Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
05BAGHDAD2445
2005-06-09 02:18:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Baghdad
Cable title:  

CHARGE DISCUSSES IRAQI POLITICS, COORDINATION WITH

Tags:  PGOV PREL ECON EAID PINS KDEM IZ 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 002445 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EAID PINS KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: CHARGE DISCUSSES IRAQI POLITICS, COORDINATION WITH
AID DONORS, AND PREPARATIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES
WITH PLANNING MINISTER SALEH


Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission David M. Satterfield for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 002445

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/07/2015
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EAID PINS KDEM IZ
SUBJECT: CHARGE DISCUSSES IRAQI POLITICS, COORDINATION WITH
AID DONORS, AND PREPARATIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES
WITH PLANNING MINISTER SALEH


Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission David M. Satterfield for
reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Minister of Planning and Development
Cooperation Barham Saleh on June 7 told the Charge that the
initial steps taken by the Iraqi Transitional Government
(ITG) and Prime Minister Jaafari were weak and lackluster.
On the constitution, Shi'a political groups are pushing to
complete a first draft by July 15, subject to further
revision before the August 15 deadline for approval by the
Transitional National Assembly (TNA): religion, federalism,
and regime type are the most important constitutional issues.
The Minister advised the USG to remain consistently engaged
in Iraq and to avoid ceding influence to Iran. Saleh remains
unhappy with Jaafari's decision to make Finance Minister
Allawi the focal point for coordinating donor aid, telling us
there has been no formal reassignment of the portfolio in
writing. The Minister has completed a draft of the National
Development Strategy that will highlight economic reform, the
need for private sector development, and other pro-market
initiatives. Saleh has received a letter from the Jordanian
Minister of Planning saying that Amman would prefer to
postpone the IRFFI donors' conference until August or
September. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) Charge Satterfield and emboffs met on June 7 with
Barham Saleh, Minister of Planning and Development
Cooperation.

--------------
ITG MUST AVOID WEAKNESS, OVER-REACHING
--------------


3. (C) Assessing the general situation in Iraq, Saleh said
the country's problems can be solved, but only if the ITG
adopts a line of march based on a realistic understanding of
the country's history and complexity. In particular, the new
majority comprising the victims of Saddam's regime--Shi'a and
Kurds--must avoid the temptation to over-reach. The ITG's
initial steps in this regard have been lackluster, and Prime

Minister Jaafari's leadership has been weak, according to
Saleh. Jaafari has been acting as a factional rather than
national leader and does not understand the complexity of
Iraq, especially the need to mollify the Sunni minority.
Moreover, Saleh added, Jaafari and his party have not honored
their commitments, such as the scope of the Planning
portfolio (see paragraph 8 below) and other promises to the
Kurds. (COMMENT: Saleh's comments track with the accounts of
Rowsch Shaways and President Talabani regarding a July 8
"confrontation" with PM Jafari over his presumed failings
(SEPTEL). END COMMENT)

--------------
CONSTITUTION APPARENTLY ON THE FAST TRACK
--------------


4. (C) Saleh told us that the Shi'a were pushing to complete
a first draft of the constitution by July 15, subject to
further revision before the August 15 deadline for approval
by the TNA. (NOTE: Constitution Committee Chairman Hammoudi
said in a separate meeting with poloff that this was his goal
as well. END NOTE) A "kitchen group" including Saleh,
Deputy President Mahdi, and Deputy Prime Minister Shaways was
working behind the scenes to expedite the process. He
highlighted three issues as most important:

-- The role of religion in the state.

-- Definition of federalism: Saleh said he would like to see
political authority and revenues devolved as much as possible
to the regions.

-- Type of regime: Saleh admitted that a presidential regime
would be more "natural" for most Iraqis and appeared the
preference of the Shi'a. The Kurds, however, will press for
a parliamentary regime.

--------------
NEED TO CONTROL INSURGENCY
--------------


5. (C) Saleh said he sees dangerous signs that Sunni
religious agitation is being politicized, raising the
possibility that the insurgency will metastasize into a
broader Sunni insurrection. To forestall this, in his
opinion, the new Shi'a majority must reach out to moderate
Sunni leaders such as TNA Speaker al-Hashimi, who need to be
made to appear strong and credible in their constituents'
eyes. The Minister concurred with the Charge's assessment of
the importance for the ITG of harmonizing its message on the
insurgency both internally and in communicating with the
Iraqi public.

