SADRISTS LIKELY TO BACK CONSTITUTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 003929

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2015
TAGS: PGOV PINR IZ
SUBJECT: SADRISTS LIKELY TO BACK CONSTITUTION

REF: (A) BAGHDAD 3898 (B) BAGHDAD 3887

Classified By: POLITICAL COUNSELOR ROBERT FORD FOR REASONS
1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. In conversations earlier this week,
Sadrists and affiliates told PolOff that Muqtada al-Sadr
will tell his people to vote in favor of the constitution
in the October 15 referendum. They dismissed reports that
Sadr is opposed to the constitution as rumors spread by
Sadr's opponents. Throughout the conversations, PolOff
stressed that Sadr should pursue his goals through the
political process and not through violence. END SUMMARY.

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Sadr Will Support Constitution, Some Say
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2. (C) PolOff met with Sadrist TNA members Nassar Zgair
Darbi al Ruba'i (September 18) and Kareem al Bukhati
(September 19),as well as with Sayed Emad Kelanter, who
runs a religious school in Najaf and is related by marriage
to both Muqtada al Sadr and Grand Ayatollah SISTANI
(September 21). They all told PolOff that Muqtada al-Sadr
supports the constitution and will tell his followers to
vote in favor of it in the referendum to be held October

15. Nassar al Ruba'i and Kareem al Bukhati both said that
Sadr plans to make a public announcement to his followers
after copies of the constitution have been distributed to
the Iraqi people. They also reported that Sadr is not
opposed to federalism, as conventional wisdom holds. All
three reported that Sadr realizes that no constitution will
fully satisfy any group. According to them, Sadr views the
constitution as "good for the Shia".


3. (C) During these conversations, PolOff stressed that
Sadr should pursue his objectives through the democratic
political process and not through violence. The USG wants
the Iraqi Government to maintain law and order in Iraq.
The deployment of militias is not acceptable and will cause
problems with Coalition Forces, he cautioned.

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A Dissenting View in Public
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4. (C) By contrast, Dr. Jawad Sumaysim, brother of top Sadr
aide Ali Sumaisym, was quoted September 19 by the Iraqi
newspaper Al Kasid as saying that when Sadr called for his
followers to register for the upcoming elections, he was
not necessarily telling them to vote in favor of the
constitution. Sumaisym added that Sadr still has some
reservations about certain provisions in the constitution,
especially federalism.


5. (C) COMMENT: We have no firsthand knowledge of how
Muqtada thinks and, as noted in reftel, he remains a key
wild card in the upcoming referendum. Our Shia contacts
claim that Sadr would never cross Ayatollah SISTANI should
the latter publicly support the draft constitution (he has
not done so yet). Sadr has avoided making common cause
with the emerging Sunni Arab campaign to defeat the draft
constitution, however (ref b). The aforementioned
conversations were held with Sadrists who have a vested
interest in continued engagement in the political process.
They also are comparative moderates among Muqtada's
followers. Nonetheless, their similar comments indicate
that at least some in Muqtada's movement are counting on
their leader supporting the constitution. We suspect
Sumaysim's comments may have aimed at boosting Sadr's
electoral standing among Sunni Arabs, as the Sadrists eye
the December elections. END COMMENT.

Khalilzad