALLY ON FORMER PM'S EFFORT TO BUILD A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004270

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: ALLAWI ALLY ON FORMER PM'S EFFORT TO BUILD A
COALITION FOR DECEMBER'S ELECTION

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for
Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. With the Conference of Centrists and
Moderation underway, Allawi supporter and former
Planning Minister Medhi Hafedh has gathered a myriad
of Sunni, Shia and Kurds that may possibly form
alliances with Ayad Allawi for the December elections.
Hafedh reported that Allawi's political campaign
organization is taking shape, citing a new director,
established working committees and launch of a media
campaign. Although Hafedh expressed doubt that Shia
Islamist parties have organized, he suggests that the
recent corruption scandals naming Allawi allies are
the work of Islamist parties, especially Ahmed
Chalabi, to smear Allawi's reputation before the
elections. End Summary.

Conference of Centrists and Moderation
--------------


2. (SBU) On October 17, Emboffs met with Chairman of
the Iraqi Centre for Development & International
Dialogue and former IIG Minister of Planning Dr. Mehdi
Hafedh. As the chief planner of Allawi's Conference
of Centrists and Moderation, Hafedh said he expects
700-800 participants to attend an October 17
conference in Baghdad. He labeled the conference the
largest gathering of non-sectarian liberal democrats
who will participate in the December 15 elections.


3. (SBU) Hafedh said the conference planning
committee worked hard to recruit a balanced list of
speakers. In addition to Ayad Allawi, the 14
politicians scheduled are:

Nadeem al-Jabiri, Head of Fadeela Party
Hachem al-Hassani, TNA Speaker of the House (Sunni
Independent)
Hossain al-Adili, Head of Democratic Islamic Trends
Hamid Moussa, Head of the Iraqi Communist Party
Shaikh Ghazi Ajeel al-Yawar, Tribal Sunni Independent
Adnan al-Pachachi, Independent Democrats Party
Wijdan, Iraqi National Accord
Mahmud Ali Othman, Kurdistan National Struggle
Organization
Abdulillah an-Nasrawi, Arab Socialist Movement
Nasir al-Chaderchi, National Democratic Party
Rassim al-Awadi Iraqi National Accord
Izzet Shahbandar, Islamic Democratic Trend
Safia al-Suheil
Nasir al-Aani, Iraqi Islamic Party (Sunni)

Coalition building
--------------


4. (C) Hafedh told Poloffs that even though a myriad
of Sunni, Shia, Kurdish political parties have
accepted conference invitations, there were no
guarantees these parties would commit to joining
Allawi's coalition now. He added that the conference
was only the first step in forming alliances. Hafedh
claimed that Masoud Barzani expressed interest in
helping Allawi's coalition. Hafedh felt confident
that there was enough time for Allawi to negotiate
with prospective parties and secure commitments by the
IECI coalition registration deadline of October 21st.

Allawi's campaign already in full swing
--------------


5. (C) By incorporating Sunni, Kurdish and Shia
political figures, Allawi could bridge regional gaps,
Hafedh claimed. He admitted that this was one of the
flaws of Allawi's last campaign. Hadfedh said that
the Allawi camp also anticipates the December election
campaign will be 18 separate elections in 18
governorates and that the Allawi list composition will
vary substantially in each governorate.


6. (C) Hafedh also stated that Allawi's group has
already formed its campaign committees. Hafedh
reported that Allawi is implementing part of the media
campaign by reaching out to friendly Arab governments
and cited Allawi's upcoming visit to Turkey.


7. (C) Hafedh admitted to Poloffs that Allawi's team
plans to be ready to register by October 21st IECI
deadline. Hadfedh said that he expects that the Shia
Islamists will not be ready to form a unified list
again by October 21. Dawa and Moqtada al-Sadr likely
will form an alliance, he speculated, but they may not
make the October 21 deadline. He said he also expects
Ayatollah al-SISTANI would not endorse any one list,
making it more difficult for Shia to form alliances.

Smear Campaign already in play
--------------


8. (C) When asked about recent arrest warrants issued
for ministers who worked for Allawi, Hafedh said this
was a sure sign of political manipulation by both
Islamists, and especially Ahmed Chalabi, to stain
Allawi's campaign. He cited the lack of transparency
with the investigation and suggested that an
accounting company like KPMG Peat Marwick conduct a
formal audit of the alleged financial corruption.
Hafedh insisted that TNA member and head of SCIRI's
Badr Organization, Abdel Hadi al-Amari, is behind the
campaign to slap Allawi ex-ministers with corruption
charges.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) We will report further on the Allawi
coalition building effort as we gather more
information. We caution that the coalition has not
solidified much apart from the Communists signing up.
On the positive side, NDI's Iraq director, who helped
Allawi reach out to other parties during the summer,
told us October 17 that Allawi's campaign organization
is starting to take shape. He said it has far to go,
but it is well ahead of where it was going into the
January 2005 election.
Khalilzad