C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003016

SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/20/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV
SUBJECT: IRAQ AMBASSADOR-DESIGNATE FEARS CHILL IN
IRAQ-EGYPT RELATIONS

REF: BAGHDAD 2782

Classified By: Charge d' Affaires David M. Satterfield for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d)


1. (C/NF) SUMMARY: Iraq Ambassador-designate to Egypt, Safia
al-Suhail, worries that Iraqi-Egyptian relations will chill
unless the Iraqi government takes the initiative after the
kidnapping and subsequent murder of the Egyptian Charge.
Al-Suhail told PolOff July 18 that before this tragic
incident, bilateral relations were on the upswing. The
Iraqis are now waiting word from the Egyptians to travel to
Cairo to deliver a condolence letter from President Talabini
to President Mubarak. To al-Suhail, however, the Iraqi
government is more interested in cultivating relations with
Iran than with Sunni Arab countries and risks cooling its
relations with Egypt. She also alleges that Iraqi Baathists
in Cairo, including the former Iraqi Ambassador there, are
lobbying the Egyptian government not to recognize the current
Iraqi regime. Much of what al-Suhail perceives as misguided
Iraqi focus is really disorganization in Baghdad and an
inability of the Iraqi bureaucracy to pursue multiple
initiatives at one time. Our encouragement of both
governments not to succumb to the recent setback and to
continue their efforts to improve their relationship will be
helpful. END SUMMARY.


2. (C/NF) Long-time Embassy contact and Iraq
Ambassador-designate to Egypt, Safia al-Suhail, warned PolOff
July 18 that Iraqi-Egyptian relations could chill unless the
Iraqi government takes the initiative to improve them after
the July 2 kidnapping of the Egyptian Charge in Iraq,
Ambassador Ihab al Sherif (Reftel). (Note: The Egyptian
government announced July 7 that al-Sherif's captors,
reportedly an al-Qaeda-affiliated group, had executed him.
End Note). Al-Suhail explained that before this tragic
incident occurred, the Egyptian government had granted her
agrement, and she was preparing to travel to Cairo to assume
her duties. (Bio note: Al-Suhail, a Shia Arab from the
prominent al-Tamimi tribe, is the women's activist who
attended the President's 2005 State of the Union address in
Washington. Al-Suhail supports former PM Ayad Allawi, and

she is critical of the current Iraqi government. Her
husband, Baktiar Amin, who is a Sunni Kurd, was the Minister
of Human Rights under the Allawi government. End
Bio note.)


3. (C/NF) Al-Suhail related that President Talabani had
asked her to deliver a condolence letter to his Egyptian
counterpart Mubarak. The Iraqi Foreign Ministry had sent a
dipnote to the Egyptian MFA requesting a suitable travel date
to deliver the letter. The Egyptians had not given the
Iraqis a date, and rather, asked them to wait awhile. In the
meantime, the Egyptian Embassy in Baghdad had virtually
closed its operations, leaving one employee to answer the
phone. Iraqis requiring Egyptian visas must now travel to
Amman, explained al-Suhail. The comments of some Iraqi
officials suggesting that al-Sherif had possibly been killed
"because he was in the wrong place at the wrong time,"
perhaps even meeting with insurgents, had drawn the ire of
the Egyptians, she added.


4. (C/NF) Though Foreign Minister Zebari had assured
al-Suhail he would contact the Egyptians again about the
travel date, Zebari had left with the Prime Minister to Iran
without doing so. Al-Suhail opined that the Iraqi government
was more focused on Iranian ties than with relations with
Egypt and other Sunni Arab countries. This lopsided approach
would do little to assuage the fears of Sunni Arabs in Iraq
and other countries that the current Iraqi government might
ally with Iran to their detriment, she alleged.


5. (C/NF) Meanwhile, Iraqi Baathists residing in Cairo were
lobbying the Egyptian government not to recognize the Iraqi
government, asserted al-Suhail. She claimed that the head of
this lobby effort is former Iraqi Ambassador Mohsen Khalil,
who received political asylum in Egypt. Al-Suhail added that
Mustapha Bakri, who heads an Egyptian opposition party and
had supported Saddam Hussein, was also aiding Iraqi Baathists
efforts to erode a still-delicate bilateral relationship.
Al-Suhail observed that the Iraqi MFA's administrative
undersecretary, Sa'ad al-Hayani, was in some way complicit
with this Baathist lobby effort. He had stalled on her
agrement paperwork, she complained.


6. (C/NF) Comment: Some of what al-Suhail sees as conspiracy
or misguided focus within the Iraqi government is, in fact,
the result of bureaucratic disorganization in Baghdad. The
Iraqi MFA, for example, takes few initiatives on even routine
matters in the absence of Foreign Minister Zebari. The Prime
Minister's office likewise has great trouble organizing
itself to give guidance to the MFA. Thus, the PM's office
can focus its work on a trip to Iran, but that process means
its staffers will take no time on others issues such as, for
example, repairing relations with Egypt. Nonetheless, from
our perspective in Baghdad, al-Suhail's conclusion that the
kidnapping and reported murder of the Egyptian Charge has
chilled the fragile Iraqi-Egyptian bilateral ties appears
correct. Our encouragement of both governments not to
succumb to the recent setback and to continue seeking to
improve their relationship will be helpful. It would be
useful, for example, for the Egyptian MFA to encourage the
Iraqis to send th
eir delegation sooner rather than later. End Comment.


7. (U) REO HILLA, REO BASRA, REO MOSUL, and REO KIRKUK,
minimize considered.
Satterfield