PARAGUAY: POLITICAL PACT MAY GIVE COLORADOS A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ASUNCION 000605

SIPDIS

STATE FOR WHA/BSC
NSC FOR KIM BREIER
TREASURY FOR OSIA MAUREEN WAFER
TREASURY FOR OTA WARFIELD, VAN KOCH, MILLAR
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD DAN JOHNSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/17/2015
TAGS: PGOV KCRM PINR PA
SUBJECT: PARAGUAY: POLITICAL PACT MAY GIVE COLORADOS A
TENUOUS SENATE MAJORITY


Classified By: Political Chief James P. Merz, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary. The ruling Colorado Party has formed a
make shift alliance with a handful of opposition Senators
from the left side of the political spectrum in Paraguay.
This alliance has already produced election of a dissident
Senator from the opposition Liberal Party to a key committee.
Its viability at this juncture rests on a number of "deals"
among the Colorados and the other Senators -- in particular
on selection of candidates to several key positions. By
definition, the alliance is fragile given that it represents
a curious marriage between, on the one hand, the ruling
Colorado party, which historically has been anti-communist
and pro-U.S., but also has a vested interest in preserving
the status quo and, on the other, a group of Senators who
historically, in principle, have sought to challenge the
status quo but simultaneously have been anti-U.S. and
leftist. End Summary.

The Emerging Alliance
--------------


2. (U) On 4/21, the Senate elected left-leaning Sen.
Guggiari of the Liberal Party over Sen. Saguier, also of the
Liberal Party, to fill a vacant seat on the Council of
Magistrates. (Note: The Council of Magistrates is an
influential body of experts charged with responsibility for
vetting candidates seeking Senate appointment as prosecutors
or judges.) Guggiari's election became possible when he and
two other dissident Senators from the Liberal Party (the
Liberal Party has a total of 12 Senators) formed an alliance
with the 17 Senators from the Colorado Party, the 2 Senators
from the socialist Country in Solidarity Party (PPS),and the
one Senator from the chameleon National Encounter Party (PEN)
to create a majority in the 45-member Senate.


3. (C) The emerging alliance that produced Guggiari's
election appears to rest on a number of "deals," some of
which involve Senate election of candidates to key positions.
Notwithstanding the fact that his party only has two
Senators, Sen. Carlos Filizzola, the Leader of the leftist
Country in Solidarity Party, has assumed a pivotal role in
deals brokered by Colorado Party Senate leader, Juan Carlos
("Cale") Galaverna. Filizzola, for example, has apparently
agreed to ally PPS with the Colorados in exchange for their
commitment to support Filizzola's candidacy as the next
President of the Senate when elections are held in June.
Filizzola has also gained the support of the Colorado Party,
and the other parties that have entered this new alliance, to
adopt legislation in favor of the controversial expropriation
of a significant tract of land in the Chaco.

Filizzola's Vote on Rienzi Under Review
--------------


4. (C) Filizzola came under fire from within PPS for
signaling readiness to support the extension of Supreme Court
Justice Wildo Rienzi, a tarnished Colorado Party stalwart
whose term expired in April. According to Filizzola's cousin
Rafael Filizzola, who is a Deputy in the Congress' House of
Deputies, Carlos has since retracted PPS support for Rienzi.
However, this matter is far from resolved, as Filizzola stood
with Galaverna in the Senate on a 4/28 vote to place a
proposal on Rienzi's tenure on the 5/5 Senate agenda.
Similarly, while Filizzola has reportedly indicated he would
not accept the renewal of Attorney General Oscar Latorre's
term, which expires in August, he has not denied he is
beholden to support some other Colorado-backed candidate.

Liberal Party on its Heels
--------------


5. (C) According to its ideology, the Liberal Party is
committed to a government and economy unfettered by
regulations and restrictions. Sens. Guggiari, Vera Bejarano,
and Laino, the three Senators who recently broke away from
their party to form a pact with the Colorados, do not
subscribe to these liberal principles, favoring instead a
larger role for the State in addressing the needs of the
population. Informally, these three Senators, members of the
Liberal Party by virtue of long familial association, had
already set themselves apart from the rest of the party.
Their decision, however, to form an alliance with the
Colorado Party, the Liberal Party's longest historical
opponent, represents a significant blow to the Liberal
Party's image as the leading opposition party. On 4/26, Sen.
Armando Espinola, the President of the Liberal Party's bench
in the Senate told PolCoun that he supported sanctioning the
three dissident Senators and kicking them out of the party
altogether. Apparently, however, other leading Liberal Party
representatives reject taking these extreme measures out of
fear it would only undercut the Liberal Party's political
base.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) The staying power of this alliance and its prospects
for producing a significant impact on Congressional decisions
remain unclear. This pact is very much driven by the
personal ambitions of two men, Colorado leader Galaverna and
PPS leader Filizzola. Galaverna seeks a majority that will
give the Colorados ascendancy in deciding on key jobs and
preserving the Colorado Party's vested interest in the status
quo, including by definition the Party's control of the
country's political and economic agenda.


7. (C) Filizzola, on the other hand, is almost
single-mindedly focused on becoming Senate President which he
envisions as a springboard to developing a profile on the
national political scene that would enable him to make a run
at the Presidency in 2008. A leftist, opposed to the
Colorado Party's historic grip on power and the corruption it
fosters, Filizzola takes ideological stances on issues
ranging from the expropriation of land for landless peasants
to opposition to joint U.S.-Paraguay military exercises.
Given they have been in power for over fifty years of
continuous rule, the Colorados do not consider Filizzola a
legitimate threat to their political base. Further, they
themselves are not beyond accommodating PPS with a populist
stance on certain issues provided it reinforces the patronage
system the Colorados use to stay in power. Nevertheless,
given the overarching tension between the agendas of these
two parties in particular, the strength of this new alliance
will be tested on a regular basis, resting in large measure
on its ability to deliver candidates each wants to several
key positions.
KEANE