DISSENSION WITHIN SUNNI ARAB HARD-LINE RANKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 003948 SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2015 TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IZ SUBJECT: DISSENSION WITHIN SUNNI ARAB HARD-LINE RANKS Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Sunni Arab Sa'adoon al-Zubaidi, a member of the hard-line, Sunni Arab-dominated Iraqi Council of National Dialogue (ICND) told PolOff September 22 that in the last several days there has been no effort by Sunni Arab representatives to propose specific changes to Kurdish or Shia leaders that would enable the Sunni Arabs to support the draft constitution. Zubaidi said that there has been some debate within the ICND about possibly supporting the constitution. However, he said the majority of the membership currently advocates voting "no" in the October 15 referendum. ¶2. (C) Zubaidi charged that ICND spokesman Saleh Mutlak has undermined Dialogue group in a self-serving effort to enhance his image on the Sunni Arab street. In particular, Zubaidi said Mutlak had discredited the ICND with the announcement that he would gather 5 million signatures on petitions against the constitution. Zubaidi said the real purpose of the effort was to register individuals as members of Mutlak's proposed "National Front". Mutlak expects widespread forgery in the referendum vote, and he wants to use his signatures to reflect what he thinks is the real number of "no" votes. Zubaidi added that he fully expects Mutlak himself to forge signatures on his petitions. ¶3. (C) Poloff said that it was important that internal competition within the Sunni Arab parties not impede engagement in the political process. He said that passage of the new constitution would be in the interests of all Iraqis. ¶4. (C) Comment: While Mutlak is gathering signatures, there are signs elsewhere that members of the Dialog Council still hope to tweak the draft constitution text such that they can support it. Overall, our sense is that the Dialog Council, and Sunni Arab ranks broadly, are unsure of the way forward. That indecision and internal dissension gives us a short-lived opening to try again to secure Kurd-Shia agreement to amend the text slightly in a couple areas in return for wider Sunni Arab support the draft constitution publicly. Khalilzad