JAFARI'S DA'WA PARTY AND SCIRI NOT READY YET FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 004013 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/27/2015 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR IZ SUBJECT: JAFARI'S DA'WA PARTY AND SCIRI NOT READY YET FOR ELECTION ALLIANCE Classified By: Political Counselor Robert S. Ford for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d 1.(C) Da'wa al-Islamiyya senior official Jawad al-Maliki told PolOff on September 27 that he doubts the Shia Coalition 169 List will survive to the next elections. He added that Da'wa would have to form new alliances based on the new election law and anticipated that there would be several different alliances for different districts. He was sure that Da'wa would not score many electoral successes running on its own ticket; he said it would be lucky to win 15 seats. ¶2. (C) Al-Maliki scoffed at the press reports indicating that SCIRI and Da'wa plan to form a secular movement. He added that any partnership with SCIRI would greatly surprise him because Da'wa needs more moderate partners. Da'wa member Ali Muhammed Hussein Ali al-Adeeb told PolOff that there has been no decision on a party platform. He expressed his concern that the party has stalled in its tracks. TNA member Dhiya Muhammad Taqi Abd al-Hussein al- Shakarchi told PolOff on September 27 that without knowing its platform, Da'wa could not genuinely shop for allies. Al-Shakarchi stated that all Islamist parties are perceived as extremist, linked to Iran, and have a penchant for violence in the streets. He warned that Da'wa should not make hasty decisions on forming alliances. All the DAWA members with whom PolOff spoke skirted the viability of Jaafari's candidacy. ¶3. (C) Poloff met separately September 26 with SCIRI leader Humam Hamudi to explore their electoral plans. Hamudi was not yet willing to rule out a Shia coalition in the coming elections. He said that the 169 leadership was holding constant meetings on the subject and no group was entirely satisfied with its representation on the list. He said they had decided to reach a decision within 10 days. Khalilzad