C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 002805

SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2025
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM EPET IZ
SUBJECT: TNA MEMBER QASIM DAOUD ON CONSTITUTION, SISTANI,
AND POSSIBLE BREAKUP OF UNITED IRAQI ALLIANCE

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford.
Reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY. Prominent Shia political figure,
parliamentarian and Assembly constitutional committee
member Qasim Daoud said 30 June the committee has been
reluctant to confront sensitive issues such as Kirkuk,
federalism, and Arab identity. Daoud supported the
TAL language for Arab identity that says only "Arabs
of Iraq are part of the Arab nation". Daoud said he
met last week with Sistani who held reservations about
federalism. Reportedly, Sistani worried that
neighboring countries would interfere in Iraq without
a strong central government. Sistani allegedly shared
the USG view that the central government should own
Iraq's natural resources. According to Daoud, Sistani
also believes that the electoral law be changed to
multiple rather than a single electoral district for
the next elections. Daoud opined that in the next
elections the Shia Islamist party SCIRI would seek to
run without entangling alliances. By contrast, hardj-
line Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr would likely with
Deputy Prime Minister Chalabi for the December
elections. Daoud, who had been on Prime Minister's
Allawi election list, said he probably would jump ship
to join SCIRI given its grassroots support made
possible by extensive Iranian patronage. END
SUMMARY.

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Views on Federalism and Arab Identity
--------------


2. (C/NF) TNA constitutional committee member Qassim
Daoud told Poloff 30 June he believes the committee
will make the constitution deadline, although he
admitted the committee is avoiding crucial issues like
federalism, Kirkuk, and Iraq's Arab identity rather
than confronting them outright. Having so many of the
committee's key players out of Iraq has slowed
progress. Moreover, broad agreements will be even
harder once the Sunni Arabs join the committee in
force, Daoud predicted. Daoud also commented about:

--ARAB IDENTITY: Daoud said he would support the TAL
language that states the "Arabs

of Iraq are part of
the Arab nation". Iraq is multi-ethnic and it is not
fair to force an Arab identity on them, he mused.

--FEDERALISM: Daoud listened to the USG position as
relayed by PolOff that the central government should
own Iraq's resources. (Note: Daoud in septel was the
first one to raise with PolOff the proposal that
natural resources would be owned by the regions, and
revenues would be split 50/50 by the center and
regions.) Daoud responded that Sistani also wanted
natural resources to be owned by the central
government. Daoud asked USG position on one large
Southern Shia region. PolOff responded that we would
support a federal structure that promotes the unity of
Iraq. One large "Shia state" in the South might
incite sectarian divisions, suggested PolOff.

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Daoud and VP 'Abd al Mehdi Visit Ayatollah Sistani
-------------- --------------


3. (C/NF) Daoud detailed 30 June his and Vice
President Abdel Mehdi's visit to Nasiriyah and Najaf,
which he described as very productive and encouraging.
In Nasiriyah, they were received by hundreds of people
and were able to mingle with and discuss the
constitution with them. Daoud said he was struck at
how peaceful the area was and yet so impoverished; he
bemoaned the lack of reconstruction projects in the
area to date. Daoud complained that the US, NGOs, and
the ITG always used the excuse of "security" for
slowing reconstruction efforts; he asserted this
argument holds no water in the South.


4. (C/NF) Daoud said Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani
remained suspicious about federalism. According to
Daoud, Sistani fears a weak central government will
draw neighboring countries to interfere in Iraqi
affairs. Daoud said Sistani specifically mentioned
Iranian interference: he feared that if there were
Shia regions in the South with significant
responsibility and autonomy, Iran would have a greater
opportunity to build strong and overly influential
relationships with them.


