C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002923

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2025
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: IECI AUGUST VOTER REGISTRATION LIKELY TO BE
DELAYED AND UPSET BARZANI

REF: BAGHDAD 2495

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford.
Reasons 1.4(b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary. Independent Electoral Commission of
Iraq Chief Electoral Officer Allami believes the start
of the voter registration update period might be
delayed until August 7. IECI is experienced in
handling slight delays in schedule, so this one-week
delay should not pose a serious threat to the rest of
the electoral timeline. The referendum law is likely
to pass shortly; the Transitional National Assembly
discussed the two-page draft law prepared by its legal
committee on July 11. The 107,000 people, mostly
Kurds, who registered in Kirkuk January 17-25 under an
exceptional provision, will have to formally
reregister during the August update exercise to
participate in the upcoming referendum and December
elections. This requirement will likely irk Barzani.
We will work closely with Barzani to win his
cooperation so Kirkuk avoids a Kurdish boycott. End
Summary.

Slight Delay Expected
--------------


2. (C) Independent Electoral Commission of Iraq
(IECI) Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) Allami confirmed
to PolOff on July 10 that the IECI might need to
postpone the voter registration update period. In the
worst case, he said, IECI would delay the start of the
registration period until August 7 and shorten the
period from four weeks to three weeks. He cited
delays in signing contracts for printing, logistics
support and public outreach/media campaigns as the
main reasons for the possible delay. So far, only the
contract for printing of voter lists has been signed.


3. (C) Security preparations to protect approximately
550 voter registration centers seem to be picking up
after a slow start. At last week's interagency
meeting on elections security, a representative from
the Ministry of Defense declared that MOD intends to
provide specialized training for its troops guarding
the centers. IECI CEO Allami hopes to make
significant progress on security coordination during
an upcoming July 14 IECI nation-wide meeting that will

include participation from 18 IECI governorate
directors and their security counterparts. Like the
January elections, Allami said that security
conditions in Anbar and Ninewah would determine
whether IECI would be able to open registration
centers in those provinces. He said the majority of
centers would be in schools and staffed largely by
teachers. (Comment: Not opening the centers in Anbar
could discourage Sunni Arab participation in the
political process. And, if centers do not open in
Ninewah, the Christian community may accuse the IECI
of bias against them. Reftel describes the voter
registration update program in more detail. End
Comment.)

Referendum Law
--------------


4. (C) The referendum law seems likely to pass
shortly; the Transitional National Assembly (TNA)
discussed for the first time the draft law prepared by
its Legal Committee on July 11. IECI Commissioner
Hamdia (strictly protect) has been unofficially
advising the Legal Committee responsible for drafting
the law and, she has widely consulted with
international electoral experts. Although unlikely,
the current draft may still undergo changes as issues
are deliberated. For example, in a July 10
consultation meeting with the Legal Committee, Hamdia
had to explain that the Out-of-Country voting for the
referendum is not possible under the TAL.


5. (C) The two-page draft referendum law under
consideration by the TNA formally authorizes the IECI
to implement the referendum and certify the results.
It clarifies that those having been born on or before
31 December 1987 are eligible to vote. Additionally,
the draft states that the question in the referendum
ballot will be "Do agree on the draft of the ballot or
not." The draft law referendum law is brief because
it refers to CPA order 92 (Creation of IECI) and
Article 11 of the TAL (Iraqi citizenship).

"Reregister" 107,000 Kirkuk Kurds?
--------------


6. (C) According to IECI Commissioner Safwat (a
Kurd), those who were allowed to same-day register and
vote on January 30, as well as the 107,000 people,
mostly Kurds, who registered in Kirkuk January 17-25
under an exceptional provision, must formally register
during the August update exercise to participate in
the upcoming referendum and December election. Safwat
said that it was never intended for the exceptional
registration cases to be added permanently to the
voter roll. In the case of Kirkuk, Safwat explained
that the last-minute solution to avoid a Kirkuk
provincial council election boycott by the KDP and PUK
leadership led to the agreement that the IECI would
accept the 1957 census document as an acceptable
identity document for the large number of mostly
undocumented Kurds who claimed to be Kirkuk residents.
The 1957 census is considered accurate and took place
before Saddam Hussein's Arabization program, said
Safwat.


7. (C) However, Safwat continued, 1957 census
documents are not widely available and obtaining them
is problematic, implying that many of the 107,000 who
registered in January unlikely had authentic 1957
census documents. To avoid a similar situation,
Safwat has been advising Kirkuk leaders that authentic
identity papers will be strictly required during the
upcoming August registration period. Sawfat said that
the Ministry of Interior (MOI) is in possession of
1957 census documents and, to avoid another crisis in
Kirkuk, he asked Poloff to quietly press the MOI to
make them available to Kirkuk residents.


8. (C) In a separate meeting, former IFES team leader
to the IECI Jarret Blanc agreed with PolOff that the
Kurdish registration issue in Kirkuk could potentially
be contentious and misunderstood. He suggested a
vigorous IECI public awareness campaign, specially
targeting and encouraging the 107,000 Kirkuk residents
to reregister in August, was in order. At the same
time, Kurdish leader Masood Barzani should be
approached to win his cooperation, opined Blanc.


9. (C) Comment. Delays in the return of the Board of
Commissioners and key administrative staffers after
their meeting with UN/EAD Pirelli in Amman (10 days
total outside of Iraq) did not help IECI to meet its
recent deadlines. However, minor delays in the
schedule are nothing new for IECI, and this slight
postponement should not adversely affect overall
electoral preparations. IECI CEO Allami seems
confident that the registration period could be
shortened in the event of a delay, but the Board of
Commissioners may decide to extend the registration
period into September, causing pressures to reduce
time periods on other electoral events that follow -
including the exhibition and challenges period. In
December 2004, Masood Barzani was dissatisfied with
the Kurdish voter registration process and this was
one of the factors leading to his threat to withdraw
from the Kirkuk local elections. Looking ahead to the
constitution referendum, the "second" registration of
107,000 Kirkuk, mostly Kurdish "residents" will likely
upset Barzani. Barzani could well complain about
people having to register again. We will work closely
with him to win his early cooperation so Kirkuk avoids
a possible Kurdish boycott of the re-registration
process. End Comment.


10. (U) REO HILLAH, REO BASRAH, REO MOSUL, and REO
KIRKUK, minimize considered.


Satterfield