PARAGUAY: POLITICAL PACT MAY GIVE COLORADOS A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASUNCION 000605 SIPDIS STATE FOR WHA/BSC NSC FOR KIM BREIER TREASURY FOR OSIA MAUREEN WAFER TREASURY FOR OTA WARFIELD, VAN KOCH, MILLAR SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD DAN JOHNSON E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2015 TAGS: PGOV KCRM PINR PA SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: POLITICAL PACT MAY GIVE COLORADOS A TENUOUS SENATE MAJORITY Classified By: Political Chief James P. Merz, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary. The ruling Colorado Party has formed a make shift alliance with a handful of opposition Senators from the left side of the political spectrum in Paraguay. This alliance has already produced election of a dissident Senator from the opposition Liberal Party to a key committee. Its viability at this juncture rests on a number of "deals" among the Colorados and the other Senators -- in particular on selection of candidates to several key positions. By definition, the alliance is fragile given that it represents a curious marriage between, on the one hand, the ruling Colorado party, which historically has been anti-communist and pro-U.S., but also has a vested interest in preserving the status quo and, on the other, a group of Senators who historically, in principle, have sought to challenge the status quo but simultaneously have been anti-U.S. and leftist. End Summary. The Emerging Alliance -------------- ¶2. (U) On 4/21, the Senate elected left-leaning Sen. Guggiari of the Liberal Party over Sen. Saguier, also of the Liberal Party, to fill a vacant seat on the Council of Magistrates. (Note: The Council of Magistrates is an influential body of experts charged with responsibility for vetting candidates seeking Senate appointment as prosecutors or judges.) Guggiari's election became possible when he and two other dissident Senators from the Liberal Party (the Liberal Party has a total of 12 Senators) formed an alliance with the 17 Senators from the Colorado Party, the 2 Senators from the socialist Country in Solidarity Party (PPS),and the one Senator from the chameleon National Encounter Party (PEN) to create a majority in the 45-member Senate. ¶3. (C) The emerging alliance that produced Guggiari's election appears to rest on a number of "deals," some of which involve Senate election of candidates to key positions. Notwithstanding the fact that his party only has two Senators, Sen. Carlos Filizzola, the Leader of the leftist Country in Solidarity Party, has assumed a pivotal role in deals brokered by Colorado Party Senate leader, Juan Carlos 
("Cale") Galaverna. Filizzola, for example, has apparently agreed to ally PPS with the Colorados in exchange for their commitment to support Filizzola's candidacy as the next President of the Senate when elections are held in June. Filizzola has also gained the support of the Colorado Party, and the other parties that have entered this new alliance, to adopt legislation in favor of the controversial expropriation of a significant tract of land in the Chaco. Filizzola's Vote on Rienzi Under Review -------------- ¶4. (C) Filizzola came under fire from within PPS for signaling readiness to support the extension of Supreme Court Justice Wildo Rienzi, a tarnished Colorado Party stalwart whose term expired in April. According to Filizzola's cousin Rafael Filizzola, who is a Deputy in the Congress' House of Deputies, Carlos has since retracted PPS support for Rienzi. However, this matter is far from resolved, as Filizzola stood with Galaverna in the Senate on a 4/28 vote to place a proposal on Rienzi's tenure on the 5/5 Senate agenda. Similarly, while Filizzola has reportedly indicated he would not accept the renewal of Attorney General Oscar Latorre's term, which expires in August, he has not denied he is beholden to support some other Colorado-backed candidate. Liberal Party on its Heels -------------- ¶5. (C) According to its ideology, the Liberal Party is committed to a government and economy unfettered by regulations and restrictions. Sens. Guggiari, Vera Bejarano, and Laino, the three Senators who recently broke away from their party to form a pact with the Colorados, do not subscribe to these liberal principles, favoring instead a larger role for the State in addressing the needs of the population. Informally, these three Senators, members of the Liberal Party by virtue of long familial association, had already set themselves apart from the rest of the party. Their decision, however, to form an alliance with the Colorado Party, the Liberal Party's longest historical opponent, represents a significant blow to the Liberal Party's image as the leading opposition party. On 4/26, Sen. Armando Espinola, the President of the Liberal Party's bench in the Senate told PolCoun that he supported sanctioning the three dissident Senators and kicking them out of the party altogether. Apparently, however, other leading Liberal Party representatives reject taking these extreme measures out of fear it would only undercut the Liberal Party's political base. Comment -------------- ¶6. (C) The staying power of this alliance and its prospects for producing a significant impact on Congressional decisions remain unclear. This pact is very much driven by the personal ambitions of two men, Colorado leader Galaverna and PPS leader Filizzola. Galaverna seeks a majority that will give the Colorados ascendancy in deciding on key jobs and preserving the Colorado Party's vested interest in the status quo, including by definition the Party's control of the country's political and economic agenda. ¶7. (C) Filizzola, on the other hand, is almost single-mindedly focused on becoming Senate President which he envisions as a springboard to developing a profile on the national political scene that would enable him to make a run at the Presidency in 2008. A leftist, opposed to the Colorado Party's historic grip on power and the corruption it fosters, Filizzola takes ideological stances on issues ranging from the expropriation of land for landless peasants to opposition to joint U.S.-Paraguay military exercises. Given they have been in power for over fifty years of continuous rule, the Colorados do not consider Filizzola a legitimate threat to their political base. Further, they themselves are not beyond accommodating PPS with a populist stance on certain issues provided it reinforces the patronage system the Colorados use to stay in power. Nevertheless, given the overarching tension between the agendas of these two parties in particular, the strength of this new alliance will be tested on a regular basis, resting in large measure on its ability to deliver candidates each wants to several key positions. KEANE