5. (C/NF) Daoud also reported that Sistani also
stressed he would intervene in Iraqi politics again if
the electoral system is not changed before the next
election. Sistani believed the system must be changed
from single-district to provincial-based elections,
which would prevent Kurdish fraud from affecting the
number of representatives allotted the rest of the
country and could also encourage greater Sunni
participation. (Note: PolOff told him the IECI would
need to be apprised immediately of changes in the
election system so that it could do its own planning.
Daoud said he would raise the issue with them. A new
election law could be necessary. End Note.)

-------------- ---
Daoud Claims UIA to Break Apart, Might Join SCIRI
-------------- ---


6. (C/NF) Daoud said that the United Iraqi Alliance
is falling apart and will not stand for the next
elections. SCIRI wants to go it alone and Muqtada al-
Sadr is likely to split off with Chalabi, he
continued. (Note: Chalabi deputy Nabil al-Mussawi
separately claimed to PolOff 29 June that the INC
hopes to soon announce its official intention to leave
the UIA. Mussawi said they are trying to solidify the
alliance with Muqtada al-Sadr.)


7. (C/NF) Daoud said Da'wa will also go on its own
but will be hamstrung by its lack of grassroots
support. Daoud believes Allawi will pair up with the
Sunnis. Daoud said he could not join with Allawi,
going so far as to call him a "dictator" because of
his conspiratorial mindset and leadership style.
Daoud added that Allawi has even rejected Daoud's
attempts to meet with him because he thinks Daoud
betrayed him by wanting to join the government when
Allawi opposed the idea. Daoud claimed over half of
Allawi's Iraqiya bloc in the Assembly (23 individuals)
wanted to leave the list with him. However, he
convinced them to remain with al-Iraqiya for the time
being to avoid showing outright dissension within the
list.


8. (C/NF) In the next elections, Daoud said he will
probably join a political alliance with SCIRI,
pointing to his close ties to VP 'Abd al Mehdi. Daoud
said SCIRI lacked a cohesive or strong ideology unlike
Da'wa with its extensive writings of its Islamist
creed. Moreover, SCIRI has been very successful at
building significant grassroots support in Iraq
through its TV channel, al-Furat. SCIRI also benefits
from its support for Shia religious events like Ashura
to capitalize on the three million people that attend
them. Daoud claimed the reason for SCIRI's success
was financing -- which he acknowledged came from Iran.
On overall Iranian political support for Iraqi
parties, Daoud posited that SCIRI was the largest
benefactor, followed by Da'wa, and then Ahmed Chalabi.

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Daoud to Visit Iran in August
--------------


9. (C/NF) Daoud said he was still in a wait and see
mode about the new Iranian President Mahmad
Ahmadinejad. He will have a better idea in late
August when he visits Tehran at the invitation of
President Khatami. What most concern Daoud are
Iranian nuclear ambitions and their interference in
Iraqi affairs. He claims he will address these
matters on his visit.


10. (C/NF) Comment: We have heard from others that
the UIA is starting to disintegrate, but we assess it
will likely hold together until the December
elections. It still shows signs of functionality; for
example, the 21-man leadership committee still holds
frequent meetings. Daoud's split from Allawi will
deal a large blow to Allawi's secular support base;
Daoud jumping to SCIRI will let the Shia Islamist
party claim the backing of a major "secular" Shia. It
is not surprising Daoud would choose this new
alignment given his significant contacts to Sistani
and the hawza and his obvious ambition. Daoud has
striven hard to maintain positive relations with all
of the Iraqi political entities, such as the Islamists
and Kurds, in order to secure his own political
standing.


11. (C/NF) Comment continued: Regarding the
federalism issue, if Daoud is to be believed,
Sistani's position appears to be close to ours with
respect to the central government's ownership of
natural resources. Daoud has been one of the backers
of regional ownership and we will watch with interest
if Sistani's dislike of the idea will sway him and
other members of the constitutional committee. Kurds,
of course, will continue to press hard for regional
ownership. This will be a key element of the
federalism debate.


12. (U) REO HILLA, REO BASRA, REO MOSUL, and REO
KIRKUK, minimize considered.



Satterfield