IRAQI REFERENDUM UPDATE: PREPARATIONS MOVING AHEAD

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 004225 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2015 TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KDEM IZ SUBJECT: IRAQI REFERENDUM UPDATE: PREPARATIONS MOVING AHEAD SMOOTHLY. REF: A. (A) MOSUL 0149 ¶B. (B) MOSUL 156 ¶C. (C) BAGHDAD 4122 ¶D. (D) BAGHDAD 3868 ¶E. (E) BAGHDAD 3795 Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY. IECI reports that referendum planning logistics and security have proceeded as planned with only minor problems, including in provinces with significant Sunni Arab populations. Preparations have moved forward far more smartly than they did in advance of the January 2005 elections. Ahead of referendum day, detainee voting took place on October 13 at Abu Gharib and Camp Bucca by an IECI mobile team. IECI also expressed flexibility regarding last- minute changes to accommodate voters who are displaced by military activities in Anbar province. Unofficial figures show that over 170,000 domestic and international observers and monitors have registered with the IECI in Baghdad and through their governorate offices. Due largely to printing and distribution problems, UNAMI reports that approximately only 3.8 million of the intended 5 million draft constitutions were distributed. Remaining concerns include post- voting fraud and the formal complaint procedures. END SUMMARY. -------------- -- LOGISTICS RUNNING SMOOTHLY, ESPECIALLY IN ANBAR -------------- -- ¶2. (C) UN/IFES Coordinator David Avery told PolOff on October 13 that all logistics and security preparations were proceeding better than expected. He emphasized that while all materials had already arrived at the IECI warehouses in each governorate, these same materials were now being sent to the IECI District Electoral Offices (DEO) for distribution to the estimated 6,200 polling centers throughout Iraq. Avery highlighted that not a single shipment or conveyance had been lost, and all materials have been accounted for. He also acknowledged that the IECI is working closely with Coalition Forces to ensure, to the maximum extent possible, that provinces with significant Sunni Arab populations are able to vote. Avery agreed with PolOff that special attention was needed with pre, during, and post referendum activities to avoid repeating the voting problems that occurred in Ninawa during the January 30 elections. ¶3. (C) Avery reported that approximately 1,350 poll workers had already been moved to the Anbar province. He said that the IECI has plans for last-minute training in the event they lose staff prior to referendum day. Avery also stated that unlike during the last election, the IECI has not had big staffing problems for the polling centers in the high-risk areas. He explained that over 466,000 Iraqis applied for polling staff positions, with 160,000 finally selected through a blind lottery. Avery said that the lottery was used in order to demonstrate transparency in the process and to allow for wide distribution of Sunni Arab, Shi'a, and Kurdish applicants. Each applicant was identified as a number until contacted on the results of the lottery. -------------- DETAINEE VOTING AT ABU GHARAIB AND CAMP BUCCA -------------- ¶4. (C) As a result of recent IECI regulations, mobile IECI teams conducted detainee voting at Abu Gharib and Camp Bucca detention centers on October 13, two days ahead of the referendum. Both Avery and UN/EAD Carina Perelli confirmed that the voting teams, along with domestic observers, were transported to the centers on October 12 in order to conduct the voting on time. They estimated that approximately 10,000 detainees would be eligible to vote. The regulations also allow for voting in certain designated MOI, MOJ, and MOD facilities of larger than 100 voters. Avery confirmed that mobile teams were also sent to several hospitals, but he did not have final details on the total numbers involved for all mobile voting. ¶5. (C) Perelli stated that the IECI Board of Commissioners have considered options in order to provide voting opportunities to displaced voters due to recent anti-insurgent operations in western Iraq. She stated that the IECI would show the maximum flexibility possible given the current circumstances. Similar to during the January 30 elections, she confirmed that the IECI will likely grant special same-day registration privileges for displaced voters in Anbar that would not apply to other provinces. -------------- STATUS OF DISTRIBUTION OF DRAFT CONSTITUTIONS -------------- ¶6. (C) On October 13 the UNAMI Constitution Support Unit (CSU) Head, Nicholas Haysom, told a group of international donors that approximately only 3.8 million of the originally intended 5.0 million copies of the draft constitution were finally distributed. He blamed unreliable printers, lack of on-site quality control, and last-minute distribution problems for the drop in production. In order to make up for lagging production of Kurdish texts, Haysom stated that the CSU successfully completed a contract, at the request of the governors of Sulaymaniyah and Irbil, respectively, to print 300,000 texts at each governorate. He stated that the UN liaison to the KRG reported the texts were printed as planned, with the distribution already started. Haysom also confirmed that 250,000 Turkmen and 125,000 Syriac copies have been printed and distributed. ¶7. (C) Haysom revealed that UNAMI had trouble confirming delivery to the outermost provinces. (This concern matched REO and SET reporting on the lack of available drafts, especially in Kirkuk. Follow-on reports indicated that drafts finally showed up in Kirkuk and were being distributed in accordance to a plan carried out by a committee headed by the mayor of Kirkuk and charged the governor's office.) UNAMI continues to receive reports that drafts are reaching the streets, albeit within days of the referendum. Haysom stated that some NGOs had conducted sweeps of some of the Public Distribution System (PDS) warehouses to ensure that any copies left behind by the PDS agents would be made available to the public. -------------- VOTER REGISTRATION AND REFERENDUM FRAUD -------------- ¶8. (C) Avery agreed on October 13 to revisit preparations for the Ninawa province. In earlier conversations with PolOffs, Perelli expressed concerns about a repeat of the problems linked to the Kurdish peshmerga, including ballot box stuffing, the failure of materials to reach the polling centers, and polling centers that were not opened in minority-dominated areas. She was specifically concerned about access by minority voters, including Assyrian Christians and Shebeks, among others. Avery said he would confer with his security staff to reconfirm preparations for the Ninawa province. (See refs for details on Ninewa.) ¶9. (C) Avery stated that the IECI now has the voter update materials that it confiscated from Kirkuk after the nearly 50 percent increase in voter registration in August. He said that the IECI Board of Commissioners might not have enough time render a decision prior the referendum. However, they still could render a decision that might have an impact on the final vote tally from Kirkuk. ¶10. (C) Avery also told PolOff that a small group of attorneys were recently hired and will conduct preliminary reviews on referendum fraud complaints. This group would work in lieu of a more formal Judicial Board of Appeals that the UN legal advisor to the IECI, Jose Aranaz, had told Poloffs would be formed at a later date. Aranaz reported that they currently have 24 complaints of fraud, a number that he considered to be low. These complaints began to filter in when voting registration re-commenced in August. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶11. (C) Preparations leading up to the referendum have been smooth compared to last January. For example, concerns relating to Anbar staffing no longer appear to be an issue, as polling center staff are safely transported and in location. However, post will continue watch the situation in Anbar as circumstances can quickly change. We also remain concerned about Ninawa. IECI is supposed to have procedures for ensuring secure transport of ballots but the presence of militias is always a risk, including in the Shia heartland and Kurdish areas. The lack of a full- fledged IECI anti-fraud adjudication structure could cause problems later. Post will continue to monitor efforts to establish a Judicial Board of Appeals, especially leading up to the December elections. Khalilzad