TWO SUNNI ARAB INDEPENDENTS DISCOUNT CHANCES FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003926

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: TWO SUNNI ARAB INDEPENDENTS DISCOUNT CHANCES FOR
SUNNI ARAB SUPPORT FOR CONSTITUTION

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford for reasons
1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Two relative Sunni Arab political
independents told us earlier this week that Sunni Arabs
likey will vote in force against the draft constitution on
October 15. Hatem al-Mukhlis, from Salah ad-Din province,
told us that it would be better for the Sunni Arabs to help
draft a new constitution after the December 2005 elections.
Shaykh Fawaz Jarba from Ninewa in northwest Iraq told us
that few people in his region know much about the draft.
Both men perceived that many view the draft as helping the
Kurds and threatening Iraq's national unity, and thus would
not gain much support. Poloffs cautioned that the draft is
the best way to maintain Iraq's national unity, but clearly
convincing Sunni Arabs to support the constitution on
October 15 is not going to be easy. End Summary.

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View from Tikrit: Worry about National Unity
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2. (C) Hatem al-Mukhlis, Editor in Chief of Al Watan
newspaper and political hopeful, told PolOff September 20
that the constitution referendum should be postponed until
after the December election to ensure better Sunni Arab
representation in the drafting process. Mukhlis repeated
warnings of the breakup of Iraq as Kurdish and Shia
communities form their own regions. Mukhlis also claimed
there is a concerted, Iranian effort to destabilize Iraq.


3. (C) Mukhlis recalled a meeting he attended in 2004 at
which Kurdish officials changed the wording on their table
setting tag from "Iraq" to "Kurdistan." He said the
frequency of such separatist gestures has increased.
Despite assurances by PolOff to the contrary, he insisted
the current constitution will allow Kurdistan to open an
embassy in Washington "within a few years."


4. (C) Mukhlis predicted that the constitution will pass
in the referendum despite heavy Sunni Arab opposition.
Mukhlis candidly revealed that many Sunni Arabs will vote
against the constitution only to spite the perceived US
pressure to pass it. He felt the new constitution would not
improve the daily situation for any Iraqis.

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More Splits Among Sunni Political Groups ?
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5. (C) Mukhlis believes the main Sunni Arab political
parties-- especially the Iraqi Council for National
Dialogue (ICND)-- would continue to fracture along
religious lines and form new factions of Islamic, secular,
independent, and tribal groups. He said the September 20
call by ICND's Saleh Mutlak during the Hawija Conference to
form a "National Front" stemmed from divisions within the
Dialogue group. (Comment: while Mutlak has sought to line
up support to overturn the draft constitution, other
members of the Dialog group have pondered whether last-
minute changes to the draft might be possible. However, as
we have reported, the Sunni Arabs have not been able to
agree on a common position and no one has been willing
publicly to act independently. End Comment.)

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How to Get Sunni Arabs into Iraqi Mainstream
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6. (C) The solution offered by Mukhlis to decrease
current instability would be to hire more Sunni Arabs into
the Iraqi Police and Iraqi Army. PolOff outlined USG
efforts to ensure Sunni Arab inclusion in democratic Iraq,
but added that but there has been insufficient response
from Sunni Arab leaders. Mukhlis countered that many do
apply, but Shia leaders in the IP and IA reject Arab Sunni
applicants.

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A View from rural Ninewa
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7. (C) Separately, National Assembly member Shaykh Fawaz
Jarba from the Shammar tribal region west of Mosul told
PolCouns September 20 that he anticipated most of the Sunni
Arabs in his region would vote against the draft
constitution on October 15. He knew of no local leader
among the Sunni Arabs making a strong case for the draft.
(He hastened to add that the National Dialog Council and
Saleh Mutlak have little influence; they are perceived as
ex-Baathists and a source of Iraq's present problems.)
Jarba conceded that few knew much about the constitution.
However, there was worry about what federalism means.
There is also growing tension between Kurds and Sunni
Arabs, and many Arabs perceive the constitution helps the
Kurds. PolCouns rejoined that the constitution was the
result of compromises but that the document would be the
best way to keep the country together. Jarba did not
disagree but said opposition already is very deep among the
Sunni Arabs in western Ninewa.
Khalilzad