REFERENDUM UPDATE 2 - FREE AND FAIR AND LOTS OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004240

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2015
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM PINR IZ
SUBJECT: REFERENDUM UPDATE 2 - FREE AND FAIR AND LOTS OF
SUNNI ARABS VOTING


Classified By: POLCOUNS ROBERT S. FORD FOR REASONS 1.4 (B)
AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. All reporting indicates that the October
15 referendum was generally free and fair. There were some
allegations of irregularities at sites around the country,
especially in Ninewa. There were isolated incidents of
violence but these did not much affect the voting.
Although there were more polling stations than in the
January elections, overall voter turnout was lighter than
expected -- particularly in the South. Voter turnout in
strife-ridden Anbar province was relatively low compared to
other provinces, but far above the turnout in January.
Notably, the election commission operated 144 polling
centers there compared to roughly 30 in January. Likewise,
in Ninewah, where only 17 percent of voters turned out in
January, this time voter turnout appears to have reached
the 65 percent plus range. According to election
officials, preliminary results are expected in the next two
days, with final results likely in five to seven days. END
SUMMARY.

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REFERENDUM APPEARS TO BE FREE AND FAIR -- BUT SOME PROBLEMS
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2. (U) As polls close on the historic vote for Iraq's draft
constitution, all reporting indicates that, overall, it was
a free and fair process. While there were some allegations
of irregularities, particularly in Ninewa Province, voters,
observers, and government officials generally reported that
the majority of polling stations opened, ballots and ballot
boxes were available, and there were far fewer incidents of
violence than expected.


3. (C) The reported incidents of violence included: several
voters assassinated in Baghdad's Ghazaliyah neighborhood; a
bomb in Baquba; and a hostage incident in Ramadi. Security
for the elections was effective and voters had unimpeded
access to polling stations. There were more polling
stations than in the January elections, especially in
Ninewa and Anbar. Citizens appeared to have been generally
free to vote without fear of intimidation. The Iraqi
Electoral Information Network (an NGO group supported with
training from the National Democratic Institute) reported
that women played a large role in the voting. During
Embassy and REO/SET site visits around the country, women
appeared to represent the majority of voters except in
Fallujah.

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SUNNIS AND KURDS -- GOOD SHOWING; SHI'A TURNOUT LIGHTER?
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4. (C) Preliminary reports suggest that voter turnout,
while very good, was smaller than in the January elections,
especially in the South. Estimates have ranged from 33
percent in some of the Shi'a provinces to 66 percent in
provinces such as Kurdish Sulamaniyah. Initial estimates
for turnout in Ninewah suggested turnout of 65 percent or
more, according to the Independent Election Commission of
Iraq (IECI). Ninewah, expected to be one of the key
provinces in the referendum, saw some problems related with
polling centers opening, voter intimidation, and vote
fraud. Irregularities included allegations of Peshmerga
troops voting in the area, Kurds being bussed into the
region to vote, and Peshmerga intimidation of Sunni voters.
In what we judge to the other key province, Salah ad-Din,
voter turnout also appeared to be heavy - over 65 percent,
according to IECI. Our initial take is that these problems
are much less than they were in January, but our
information is not complete. Polling sites in Kirkuk,
where the constitution is expected to pass, were reportedly
orderly. However, there was much voter discontent over the
last minute amendments to the draft constitution, according
to PolFSN there.


5. (C) Voter turnout in the Khalis District of Diyala was
reportedly so high that officials opened two new polling
stations. There were contradictory reports regarding the
number of open polling centers in Al Anbar Province, but
voting in Fallujah, where the result is likely to be an
overwhelming "no," appeared to be heavy (initial estimates
suggest the number could top 100,000, according to our
Poloff there). However, voter turnout in Ramadi and
western Anbar was reportedly light (initial estimates near
10,000, according to Ramadi Poloff).

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NEXT STEPS
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6. (C) Polls close at 1700 local (all voters in line at
1700 will be allowed to cast their votes). The overall
consensus of observers is that referendum day went
exceedingly well. However, how the process continues to
play out in the tallying phase will be an indicator of how
free and fair the referendum really was. IECI indicates
that preliminary results are expected within the next two
days, with final tallies expected in five to seven days.
Polling stations will conduct in situ counts and
tabulations of the ballots, after which the voting
materials will be sealed, collected, and eventually
transported to the IECI Tally Center in Baghdad.
Khalilzad