--------------
ADVICE: STAY ENGAGED
--------------


6. (C) Turning to how the USG should proceed in Iraq, Saleh
said we must first build on what has worked. The strict
timetable imposed on the lifespan of the Iraqi Interim
Government and on the constitution-writing process shares
much of the responsibility for the successful elements of
recent political developments. The U.S. also has done an
effective job of Sunni outreach, which most Iraqis view as
serious and credible. Moreover, Saleh continued, we ought
not ignore regions such as the Kurdish north that have
remained relative secure and stable. The Minister noted in
this regard that he was traveling to Sulaimaniyah and Erbil
on June 9 for meetings with Regional President Barzani and
other regional figures.


7. (C) The U.S. can do a better job of staying consistently
engaged in Iraq and maintaining a mid-point between
intervention and indifference, Saleh told us. We should not
under-estimate the importance of our role and influence here.
In the Minister's assessment, the U.S. is one of three
critical factors in the country; the other two--Ayatollah
SISTANI and Iran--are also foreign.

--------------
COORDINATING DONOR COORDINATION
--------------


8. (C) Saleh told us he was surprised when he learned that
the ITG's focal point for coordinating donor aid was to be
Finance Minister Allawi. The Planning Minister believes this
was done largely for partisan reasons, so a member of
Jaafari's party could be seen as responsible for large flows
of donor aid. (NOTE: Information from local Canadian aid
representative Heather Cruden tends to substantiate Saleh's
suspicions. Jaafari's chief of staff Laith Koubba told her
late last month that the donor aid focal point was the person
of the Minister of Finance and not the institution of the
Ministry of Finance. END NOTE) Saleh commented that, beyond
the dent this put in his own standing, the move had been done
in a way that created unnecessary confusion. First, there is
simply no time to establish a donor coordination unit in
Finance in time for the Brussels and IRFFI conferences.
Moreover, there has been no formal reassignment of the
portfolio; Saleh has seen nothing in writing about this from
the Prime Minister's office. Saleh and Finance Minister
Allawi had been convened by Deputy Prime Minister Chalabi to
try to resolve the issue on June 6, but it appears little
headway was made. Summing up, the Minister said, "The way
things are going is a bad omen."


9. (C) Charge noted that the Prime Minister's appointment of
the Finance Minister as focal point for donor coordination
might not be optimal, but it would be counter-productive to
second-guess this decision now. At this Saleh stepped down a
bit, saying he recognized the need to stay engaged with all
his ITG counterparts and put Iraq's best foot forward at
Brussels and the other meetings.

--------------
ECONOMIC VISION
--------------


10. (C) Saleh told us he remained a "non-planner" despite his
new portfolio and promised he would not "go native" during
his tenure at the Planning Ministry. He wants to highlight
the Ministry's role in attracting and nurturing private
sector investment, and for it to serve as a resource center
for all types of investment.


11. (C) Saleh said a committee in the Ministry, led by Senior
Deputy Minister Faik Abdol Rasool, has completed an economic
strategy document for presentation at the Brussels and the
IRFFI conferences. This strategy focuses on economic reform
and the need for private sector development. (NOTE: We will
obtain a copy from the Ministry and share with Washington.
END NOTE)

--------------
POSSIBLE DELAY IN IRFFI CONFERENCE
--------------


12. (C) Saleh mentioned in passing a letter he had just
received from the Jordanian Planning Minister, stating that
the Jordanian hosts would prefer that the IRFFI conference
take place in August or September, and not in July. Saleh
appeared nonplussed by this news. (NOTE: The Minister's
chief of staff has promised to send us a copy of this letter,
which we will share. At a separate meeting of donor
representatives on June 7, EC Iraq Mission chief Ana
Gallo-Alvarez said her Amman office had heard that the
Jordanians would prefer a September date for the IRFFI
conference. Representatives from Canada--chair of the donors
committee--and the World Bank said they had not been
informed. END NOTE)


13. (U) REO Hillah, Basrah, Kirkuk, and Mosul Minimize
considered.
Jeffrey