PARAGUAY: DUARTE SHAKES UP CABINET AS POLLS SHOW

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ASUNCION 000670 SIPDIS SENSITIVE STATE PASS TO USAID (LAC/AA) SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD DAN JOHNSON NSC FOR KIM BREIER E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PA SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: DUARTE SHAKES UP CABINET AS POLLS SHOW DECLINING SUPPORT FOR HIS ADMINISTRATION REF: A. ASUNCION 00627 AND PRECEDING ¶B. ASUNCION 00589 AND PRECEDING ¶1. (U) Summary: On May 14, President Nicanor Duarte Frutos sacked Health Minister Julio Cesar Velazquez, who in recent months has been campaigning to become Colorado (ANR) party president. Duarte appointed someone with a more technical -- i.e., less political -- background to replace him. Duarte reportedly also asked Minister of Labor and Justice Juan Dario Monges and Minister of Defense Roberto Gonzalez to resign so that they could dedicate themselves to their respective campaigns for the ANR presidency. Monges will likely step down soon. Gonzalez apparently chose instead to give up or delay aspirations to preside over the party. The ouster of Velazquez and likely ouster of Monges come on the heels of several polls showing declining support for the Duarte administration. In a surprise, unrelated development, Minister of Finance Dionisio Borda resigned May 19 (septel to follow). Foreign Minister Leila Rachid will also leave this summer. End Summary. Health Minister Sacked -------------- ¶2. (U) On May 14, President Nicanor Duarte Frutos sacked Health Minister Julio Cesar Velazquez. His removal followed a controversy over an inquiry into his administration of funds and projects as the former Mayor of Fernando de la Mora (ref B),complaints about his performance as Health Minister, and complaints that his recent focus on party politics distracted him from running the Ministry. (Note: In recent months, Velazquez has been campaigning to become ANR party president. He also served as the head of a committee exploring the possibility of a Constitutional reform that would permit the President of Paraguay to run for re-election (refs A and B). End Note.) ¶3. (U) Commentators suggest that Velazquez "was pushed after he refused to jump." Velazquez's own assertions that he turned down other positions that Duarte offered him support such an assessment. Duarte offered faint praise for Velazquez's performance as Health Minister, and cited a need for someone "more technical, less political" as the reason for his decision to replace him. ¶4. (SBU) Comment: Velazquez's removal puts into play the votes and support of his strong ANR following in the populous Central Department. Despite leading the on-again, off-again bid for a Constitutional reform that would enable Duarte to seek a second term, Velazquez would like to succeed Duarte as ANR candidate for President should such a bid fail. Many commentators assert that Duarte removed Velazquez because he posed too much of threat to Duarte's leadership, rather than for his performance in office. Velazquez will likely attempt to forge an alliance to challenge Duarte in the ANR's upcoming internal elections. Commentators suggest that such an alliance might include backers of Goli Stroessner, grandson of former dictator Alfredo Stroessner. The younger Stroessner recently revealed his own political aspirations, to the dismay of many in Paraguay, but with a name still revered by others. End Comment. Technocrat Appointed to Take Over Ministry -------------- ¶5. (U) Duarte appointed Maria Teresa Leon Mendaro to replace Velazquez. Leon is a 54-year-old pathologist and professor who moved up through the Health Ministry ranks from director of a dispensary in Caacupe to head of the Ministry's epidemiology department. She is credited with spearheading a successful campaign to combat dengue fever, and served as one of Velazquez's technical advisers. ¶6. (U) Upon accepting her new appointment, Leon pledged to improve services in the Ministry's hospitals and the effectiveness of its staff, and signaled her desire to enhance cooperation among practitioners working in the country's various health care institutions. Delivering on a pledge to de-politicize the Ministry's key staff, she immediately reinstated technical experts to senior leadership positions that Velazquez had filled with political allies. ¶7. (SBU) Comment: The Ambassador and USAID Mission Director will call on Leon as soon as possible to discuss issues such as a proposed World Bank loan for the Ministry, the new Minister's reported plans to focus on reproductive health care, and a program started under a previous Minister to decentralize the Ministry's budget process. The decentralization program permitted some health care institutions to collect fees for services and empowered local authorities to determine how best to utilize the fees collected. Post will report on the meeting septel. End Comment. Two Other Ministers Asked to Resign -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Duarte reportedly also asked Minister of Labor and Justice Juan Dario Monges and Minister of Defense Roberto Gonzalez to resign. They, too, have been campaigning for the ANR party presidency over the past few months. Monges told the press that he would step down "before the end of the year," but there is intense speculation that he will depart as early as the end of this week. Press reports indicate that Duarte has selected ANR Deputy Mario Morel Pintos to succeed Monges, and that Morel will be sworn in May 20. (Comment: Not surprisingly, Morel also hails from Central Department. Appointing him to replace Monges could mitigate the negative impact for Duarte of removing Velazquez. End Comment.) Gonzalez, on the other hand, apparently chose to give up or delay his aspirations to preside over the party and will remain at the Ministry of Defense for the foreseeable future. Polls Show Declining Support for Administration -------------- -- ¶9. (U) The ouster of Velazquez and likely ouster of Monges come on the heels of several polls showing declining support for the Duarte administration. An April 2005 COIN Consultancy poll showed that Duarte's approval rating (i.e., the number of respondents who rated his performance in office as "good" or "excellent") had fallen to 13.6 percent, down from 22.9 percent in April 2004, and down from the 37 percent of the popular vote Duarte received in the April 2003 presidential election. Duarte's disapproval rating (i.e., the number of respondents who rated his performance as "bad" or "very bad") rose from 35 percent in April 2004 to 40.6 percent in April 2005. According to the COIN organization, respondents in the April 2005 poll still believe Duarte has good intentions, but they are increasingly frustrated by the lack of concrete measures to address unemployment, corruption and public safety. ¶10. (SBU) A separate April 2005 poll, conducted by a company called First, gauged opinions towards the members of Duarte's cabinet. Of the three Ministers who were asked to resign, Velazquez actually received the highest approval rating (35.3 percent) and Gonzalez the lowest (21.4 percent). Gonzalez was also dead last among the ten Ministers rated in the poll, whereas Velazquez was fourth overall. (Comment: The results of the First poll support the assertion that Duarte removed Velazquez because he posed a threat to Duarte's leadership, rather than for his performance in office. Gonzalez, on the other hand, may be hanging on because he is a personal friend of the President. Some suggest that his position also would be more difficult to fill than Velazquez's. End Comment.) Other Departures -------------- ¶11. (U) In a surprise move May 19, Minister of Finance Dionisio Borda announced his resignation (see septel). Foreign Minister Leila Rachid will also leave this summer, as has been expected. KEANE